around the league–wildcard round

NFL playoff predictions unplugged: A coach, scout, player pick wild-card winners

https://theathletic.com/2304760/2021/01/07/nfl-wild-card-predictions-playoffs/

With a lot of bumps along the way, the NFL has reached an on-time start to the postseason, and thanks to an expanded playoff format, the wild-card round will feature two days of triple-headers.

The Athletic asked one coach, one scout and one active player who will win each game this weekend and why. All three were granted anonymity in exchange for their candor. They’ll share their picks throughout the playoffs.

Colts at Bills

The coach thinks these are two of the league’s most balanced teams, good in all three phases of the game. But toward the end of the regular season, the Colts recorded two narrow victories over a bad Texans team and collapsed in the second half of a game against the Steelers. Meanwhile, all three men agreed the Bills are the NFL’s hottest team. If not for a Kyler Murray-to-DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary — one of the best plays of the year — Buffalo would be riding a 10-game winning streak.

“I wouldn’t say (the Bills are) dominant in any one area, but I think they’re balanced,” the scout said. “If one of the phases isn’t clicking, the other two phases can beat you. I think Indy, if they fall behind, is going to be in trouble. They’re not explosive enough with (Philip Rivers as) the quarterback.”

Added the player: “It’s not the Bills defense we’re used to seeing these past couple years, but they still have some big names. I think they’ll be able to contain T.Y. Hilton, and I don’t think Jonathan Taylor is going to run for a franchise-record number of yards.”

When Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen made his first playoff appearance, at Houston in the wild-card round a season ago, he completed 24 of 46 passes for 264 yards. But he’s a much-improved player this season, his third under offensive coordinator Brian Daboll.

“He looks super confident right now, they’re at home, and he knows he doesn’t have to do it alone,” the scout said. “I’m betting on him playing well.”

Coach’s pick: Bills

Player’s pick: Bills

Scout’s pick: Bills

Browns at Steelers

The coach liked the Browns to win this game before the team announced head coach Kevin Stefanski tested positive for COVID-19 and will not be on the sideline Sunday. He still likes them now.

“It’s going to be close again,” the coach said, “but if Mayfield is hot and they get their running game going, I think they can neutralize a really good defense.”

Pittsburgh ranks first in defensive DVOA, No. 1 against the pass and No. 5 against the run. But after starting 11-0, the Steelers went 1-4 to close the season. That skid began after the team lost edge rusher Bud Dupree to an ACL tear. Pittsburgh also didn’t have Robert Spillane for the final four games of the regular season, but coach Mike Tomlin said he could come off IR and be available for the wild-card round. That’d be big, as Spillane had been playing the most snaps of any Steelers inside linebacker after the team lost Devin Bush an ACL tear in October.

“You think about this linebacker corps and this front seven: When you don’t have them stuffing the run, it makes things tough,” the player said. “Add that to the fact their offense kind of regressed a little bit. Defenses kind of figured them out — low-high routes is all you do; you don’t ever throw the curveball. Now the (Pittsburgh) defense is on the field more. (Safety) Minkah (Fitzpatrick) is a great player, but all you gotta do is go away from him and (cornerback) Joe Haden (who is on the Reserve/COVID-19 list) and chip T.J. Watt. It’s a little tougher on those guys, and that’s probably why they lost the top seed to the Chiefs.

“It’s tough, but I think they’ve got a run in them. Tomlin is going to have them going. They win that first-round game, but we’ll see after that.”

The scout agrees with the player: The Steelers are vulnerable, but Cleveland isn’t the team to expose them.

“Cleveland hasn’t been in the playoffs,” the scout said. “They don’t have seasoned players who have been in the playoffs. I’ll go Pittsburgh with the sheer fact they have a more experienced roster, with a coach who has been in the playoffs. I think their defense will put pressure on Baker, force some turnovers and get some short fields and stop the run early.”

“I think you can throw on (the Steelers) if you can protect,” the scout added. “I don’t think their secondary is all that great other than Minkah. But I don’t think Cleveland is the team to do it.”

Coach’s pick: Browns

Player’s pick: Steelers

Scout’s pick: Steelers

Ravens at Titans

The Titans beat the Ravens in Baltimore in last year’s wild-card round and again in Week 11 of this season. But the coach and scout both doubt Tennessee’s defense, which allowed the most points per drive of any playoff team (2.56), will be good enough to top the Ravens again.

In Week 17, the Titans surrendered 84 yards on 14 carries to running back David Johnson, who mostly struggled this season while playing for a Texans rushing attack that ranked last in DVOA.

“Tennessee’s defense is broken,” the scout said. “I think Lamar (Jackson) is going to be able to get out of the pocket and force the ball down the field out of the pocket. (The Titans won’t) just keep him in the pocket and force Lamar to throw from a hole. (Baltimore will) move the pocket, push the ball downfield to Hollywood Brown. I think they can make enough plays and run the ball and play with a lead against Tennessee. Baltimore’s got the defense to keep (Derrick) Henry at bay, and they’ve got the playmakers in the secondary to keep hold of Tennessee’s physical receivers.”

In the second half of the season, Baltimore ranked fourth in offensive efficiency. The Ravens are riding a five-game winning streak, but only one of those wins came against a team with a winning record, the Browns.

“Based on the last two or three games, you have to give the edge to Baltimore,” the coach said. “They’re playing with a lot of confidence, and (Jackson is) throwing the ball reasonably well.”

The player likes Tennessee, though, because he doesn’t see the Ravens slowing down Henry, who ran for over 2,000 yards as the Titans built off last season’s success rather than regress as some pundits predicted, given Tannehill’s unexpected re-emergence.

“Their offense isn’t going anywhere,” the player said. “They’re clicking. They know exactly who they are.”

If the Titans can jump out to an early lead and then burn clock with an efficient ground game, Jackson will face pure passing situations behind a reshuffled offensive line.

Coach’s pick: Ravens

Player’s pick: Titans

Scout’s pick: Ravens

Bears at Saints

As of this writing, it’s unclear whether running back Alvin Kamara will play for the Saints. But regardless of his status, all three like New Orleans.

“If Kamara plays, they’ll be able to create some matchups, but even if he doesn’t, I still feel like (coach Sean) Payton will create matchups and manufacture ways to move the ball and create points,” the scout said. “… Payton seems to have such a keen understanding of skill sets and how to deploy players. He’ll figure it out.”

The Bears went on a three-game winning streak to get back in the playoff picture after Mitchell Trubisky reclaimed the starting quarterback job, but none of those wins came against playoff teams. Chicago also lost to the Packers twice after Trubisky returned to the starting role.

The player and coach both thought Trubisky’s return re-energized the Bears, but they believe Chicago’s offense doesn’t have enough firepower with him under center to keep pace with New Orleans.

“There are still inconsistencies there,” the coach said of Trubisky. “They went on a three-game roll offensively, but they weren’t playing against good defenses.”

Coach’s pick: Saints

Player’s pick: Saints

Scout’s pick: Saints

Rams at Seahawks

Rams quarterback Jared Goff’s status is uncertain. If he’s out, all three like Seattle to win comfortably. If he plays, they expect it to be a closer game, but they still pick the Seahawks because of how up-and-down the Rams offense has been. According to Football Outsiders’ variance metric, Los Angeles has the NFL’s ninth-most inconsistent offense.

“Do they get Goff and you see a high volume of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods? Or do you see a Rams team that is going to lay a dud on offense?” the player said. “I have no idea who is going to show up. That’s what makes this nervous to me.

“(Russell Wilson) is going to do what he has to to win games, but with their offense, they should be dominating.”

That’s been Seattle’s issue in the second half of the season, as the offense has sputtered along with Wilson’s MVP hopes. The decline began when Seattle scored just 16 points in a loss to the Rams. The Seahawks won their other game against Los Angeles but only scored 20 points in that victory. Rams All-Pro corner Jalen Ramsey limited D.K. Metcalf to 8 catches for 87 yards across two games.

“The Rams defense is one of the best in the league, so I would suggest it’s going to be a close game,” the coach said. “It may not be a high-scoring game. It could be a low-scoring game. But if the game is close in the fourth quarter, you gotta give an edge to Seattle because of Russell Wilson. And these games generally go to the fourth quarter.”

Betting on the Seahawks to win a low-scoring playoff game earlier in the season would’ve seemed laughable, but the Seattle defense has been much improved of late. The scout and player both attribute that, in large part, to the addition of edge rusher Carlos Dunlap, who recorded 4.5 sacks in eight games after Seattle traded for him.

“They run true Cover 3, and every team knows that,” the player said. “But if you don’t have the pieces to apply pressure it doesn’t work. With the addition of Carlos Dunlap, that’s when you saw that team come together.”

“I don’t know if the Rams can be explosive enough to score against Seattle,” the scout added. “I think Seattle will be able to create some pressures and force Goff into turnovers. He just does not handle pressure well. I see a low scoring game either way, but I see Russell Wilson make plays late. If it’s (backup QB John) Wolford for the Rams, they’re just going to have a hard time moving the ball consistently.”

Coach’s pick: Seahawks

Player’s pick: Seahawks

Scout’s pick: Seahawks

Buccaneers at Washington

Tom Brady experienced pressure at the sixth-lowest rate of any starting QB, according to Sportradar, but Washington has a stout defensive front that includes Montez Sweat and 2020 No. 2 overall pick Chase Young.

“I think it’ll be closer than what’s projected because Washington can get home with four,” the scout said. “They’ve got four legitimate impact players along the front, and Tom Brady doesn’t move well. I think they’ll be able to hang in and keep it close.”

But Washington’s offense might battle an even more severe version of the same problem if it starts quarterback Alex Smith, who is battling a right calf strain that limits his mobility and has a much less imposing set of skill position players around him than Brady does. He’ll be facing a Tampa Bay defense that ranks fifth in DVOA, No. 1 against the run and No. 5 against the pass.

“Alex isn’t going to be able to go anywhere because he can’t run,” the coach said. “They’re really playing with 10. When Alex had his legs, things were different because he could extend plays and make things happen. He really isn’t capable of doing that. … I just don’t think Washington can outlast them offensively.”

Coach’s pick: Buccaneers

Player’s pick: Buccaneers

Scout’s pick: Buccaneers