old article: Aaron Rodgers’ hidden weakness
Scott Kacsmar
2013
http://insider.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/9711636/nfl-why-aaron-rodgers-not-truly-great
Trailing 34-30 with 3:47 remaining on Sunday, Aaron Rodgers had a chance to lead a game-winning touchdown drive to help the Green Bay Packers escape with a victory in Cincinnati. With the stage set for a classic finish after a wild game, this should have been a legacy-growing moment for the player many believe is the best quarterback in the NFL, right?
Not so fast. The Packers are just 5-24 (.172) in games when Rodgers had the ball in the fourth quarter, trailing by 1-8 points. Five comebacks in 29 tries? Tony Romo, considered by some to be a choker, led five comeback wins in the 2012 season alone. Among active starters, only Cam Newton (2-16) has a worse record than Rodgers.
He has numerous passing records, both a regular-season and Super Bowl MVP, but this is the one area on the résumé that continues to be a sore spot for Rodgers. Sunday was one of his worst finishes yet.
This time, while the drive was long in plays (13), it ended at the Cincinnati 20 after Rodgers’ pass was tipped on fourth-and-5. That was the third tipped ball of the drive, as the Packers’ offense ended the game with two interceptions, a fumble returned for the go-ahead score, and this turnover on downs.
These close-game failures have been the hush-hush hallmark of coach Mike McCarthy’s otherwise successful tenure as Packers head coach. While the blame should be distributed everywhere, why are we not looking at the quarterback more?
Rodgers arguably had one of the worst games of his career on Sunday, but like with past greats, that would have been forgiven with one game-winning drive at the end. One great drive and the Packers could be 2-1. Instead, they have started 1-2 for the second straight season.
It’s always the same story for Green Bay: win big or lose close. When you think of Rodgers at his best, you think of the six touchdowns in Houston last year or the demolition of Atlanta in the 2010 playoffs. You don’t think of late-game heroics, because they simply do not exist in great supply. Sunday was a perfect opportunity, but it was the latest in a long line of failures for the league’s best front-running quarterback and team.
Historically, clutch wins have been the ultimate “cream rises to the top” stat for quarterbacks. Since 1950, 10 quarterbacks have held at least a share of the record for most fourth-quarter comeback wins. The first nine are in the Hall of Fame, while the current record holder, Peyton Manning (38), will soon join them.
There is some historical data to show the crunch-time disconnect in Green Bay. The following table lists two different career records (playoffs included) for 24 notable quarterbacks. The first mark is for fourth quarter comeback opportunities (4QC), which are defined as the team having the ball in the fourth quarter with a one-score deficit. The second record is for all game-winning drive opportunities (GWD), which include games where it was tied in the fourth quarter or overtime, in addition to games with a one-score deficit. The rankings fall according to the game-winning drive performance. Pay attention to where Rodgers ranks among some of the all-time greats.
Among the top eight, you’ll see some of the names in the conversation for greatest QB of all time, including Brady, Montana, Peyton Manning, Marino, Elway and Staubach. Meanwhile, the bottom group is not nearly of the same caliber. That includes Rodgers’ predecessor, Brett Favre, who had many late-game meltdowns but enough opportunities to shine, as well.
Rodgers’ 5-24 record in comeback efforts includes an 0-18 mark against teams that finished the season .500 or better. That could grow to 0-20 depending on what the 49ers and Bengals do this season.
Green Bay’s dominance does come into play. The Packers’ historic 19-game winning streak without trailing in the fourth quarter (during the 2010 and 2011 seasons) limited the need for late-game heroics, and in fact, the 2010 Packers are one of just three Super Bowl winners to not have a single fourth-quarter comeback win. But even accounting for that great streak, Rodgers has had plenty of opportunities to rack up comebacks (29) and game-winning drives (35).
Instead, Rodgers is two standard deviations below the average overall winning percentage for this set of quarterbacks. His record in these situations is one of the worst in NFL history, which is shocking given his overall caliber of play and success. It is hard to fathom how a team capable of winning so many games in impressive fashion cannot finish in crunch time with a prolific, record-setting quarterback and a ball-hawking defense.
Rodgers is 9-26 (.257) when he has to score the winning points in the fourth quarter or overtime, but 49-5 (.907) in all other games, meaning the Packers are often on the winning end of blowouts. That .650 difference in winning percentage is the largest I have found in a sample of 67 quarterbacks.
That’s more proof that Rodgers and the Packers are the greatest front-runners the NFL has ever seen, but why does this keep happening each season?
There is a tendency for Rodgers to hold onto the ball too long as he tries to push it down the field. Sometimes, when you need just a field goal, it’s best to take what the defense gives you and get the ball out quickly. Avoiding negative plays is pivotal when field position is so important. Yet Rodgers has been sacked on 10.4 percent of his drop-backs in the fourth quarter and overtime in his 26 failed game-winning drives. That’s simply too high. It’s probably not a coincidence that Rodgers is the only quarterback in NFL history to lose five consecutive overtime games with the same team.
Of course, some of the 26 losses speak well for him. He has put Green Bay ahead seven times in the fourth quarter when trailing, only for the team to go on to lose the game. The defense is certainly deserving of blame for this.
Green Bay has allowed 20 game-winning drives since 2008, which is third-most in the league over that span. Last season, there was the Hail Mary to Seattle’s Golden Tate on that game’s final play. In Week 1 this year, Aaron Rodgers led the Packers to a 28-24 lead, only to watch Colin Kaepernick and the Niners score the game’s last 10 points for a San Francisco win.
While it’s been a team problem, all quarterbacks have close losses in which the defense failed them. The difference — in comparison to Rodgers — is that they always seem to have more wins, too.
Ultimately, these games are not just about the go-ahead drive, either. On Sunday, Rodgers threw a bad interception in the fourth quarter when Green Bay led 30-21 and had the ball at Cincinnati’s 27. That likely cost him a bigger lead. On the next drive, he took a sack that lost 6 yards, setting up a third-and-12 that would eventually lead to the fourth-down fumble-recovery TD that put Green Bay behind.
The Packers have a lot of issues in games that are late and close. How much of the problem is tied to Rodgers is a debate that will only intensify if this pattern persists. But based on NFL history, I know this: If a team is in the fourth quarter of a close game, and there’s so little hope the QB will find a way to win, then that team probably doesn’t have the best quarterback in the league. For Rodgers to earn the status as one of the true greats at the position, he needs to show more in these moments.
Sunday was another opportunity wasted.
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