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Laquon Treadwell and the Chipotle Paradox
Written by Jeff Risdon on February 22, 2016
Ole Miss wideout Laquon Treadwell is widely regarded as the top prospect at his position for the 2016 NFL Draft. Most every national pundit and draftnik rates Treadwell as WR1 in a class where WR2-10 are eminently debatable.
As an evaluator, I pride myself on forging my own opinion. I trust my own eyes and what I’ve learned in covering every draft since 2004. I’ve sat with scouts watching games and picked their brains as to what they were looking at, not just the “what” but the “why”. Former players have helped me greatly in scouting specific positions, too.
Yet I’m not immune to the groupthink, nor do I try to be. If many evaluators I trust and respect are all seeing the same things in a player, I feel like I should probably see it too. It might take a different viewing lens to find it, perhaps watching different games or studying the broader context of the performances.
So when I see everyone else trumpeting Treadwell, I’m inclined to find the spark in others’ eyes.
Except I don’t see it.
Sure, I note the obvious. He’s a very impressive physical specimen for the position at 6’2” and 212 rippled pounds. He blocks better than most tight ends. Hell, he blocks better than most right tackles. Strong hands and the ability to extend his long arms to make the difficult catch? Check…
Laquon Treadwell's dope grab from yesterday! DoubleTap for more posts today!! (Vine by TOUCHDOWN) https://t.co/3fRmKcdO5A
— Emilio (@emihadad) February 20, 2016
A top, five-star recruit from Crete, IL (extreme southern Chicago hinterlands), the hype has been there for a long time. Ever since he took his wads of cash to Oxford, Treadwell has been hailed as a future, surefire NFL No. 1 wideout.
But I just don’t see it.
To me, Treadwell is like Chipotle. You know, the absurdly popular burrito restaurant where the lines stretch out the door while the adjacent Potbelly’s and Pei Wei’s have instant service? Where folks in my immediate family eat at least five meals a week, and hipsters boldly proliferate like bats to the cave at sunrise? Yeah, that Chipotle.
Except I don’t really like Chipotle.
Don’t get me wrong, Chipotle doesn’t suck. I’ll eat there without complaint. It beats the hell out of Taco Bell or those funky substances Jack In The Box calls tacos. I can’t even recall the last time I got food poisoning from efreebirds-walnut-creek-motorcycleating Chipotle, and I’ve been at least twice since Halloween.
However, if I’m going out for a burrito, I’m not defaulting to Chipotle like the vast majority of Americans under 50. I strongly preferred Freebirds when I lived in Houston and I may or may not have scheduled an inordinately long layover at Hobby Airport so I could sneak out and score some last year. I may or may not be salivating and getting the withdrawal shakes writing this.
Bullritos had better salsa choices and tastier chips, not to mention free Wifi, so they were next on the pecking order. Juan Big Burrito in League City drew me in more than a few times too.
Now I live in West Michigan, where Qdoba is the prime competitor. I’m not really a big fan of theirs either, mainly because I despise liquid cheese products and their queso is apparently the big draw. We have a local Baja which is great, independent from the chain of the same name. Their parking lot is more of a deathtrap than the local Wal-Mart (tangential sidebar–why is every Wal-Mart parking lot designed by a sadistic, blind and clueless handicapped monkey?) so I don’t get there very often. I like the Fat Burrito here in Holland but my God is that place aptly named!
These are all burrito places I prefer to Chipotle. When I tell most people that, they look at me like I just admitted to keeping a girl in a pit. I get those same virtual looks when I reveal my lack of love for Treadwell as a prospect.
I like Corey Coleman’s upside better, even if he doesn’t actually run routes, never blocks and makes Eric Ebron seem like Steve Largent when catching the ball. The concept of what Coleman could be greatly exceeds Treadwell’s ceiling, even if the odds of occurrence are about as high as Adam Sandler ever producing a movie not aimed at 14-year-old boys or the men who long to be one again. He’s the atomic fire sauce that either explodes into greatness in your mouth or leaves you with second-degree burns.
I prefer Sterling Shepard’s precision, competitiveness with the ball in the air and ability to create after the catch. His agility and short-area burst are a jaguar to Treadwell’s capybara, even though the latter is darn near impossible to stop with a full head of steam.
The Michael Thomas from Ohio State, the one who showed enough in college to merit a Combine invite and not everyone’s favorite sleeper/snub from Southern Miss, is about the same size as Treadwell but is better at making contested catches and most certainly runs faster, both off the line and in open spaces. He’s better at making catches below his waist and finding the end zone, too…
Treadwell last 2 years:
196 targets, 12 drops, 131 catches, 16 TDMichael Thomas last 2 years:
157 targets, 5 drops, 110 catches, 18 TD— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 12, 2016
Braxton Miller showed off moves during Senior Bowl week that would snap Treadwell’s leg once again if he tried them. For a 215-pound player to move with agility like that, you have to be intrigued…even if he isn’t a natural catcher and has only played the position for a year. As with Coleman, the upside dwarfs my perceived ceiling with Treadwell.
To me, Treadwell is Chipotle. He’s a largely reliable, satisfactory meal that many people are a little too overzealous in touting. But I just don’t get the sense that he’s something special. Everything I like about Treadwell, I can find another guy who offers the same entrée but with the chance that the overall menu is more diverse and com1118_bisp_Treadwell Austinplete.
I believe too many people are pre-programmed to love Treadwell. From the recruiting hype to the glorious de-cleating blocks to the outstanding one-handed catches and the way he treats pressing corners like Hulk Hogan does a tank top, it’s easy to fall in love with all that is good with Laquon Treadwell.
But as so many sycophants stand in line shoegazing at Chipotle, I think there are better choices out there that too many are too unwilling to try. This is where the herd mentality, the dreaded groupthink, becomes a real problem. Everyone has eaten at Chipotle so many times that it’s just the default, as Treadwell has become the default top wideout in this class.
It doesn’t have to be that way. Be bold. Try a local taqueria or a different national burrito joint. If you’re stuck sharing an Uber to Chipotle with a sweater-wearing colleague sporting $600 glasses, at least try and order something different. If you’re a carnitas guy, go for the chicken and this time add the veggies. If you normally get Sofritas, well, I can’t help you…
Think about why you really like Laquon Treadwell. Is it just because you feel obligated? Because so many in the upper realms of draft media–the guys who probably still haven’t seen Roger Lewis or Quinshad Davis play a single snap yet–have touted him as the best since last August?
If you arrive at the conclusion that Treadwell is indeed your perfect burrito, that’s great. Chipotle grew into ubiquity for good reason. Just don’t expect to see me standing behind you in that line.
AgamemnonWatch out for Josh Doctson out of TCU, who will make a huge and immediate impact on whichever team ends up picking him in the 2016 NFL Draft.
The Chargers have put off grooming Malcolm Floyd’s replacement/getting a competent threat opposite of Keenan Allen 2 years in a row now. Based on his last season, Stevie Johnson appears to be best in the 3rd option role. Laquon Treadwell is the best receiver in the class and is a very good player. I’m not sure he’s “invest in him 3rd in the draft” good. What I am sure is that there isn’t this huge gap between Treadwell and the other receivers in the draft that most media has led us to believe. So this week i’ll write about the 3 receivers that are on his heels.
Josh Doctson is a big receiver at 6’3, but is a slender 195 pounds. He’s an interesting watch. Before the pass, he plays like a receiver you’d label as “small”, both in a positive and negative way. The same can be said after the catch. So let’s start there with Docton’s game.
Small ballThe good news with Doctson is that he wins at the line of scrimmage with his feet like a typical slot receiver would. On every level they teach you the same releases as far as footwork is concerned. 3 step releases: 1) Where you’re going 2) Where you’re not going 3) Where you’re going. In Doctson’s case, it’s as if he lulls you to sleep and then on his second step he explodes out of his cut to create separation.
Understanding how to alter your speed and tempo as a route runner is far more important than being able to run a 4.3 40 yard dash. The eyeball test tells you that Doctson is impressive at the line of scrimmage especially considering his size. Doctson wins at the beginning and top of his routes with quick, efficient footwork and head fakes. Combining this with tempo allows him to create separation. I’d encourage you to follow Matt Harmon on twitter. He does in-depth work on receivers, and does an incredible job of putting numbers into perspective. The table below is from his NFL Draft receiver primer.
What we’ll concentrate on here is the final column that compares Doctson’s success rate against press coverage. 83% is an outstanding number and helps paint the consistent picture of Doctson at the line of scrimmage on just how successful he is.
Ironically where both receivers have trouble at the line of scrimmage is not being physical enough or using their hands to disengage from contact against the defender. I’ve seen Doctson get hung up just enough to where it could translate as a concern. This is the best example and it comes on a touchdown because of course.
Doctson can’t go that many steps with a defender engaged on him and expect to win at the next level. In the vine as soon as the DB gets his hands on him he needs to use his left hand and swipe, slap or do something to get himself clean. An experienced corner at the next level will more than likely cut him off from getting to this ball because he’ll still be engaged.
Maximizing yards after the catch
Inconsistent. That’s the best way to describe Doctson. For whatever reason he’s labeled as a possession receiver by some but he is much faster than given credit for and I believe he’ll run sub 4.5 to prove that. There are plays where he’ll stiff arm a defender, run through a tackle and break away for a long gain.
Doctson has pulled that stunt off more than a handful of times the past 2 years. The frustrating part is where Doctson will give himself up after the catch. Whether it’s running out of bounds or having a 1-on-1 opportunity with a smaller DB and getting tackled. Won’t shake him, won’t try to run through him, nothing comes of it. I’m not looking for him to make 3 guys miss every time he has a chance to do so. I am looking for him to maximize every opportunity he gets and not leave yards on the field.
Adjusting and playing above the rim
As far-fetched as that seems, Doctson has tremendous ability to track the ball in the air, high point the pass, control himself mid-air, and come down with some spectacular catches. Is Doctson plays like a 5’9 receiver before and after the catch then he plays like a 7’1 receiver when the ball is in the air.
That’s a handful of acrobatic catches that look simple.Those catches away from his body are not easy by any stretch of the imagination and he makes them look routine. That’s a split second reaction you need to be able to react to a pass off target, locate it, then hang on through contact. Which is another area Doctson excels in.
Context in drops and contested catchesHe had 5 drops in the 5 games I charted. Without any context that sounds like a lot. He dropped 2 passes against Texas Tech. He was also targeted 25 times that game. In those games he was targeted 73 times and a lot of those games he had extra attention. I’m in the camp where drops can be overstated and in Doctson’s situation I’m not too worried about it at all.
Another trait we tend to over/under state is contested catches. It really depends on the type of receiver you are. In Doctson’s case, considering he’s going to be running the full route tree, it’s very important. Doctson being targeted so many times gave us a good sample size on his all around game, including contested catches. In the 5 game sample size he caught 19/24 contested catches opportunities. I had to recheck that because there’s no way a receiver is going to haul in just under 80% of their passes when a defender is draped over them or a safety is coming to knock their head off. Docston did exactly that.
His ability to make plays through contact and hold on after big hits is tops in the class.
Worth the waitDoctson will be a 24 year old rookie which likely means he is what he is at this point. Many of the weaknesses you read are “upright route runner”, “won’t break many tackles”, “didn’t run the full route tree”, and “lean frame and lacks strength.” The 1st 1 doesn’t really mean much considering he wins with his feet. As previously stated, where Doctson gets in trouble is not using his hands. He could have great pad level and it wouldn’t matter. No argument on the fact that Doctson doesn’t break tackles and lacks strength. I’ve seen the route tree thing a few times and that couldn’t be further from the truth. In each of the 5 games Doctson ran at least 5 or more routes. That’s far from an issue and he ti say he’s not a proficient route runner would be assuming this was the case because he played in a spread offense. Doctson “won” 53 of his 67 routes when you take away the screens. That’s good for 79% of his routes. You couldn’t convince me he’s a bad route runner.
The reason Doctson is worth the wait is because he’s 90% of Treadwell. He’s doesn’t have the same “juice” Treadwell does after the catch but they both leave a lot to be desired in this category to be honest. As a pure receiver, there’s not much, if anything, Treadwell does better than Doctson. He’s considerably stronger, but doesn’t separate as well, not as agile, nor is he better with the ball in the air. They’re even in a lot of areas and most of this comes down to Doctson’s age, which is fair.
If I’m drafting this year I’d wait on a receiver like Doctson who will be there at the end of the 1st or in the early 2nd. Doctson isn’t what you would call a blue chip prospect but he is a player without many flaws in his game. I have a hard time believing he won’t be successful at the next level due to his ability to excel in contested catching situations, adjust to poorly thrown passes, and play above the rim. Doctson can be 1 of the 10 best players in the draft when it’s all said and done. What Docston is really good at is what you need to be really good at in the NFL. He’s a nuanced enough route runner that he’ll continue to get open and if he figures out how to use his hands, look out.
AgamemnonReception Perception: Top-four NFL Draft wide receiver primer
By: Matt Harmon
January 18th, 2016
http://www.thebackyardbanter.com/reception-perception-top-four-college-receiver-primer.htmlAs you often hear ambitious men and women say, this is just the beginning. Under the benefits of working for the shield I’ve spent all season charting and collecting Reception Perception data on the 2016 NFL Draft’s crop of wide receivers. The work is far from over, but my plan is to be ready for a release of most of this data some time after the conclusion of the Super Bowl. I’m excited to gear up for another offseason of creating Reception Perception content, and furthering the reach of the methodology.
However, because interest in the draft is starting to peak, and you know I have to get these takes off, I put together this small look at four of the draft’s receivers. Laqoun Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Josh Doctson and Sterling Shepard are incredible players, and some of the best this year has to offer. They’ll all compete to fit into my personal top-five rankings, and will do so for many others. These are the only four I’ve completed a full college Reception Perception sample on, which I elected to make six instead of the normal NFL requirement of eight due to the shorter status of their season. I’m still not 100 percent sure how Reception Perception results will differ when evaluating a large field of college prospects as opposed to NFL players, but we’ll likely have a good answer for that at the end of this endeavor.Expect far more in-depth Reception Perception content on these four and many other wideout draft prospects in the coming months. Keep in mind, even as we sit here today, my thoughts are far from complete on any player. For now, lets just take a look at these four’s Success Rate Versus Coverage (SRVC) scores.
Before we go any further, if you found this page and you are unfamiliar with Reception Perception, thank you for checking the series out. If you need a primer or even a refresher for what the methodology is or attempts to uncover, please refer to this page holding all of last year’s Reception Perception content. You’ll see just how much you have to look forward to beyond the cursory glance here.
Laqoun Treadwell is the No. 1 wide receiver in this year’s draft class, and to me, there is no real debate to have on the subject. We know that Treadwell is a maven in the contested catch game, often earning him the Alshon Jeffery comparison. Despite Jeffery’s status as one of the best receivers in the league today, that comparison doesn’t do Treadwell justice. One reality that Reception Perception helps illuminate is his ability to create separation, an area that seems to go undersold.Treadwell’s attempts against man coverage (130) was by far the most among this group. His 74.6 percent SRVC against man is well in line with several NFL star players like Dez Bryant and Allen Robinson. Again, there is certainly a need for weighting and adjusting when comparing college to NFL results, but that’s still encouraging. Another way these prospect results perhaps can’t go 1-1 is the difference in conference defensive strength. Treadwell keeping pace with, or besting, his three peers here that play in the notoriously leaky Big-12 conference is great to see. Treadwell has no major holes in his game.
Josh Doctson seems to be somewhat of a polarizing prospect. Some will get hung up over his age, but it does not worry me. There was a similar discussion around Kevin White last season, who still went in the top-10. Unlike White, Doctson already looks like a polished NFL receiver.
Watch the highlight reels and you’ll see he’s a tremendous player in the contested catch game. Not many collegiate receivers track the ball and contort in perfect fashion to play the pass in the air like Doctson. However, don’t get fooled into thinking that is all he is. Doctson creates separation off press coverage. His 83.3 percent SRVC against press shows the refinement of his release moves. He’s also an intelligent players with an understanding of where to sit down in zones, and his SRVC facing it is currently the best charted in this class. I was on RotoViz Radio a few months back, and in a post-show conversation, one of the illustrious hosts Matt Freedman made a comparison between Doctson and DeAndre Hopkins. I’m trying to avoid player comps this year, but that one stuck with me. Much like Hopkins, Doctson doesn’t have one overwhelming physical trait, but just does everything well. Don’t rule out that Doctson settles on that trajectory.
Sterling Shepard, oh let me count the ways he impresses. Back in November when charting these players, I had no idea who he was before rolling the tape and pulling out the Reception Perception sheets. He made me take notice immediately, and earned the title of “my favorite” wide receiver in this class. Shepard is bar-none the best route runner coming out of college this year, already showing great ability to execute even the most in-depth and nuanced aspects of route assignments like an NFL veteran.
Revisionist history holds Odell Beckham in, deserved, elite company because of his eye-popping plays and athletic movements. However, what made him such an easy sell right off the bat to NFL scouting departments was his refinement as a collegiate. Carolina Panthers GM Dave Gettleman spoke on him after the draft and called him easily the best route runner among his peer’s in the 2014 class. I’ll never be so flippant to put a prospect in the special air that Beckham holds, but Shepard has that same easy to bite on refinement.
Shepard’s SRVC against man is a whopping 7.8 percentage points better than the next highest in this group. An 82.8 percent score normalizing at that high of a rate over a full sample is a feat to take notice of. He tops it only by a 91.1 percent SRVC score against press, also 7.8 percentage points higher than the next closest mark. There are holes to pick in Shepard’s game, and we’ll touch on those in the future, but his elite strengths in the route-running department make him tough to keep away from the second spot after Treadwell.
Corey Coleman figures as another prospect that there will be a ton of debate over in the coming months. The Baylor offense adds some wrinkles that evaluators will get hung up on. In terms of Reception Perception, he’s an odd evaluation, because you cannot possibly chart all of Baylor’s pass plays as routes run by a receiver. Again, it’s something we’ll touch on in a full profile of Coleman at a later date, but Baylor’s coaches instruct their receivers to just trot down the field when the pass target isn’t headed to their side of the field. That is why his attempts against coverage are so much lower than his three peers here, despite going under the microscope for the same six-game sample.
At one point, Coleman’s scores looked better than they finished at here. Coleman did not sustain the same level of elite play throughout the season, and his SRVC against man diminished the most as a result. He has ridiculous high-end athletic potential to develop as a professional route-runner, but Coleman is from that point yet. However, there’s plenty to get excited about with him. One area I expect Coleman to get underrated in is his intelligence as a receiver. In that Baylor offense the receiver has a ton of responsibility to read and diagnose coverages, especially zones. Coleman’s ability to do so is reflected in a strong 80 percent SRVC there. I tend to think the positives outweigh the negatives with Coleman, but we are far from finished with this process.
That’s all for now, just some short-form to to wet our lips here at the onset of draft season. Please continue to follow the series for a further look at these four prospects, more incoming rookies and then eventually NFL players. Reception Perception is back in full-swing. Buckle up.
AgamemnonBrowns officially have terminated contract of WR Dwayne Bowe.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 16, 2016
AgamemnonNFL
Find this article at:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000644984/article/cleveland-browns-release-receiver-dwayne-bowe
Cleveland Browns release receiver Dwayne BoweBy Marc Sessler
Around the NFL Writer
Published: March 16, 2016 at 03:15 p.m.
Updated: March 16, 2016 at 03:32 p.m.The Dwayne Bowe experiment is finally over in Cleveland.
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Three teams that lost in free agencyThe unproductive veteran wideout was released by the team Wednesday.
Inked last offseason under the prior regime to a two-year deal with $9 million guaranteed, Bowe caught just five passes all season as the most disappointing free-agent addition league-wide of 2015.
The move comes hours after the Browns released linebacker Karlos Dansby, but for different reasons: While Dansby was an aging player who cost too much, he was also a week-to-week contributor in Cleveland. Bowe was a phantom from the very first minute.
It’s fair to wonder if the former Chiefs pass-catcher has played his last snap in the NFL. If so, he’s got plenty of money to take with him.
He was a good player at one time. Had a lot of drops, though.
Agamemnon
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