2 key players–keys to the season

Britt and Quick … and Bailey after Game 4

I really think they are the key to the year.

I am unconvinced that this D will be top 8 or better. The DBs are very young, the run defense is not established, and you know Williams will both win and lose gambles out there. I will believe we are a truly elite defense when we can stop the run and get off the field on 3rd down.

I think our D will knock on the door of the Top 10, but will average about 20 points conceded. And I think it will struggle to limit opponents’ time of possession. (Love to be wrong.)

Which leaves the offense. The standard narrative is that we will run and run and run. There’s truth to this, but defenses routinely stack the box against us and I have yet to see evidence that we can consistently move the chains against a stacked defense.

In my read of the team, offensive success has to come through the passing game. Much of what we accomplished this summer came through conversions of 3rd and long situations. Lee Trevino said, “2 things don’t last: dogs who chase cars and pros putting for pars.” Well, relying on long 3rd down conversions doesn’t last either unless you have a historically great passing game. And not always then.

I’ve said it a million times and I think the PS proved it: to be productive, our O has to drive opposing LBs and DBs back off the LOS. That means we have to throw the ball effectively to WRs on the perimeter and in the intermediate middle of the field. And we have to do it often enough on 1st down to force opposing secondaries to adjust.

Well, can we do that? We have a good back up but a back up nonetheless with a limited arm. We have a strong OL, but not necessarily the best pass blocking unit, especially with Long at LOT. What chances do we have to be effective passing?

It comes down to our WRs. Through last year we had no one who could get open promptly except for Bailey in a few late games. That increases the pressure on the QB, the pass blocking, and the running game.

This year we have Britt, a resurgent Quick, and Bailey after 4 games. IF … if … they can make themselves available quickly, either through Bailey getting open or Britt or Quick using size, then they can make QB, OL, the RBs, and Tavon look really good.

If they can’t, I see an offensive malaise that our D won’t be good enough to offset.

And consider the effect on the defense. Our strength is in our pass rush. Our DBs are young and green. Our D will look far better playing with leads and time of possession than it will if the offense sputters and sits on the bench, allowing opposing offenses to run the ball and throw darts too quickly to be affected by the pass rush.

To me, Britt and Quick are the key to a good season. If they are the real deal, the whole team will soar. If not, I think it will flounder.

That’s my key for the season.