2020 Prediction: Trump vs Biden

wv wrote:

About 19 days out, I think. Less than 3 weeks.

No copping out. Time to predict.

I say Biden by about four points. 51 percent to 47 percent.

Not a landslide, a win. Kinda like 2012 Obama vs Romney. That was 51 to 47 percent. Obama got 332 electoral votes and Romney got 206. Obama won Florida in that one. 50 percent to 49 percent. Thats 29 electoral votes. I dont think Biden gets Florida so i predict he wins about 300 electoral votes.

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You have Biden taking Minnesota., Wisconsin ,Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida ? I don’t see him doing that. He could lose all of them but I suspect he will take a couple of those states and could be enough in a nail biter. One think I do think is in play is Texas. He just might take that state. I predict Biden but it’s the same thinking when I always pick the Rams to lose. You win either way. If the Rams lose it’s “I told you so” whereas if they win I’m happy.

If you look at where the “whitelash” is strongest, you get three states…two of which will almost certainly go Trump: Ohio and Florida.

And that’s ballgame.

I really don’t care what the polls say as the media (not the Dems or Reps, but the media)
REFUSE to do exit polling after their exit polling showed widespread election fraud in the Democratic Primaries in 2016. The only way for them to avoid a court case into the election fraud was to full stop discontinue them and never mention them again.

Which, remarkably, they did. All of them. Even Fox…

Now… WHY would ALL the major news networks and outlets… ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, Fox, NYT, WaPo, LAT, Reuters, AP, etc… ALL discontinue exit polling at the same time?

I don’t think it’s conspiracy thinking to assert that for that many entities with outright conflicting interests speaks to something greater.

Trump is gonna win because the billionaire class are fine with pushing us closer to Central American levels of income and wealth disparities and feeling confident that the police will focus on protecting capital over defending the Constitution… and so far… right on schedule.

Yeah, I think it’s gonna get bad and be bad for awhile… but the evil billionaires will eventually die out (calling them crazy removes their agency and they’re devoting their fortunes on this with purpose, expeditiously so). As well, they are growing an ever more activist seed this time.

This isn’t the 60s where young idealists are gonna sell out for their kids and bigger houses. Millennials and Zoomers are being radicalized on an even deeper and more existential level and when it’s their turn… the rubber banding is just gonna be staggering to watch.

But yeah… I think the Super Bowl and the election are about the same level of fixed. There are too many indications of that.

WE can unfix them by electing Actual Progressives and leftists (not those fucking faux progressives who think symbolic gestures mean a fucking thing…) to local offices and build up a candidate base for state and then national offices.

And unlike prior to 2016, we KNOW now that we can lift a left or left-leaning candidate to heights no one can deny as happened with Bernie. Once that infrastructure is in place… be it with the People’s Party or DSA or whatever… we’ll see a change.

But yeah, as for the topic: Trump will win, either by Reps winning states like FL and OH or by fraud, but yeah. Those paperless voting machines gotta start giving the billionaires a return on their investment sometime now…

• This reply was modified 4 years, 2 months ago by Mackeyser.

I think Biden wins, but not by as much as he should, cuz Trump has corrupted the process beyond the surreal. It’s kinda like Aaron Donald getting four sacks in a game, while being held all game long. If the other team had played by the rules, he would have had twice that. But he still got four.

We’ve actually never had this kind of coordination of so many state-run vectors/choke-points, trying to steal an election before, from either party. Trump’s using his DoJ, his State Department, his Postal Service, bribing farmers with billions in tax dollars, extorting other countries to help him invent shit on Biden . . . as well as the usual grotesque voter suppression efforts we see right now from the GOP. And they plan to at least try to run their own electors against the majorities in certain states, if they lose them. Throw in Trump’s public calls for right-wing paramilitary units to disrupt the vote, and you get what could be an actual, literal, fascist coup.

Even with all the above, I still think Trump is toast. America is flat out exhausted by the Trump Show. They’ll vote against him in significant enough numbers to offset GOP dirty tricks.

Biden 35
Trump 27 (misses extra point)

Billy_T wrote:

For others, however, this discrepancy isn’t an indictment of Trump. It’s an indictment of the exit polls.

I haven’t studied their methodologies, histories, etc. etc. enough to really know one way or another. But I am deeply suspicious.

Clinton was a terrible candidate, and the Dems made a huge mistake clearing the field for her. But even with all of that, I think she actually won the election, and Trump and the GOP stole it, as did Dubya. Of course, a better Dem candidate should have been able to overcome all of those shenanigans, etc.

I think we had a discussion similar to this a while back and I was surprised to find that voter suppression was a real thing in Wisconsin. But this isn’t surprising, since republicans control a lot of the levers of power in Wisconsin or they did until the democrats won the governor back in 2018.

The other states, I wasn’t convinced because an important part of Trump’s victory was that he turned out people who just didn’t vote in past elections. Look at the numbers in places like Pennsylvania where the voter turnout was much higher than the past.

This voter turnout is real–this is not some grand some conspiracy. The evidence that Americans really like Trump is everywhere.

Look at the Trump rallies. Tucker Carlson–yes, Tucker fucking Carlson–has the number 1 cable TV news show. Americans love them some Fox News.

I also looked at the exit data for Florida that you linked and the exit data matched the election results perfectly (if my math is correct.) That was the first and only state that I looked at.

Do you have any states where the exit polls don’t match the election results?

Also: Biden had better ratings for his townhall than Trump. And Trump’s was simulcast on three different networks (NBC, MSNBC and CNBC) to Biden’s one (ABC).

Not sure exactly what to make of that, but I think it’s safe to say it’s probably not a great sign for Trump.

Folks are tired of the Trump show. America wants to move on, and go with a president who is willing to remain in the background. Trump has to be center-stage, every single day, 24/7, and that’s beyond exhausting. He’s given this country PTSD.

Cal wrote:

I agree, Billy, Trump is toast this year–People are tired of his act. But this election will still be close because there is so much support for Trump.

One of the interesting things from the 2106 exit polls was that 45% voters said the government needs to do more, while 50% say that the gov’t does too much. I’d guess the number of people who believe the gov’t should do more will be much this higher this year in the turmoil caused by the pandemic.

Americans are just plain dumb about the role that government could play in our lives.

Good points, as always.

Just speaking for myself, I want the government to do far, far less in certain areas, and far, far more in others. I want it to get out of the war business entirely, for instance; stop pumping up Wall Street, corporations, billionaires and millionaires; end its war on migrants, drugs, dissidents, etc. I’d love to see it slash the military budget, intel, zero-out ICE, radically demilitarize the police, reverse all privatization of the carceral system and decriminalize all non-violent, victimless crimes . . . As in, set those people free. Swap public service terms for jail sentences, where applicable, etc.

To try to make a long story short . . . I’d get the government out of the war and punishment business to the extent humanly possible . . . But I’d ramp up its involvement in all “caring and helping” fields, education (free, cradle to grave, at all public institutions), health care (M4A and free clinics nationwide), scientific research, environmental protections (GND) and so on. I also think it’s time for a serious look at UBI, though, IMO, it has to be more than the amount usually proposed. It needs to be enough to actually live on.

And, contrary to what many say, that we can’t afford this, I think we can’t afford not to. Climate Change and Mass Inequality alone are enough to say we must, and the following article makes it abundantly clear that we have the money to do all the above:

Billionaire wealth rises to more than $10 trillion for first time ever amid pandemic: analysis Rich get richer as millions of Americans fall into poverty and 100 million plunge into “extreme poverty” globally