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  • July 10, 2020 at 10:56 am #117832

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Study of 17 Million Identifies Crucial Risk Factors for Coronavirus Deaths

    link https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/health/coronavirus-risk-factors.html

    An analysis of more than 17 million people in England — the largest study of its kind, according to its authors — has pinpointed a bevy of factors that can raise a person’s chances of dying from COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

    The paper, published Wednesday in Nature, echoes reports from other countries that identify older people, men, racial and ethnic minorities, and those with underlying health conditions among the more vulnerable populations.

    “This highlights a lot of what we already know about COVID-19,” said Uchechi Mitchell, a public health expert at the University of Illinois at Chicago who was not involved in the study. “But a lot of science is about repetition. The size of the study alone is a strength, and there is a need to continue documenting disparities.”

    The researchers mined a trove of de-identified data that included health records from about 40% of England’s population, collected by the United Kingdom’s National Health Service. Of 17,278,392 adults tracked over three months, 10,926 reportedly died of COVID-19 or COVID-19-related complications.

    “A lot of previous work has focused on patients that present at hospital,” said Dr. Ben Goldacre of the University of Oxford, one of the authors on the study. “That’s useful and important, but we wanted to get a clear sense of the risks as an everyday person. Our starting pool is literally everybody.”

    Goldacre’s team found that patients older than 80 were at least 20 times more likely to die from COVID-19 than those in their 50s and hundreds of times more likely to die than those below the age of 40. The scale of this relationship was “jaw-dropping,” Goldacre said.

    Additionally, men stricken with the virus had a higher likelihood of dying than women of the same age. Medical conditions such as obesity, diabetes, severe asthma and compromised immunity were also linked to poor outcomes, in keeping with guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the United States. And the researchers noted that a person’s chances of dying also tended to track with socioeconomic factors like poverty.

    The data roughly mirror what has been observed around the world and are not necessarily surprising, said Avonne Connor, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University who was not involved in the study. But seeing these patterns emerge in a staggeringly large data set “is astounding” and “adds another layer to depicting who is at risk” during this pandemic, Connor said.

    Particularly compelling were the study’s findings on race and ethnicity, said Sharrelle Barber, an epidemiologist at Drexel University who was not involved in the study. Roughly 11% of the patients tracked by the analysis identified as nonwhite. The researchers found that these individuals — particularly Black and South Asian people — were at higher risk of dying from COVID-19 than white patients.

    That trend persisted even after Goldacre and his colleagues made statistical adjustments to account for factors like age, sex and medical conditions, suggesting that other factors are playing a major role.

    An increasing number of reports have pointed to the pervasive social and structural inequities that are disproportionately burdening racial and ethnic minority groups around the world with the coronavirus’s worst effects.

    Some experts pointed out flaws in the researchers’ methodology that made it difficult to quantify the exact risks faced by members of the vulnerable groups identified in the study. For instance, certain medical conditions that can exacerbate COVID-19, like chronic heart disease, are more prevalent among Black people than white people.

    The researchers removed such variables to focus solely on the effects of race and ethnicity. But because Black individuals are also more likely to experience stress and be denied access to medical care in many parts of the world, the disparity in rates of heart disease may itself be influenced by racism, said Usama Bilal, an epidemiologist at Drexel University who was not involved in the new analysis. Ignoring the contribution of heart disease, then, could end up inadvertently discounting part of the relationship between race and ethnicity and COVID-19-related deaths.

    The study was also not set up to conclusively show cause-and-effect relationships between risk factors and COVID-19 deaths.

    Regardless of the methodological drawbacks of this study, experts agree that “the causes of disparities, whether in COVID-19 or other aspects of health, are intricately linked to structural racism,” Mitchell said.

    In the United States, Latino and African American residents are three times as likely to become infected by the coronavirus as white residents, and nearly twice as likely to die.

    Many of these individuals work as front-line employees or are tasked with essential in-person jobs that prevent them from sheltering in place at home. Some live in multigenerational households that can compromise effective physical distancing. Others must cope with language barriers and implicit bias when they seek medical care.

    Any study publishing data on an ongoing and fast-shifting pandemic will inevitably be imperfect, said Julia Raifman, an epidemiologist at Boston University who was not involved in the study.

    But the new paper helps address “a real paucity of data on race,” Raifman added. “These disparities are not just happening in the United States.”

    With regard to the racial inequities in this pandemic, Barber said, “I think what we’re seeing is real, and it’s not a surprise. We can learn from this study and improve on it. It gives us clues into what might be happening.”

    July 10, 2020 at 7:26 am #117802

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining?

    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/why-covid-death-rate-down/613945/

    For the past few weeks, I have been obsessed with a mystery emerging in the national COVID-19 data.

    Cases have soared to terrifying levels since June. Yesterday, the U.S. had 62,000 confirmed cases, an all-time high—and about five times more than the entire continent of Europe. Several U.S. states, including Arizona and Florida, currently have more confirmed cases per capita than any other country in the world.

    But average daily deaths are down 75 percent from their April peak. Despite higher death counts on Tuesday and Wednesday, the weekly average has largely plateaued in the past two weeks.

    …

    What follows are five possible explanations for the case-death gap. Take them as complementary, rather than competing, theories.

    1. Deaths lag cases—and that might explain almost everything.

    You can’t have a serious discussion about case and death numbers without noting that people die of diseases after they get sick. It follows that there should be a lag between a surge in cases and a surge in deaths. More subtly, there can also be a lag between the date a person dies and the date the death certificate is issued, and another lag before that death is reported to the state and the federal government. As this chart from the COVID Tracking Project shows, the official reporting of a COVID-19 death can lag COVID-19 exposure by up to a month. This suggests that the surge in deaths is coming.

    In Arizona, Florida, and Texas, the death surge is already happening. Since June 7, the seven-day average of deaths in those hot-spot states has increased 69 percent, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

    The death lag is probably the most important thing to understand in evaluating the case-death gap. But it doesn’t explain everything. Even where deaths are rising, corresponding cases are rising notably faster.

    2. Expanded testing is finding more cases, milder cases, and earlier cases.

    … That’s just wrong. Since the beginning of June, the share of COVID-19 tests that have come back positive has increased from 4.5 percent to 8 percent. Hospitalizations are skyrocketing across the South and West. Those are clear signs of an underlying outbreak.

    Something subtler is happening. The huge increase in testing is an unalloyed good, but it might be tricking us with some confusing weeks of data.

    In March and April, tests were scarce, and medical providers had to ration tests for the sickest patients. Now that testing has expanded into communities across the U.S., the results might be picking up milder, or even asymptomatic, cases of COVID-19.

    The whole point of testing is to find cases, trace the patients’ close contacts, and isolate the sick. But our superior testing capacity makes it difficult to do apples-to-apples comparisons with the initial surge; it’s like trying to compare the height of two mountains when one of the peaks is obscured by clouds. The epidemiologist Ellie Murray has also cautioned that identifying new fatal cases of COVID-19 earlier in the victims’ disease process could mean a longer lag between detection and death. This phenomenon, known as “lead time bias,” might be telling us that a big death surge is coming.

    And maybe it is. Maybe this is all as simple as nationwide deaths are about to soar, again.

    But there are still three reasons to think that any forthcoming death surge could be materially different from the one that brutalized the Northeast in March and April: younger patients, better hospital outcomes, and summer effects.

    3. The typical COVID-19 patient is getting younger.

    The most important COVID-19 story right now may be the age shift.

    In Florida, the median age of new COVID-19 cases fell from 65 in March to 35 in June. In its latest daily report, the Florida Department of Health says the median age is still in the high 30s.* In Arizona, Texas, and California, young adults getting sick have been driving the surge.

    If the latest surge is concentrated among younger Americans, that would partly explain the declining death count. Young people are much less likely to die from this disease, even if they face other health risks. International data from South Korea, Spain, China, and Italy suggest that the COVID-19 case-fatality rate for people older than 70 is more than 100 times greater than for those younger than 40.

    The youth shift seems very real, but what’s behind it is harder to say. Maybe older Americans are being more cautious about avoiding crowded indoor spaces. Maybe news reports of young people packing themselves into bars explain the youth spike, since indoor bars are exquisitely designed to spread the virus. Or maybe state and local governments that rushed to reopen the economy pushed young people into work environments that got them sick. “The people in the service economy and the retail industry, they tend to be young, and they can’t work remotely,” says Natalie Dean, an assistant professor at the University of Florida. Texas Governor Greg Abbott blamed reckless young people for driving the spike, but the true locus of recklessness might be the governor’s mansion.

    No matter the cause, interpreting the “youth surge” as good news would be a mistake. Young people infected with COVID-19 still face extreme dangers—and present real danger to their close contacts and their community. “We see people in their 20s and 30s in our ICUs gasping for air because they have COVID-19,” James McDeavitt, the dean of clinical affairs at Baylor College of Medicine, told The Wall Street Journal. Young people who feel fine can still contract long-term organ damage, particularly to their lungs. They can pass the disease to more vulnerable people, who end up in the hospital; a youth surge could easily translate into a broader uptick some weeks from now. And the sheer breadth of the youth surge could force businesses to shut down, throwing millions more people into limbo or outright unemployment.

    4. Hospitalized patients are dying less frequently, even without a home-run treatment.

    So far, we’ve focused on the gap between cases and deaths. But there’s another gap that deserves our attention. Hospitalizations and deaths moved up and down in tandem before June. After June, they’ve diverged. National hospitalizations are rising, but deaths aren’t.

    The hospitalization and death data that we have aren’t good enough or timely enough to say anything definitive. But the chart suggests some good news (finally): Patients at hospitals are dying less.

    Indeed, other countries have seen the same. One study from a hospital in Milan found that from March to May, the mortality rate of its COVID-19 patients declined from 24 percent to 2 percent—”without significant changes in patients’ age.” British hospitals found that their hospital mortality rate has declined every month since April.

    So what’s going on? Maybe doctors are just getting smarter about the disease.

    In early 2020, the novelty of the coronavirus meant that doctors had no idea what to expect. Health-care professionals were initially shocked that what they assumed to be a respiratory disease was causing blood clots, microvascular thrombosis, and organ damage. But millions of cases and hundreds of white papers later, we know more. That’s how, for example, doctors know to prescribe the steroid dexamethasone to rein in out-of-control immune responses that destroy patients’ organs.

    Finally, it’s notable that mortality declined in Italian and British hospitals when they weren’t overrun with patients. This is another reason why flattening the curve isn’t just a buzzy slogan, but a matter of life and death. As hospitals across Texas and Arizona start to fill up, we’ll see whether hospital mortality increases again.

    5. Summer might be helping—but probably only a little bit.

    ….as more people wear masks and move their activities outside in the summer, they might come into contact with smaller infecting doses of COVID-19. Some epidemiologists have claimed that there is a relationship between viral load and severity. With more masks and more outdoor interactions, it’s possible that the recent surge is partly buoyed by an increase in these low-dosage cases.

    July 9, 2020 at 2:05 pm #117794

    Topic: George Floyd Transcript….

    in forum The Public House
    Avatar photojoemad
    Participant

    URL = NYTIMES.com

    transcript was exported on Jun 15 2020 – view
    Speaker 1:
    ( silence)

    Speaker 1:
    Before they drive off, he’s parked righthere, its a fake bill from

    Kueng:
    The driver in there ?

    Lane: The blue Benz?

    Speaker 1:
    Which one?

    Speaker 3 :
    That blue one over there .

    Kueng
    Which one?

    Lane:
    27 -CR -20-12951
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    yup-yup Justhead back in. They’re moving around alot. Letmesee yourhands. George Floyd:
    Hey,man.I’m sorry! Lane:
    Stayinthe car,letmeseeyourotherhand. George Floyd:
    I’m sorry,I’m sorry! Lane:
    Letmeseeyourother hand! George Floyd:
    Please, Mr.Officer. Lane:
    Both hands. George Floyd:
    I didn’t do nothing. Lane:
    Put your fuckinghandsup rightnow ! Letme see your other hand. Shawanda Hill:
    lethim seeyourotherhand George Floyd :
    All right.WhatIdothough?WhatwedoMrOfficer? Lane:
    Putyourhand up there.Putyour fuckinghandupthere! Jesus Christ,keep your fucking handson the wheel
    George Floyd:
    got Lane:
    Axon
    crosstalk 00:02:00).
    EXHIBIT
    Defense 2
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    the Gentlemen , sorry.

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    Keep your fucking hands on thewheel. George Floyd:
    Yes, sir. I’m sorry , officer crosstalk 00:02:03) Lane:
    Who else is in the ? George Floyd:
    Thismy friend. Lane:
    Put your foot back in George Floyd:
    I’m sorry, so sorry.Goddangman.Man, got,i shotthesamewayMrOfficer,before. Lane:
    Okay. Wellwhen I say “Letmesee yourhands,” youput yourfucking handsup. George Floyd :
    Iam sosorry,Mrofficer.Dangman. Lane:
    You got him ? Put your hands on top ofyour head. George Floyd :
    Lasttime gotshotlikethatMrOfficer itwasthesamething Lane:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Handsontopofyourhead.Handson topofyearhead.Stepoutofthevehicle,andstepawayfromme, allright?
    George Floyd:
    Yes, sir. Lane:
    Step out and face away. Step outand face away . George Floyd:
    Okay,Mr.Officer,pleasedon’tshootme. Please,man. Lane:
    I’m not going to shoot you. Step out and away George Floyd:
    I’lllookatyou eye-to-eyeman.Pleasedon’tshootme,man. Lane:
    I’m notshootingyou,man. George Floyd
    I justlostmymom ,man. Lane
    320 were taking one out. Step out and face away . George Floyd:
    Man, I’m so sorry. Lane
    Step out and face away .
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    George Floyd:
    Pleasedon’tshootme,Mr.Officer.Please, don’tshootmeman.Please. Can younotshootme,man? Lane:
    Step out and faceaway. I’m not shooting. Step out and face away. George Floyd:
    Okay, okay, okay. Please. Please, man. Please. Please. I didn’tknow man. Lane:
    Get outofthe car. George Floyd:
    I didn’tknow,ididn’tknowMr.Officer. ShawandaRenee Hill
    Stop resisting Floyd! Lane:
    Put your fucking hands behind yourback. Putyour handsbehind your back rightnow ! Kueng:
    Stopmoving. Stop! Put your handsbehind your back then ! Lane
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Get his other arm George Floyd:
    I’m notgoingtodonothing. Kueng:
    Hey you come back ! Stay in the car! George Floyd
    00:03:24.
    I’m sorryMr.Officer, Shawanda Renee Hill
    What did you say sir? George Floyd:
    On man Kueng
    Stop resisting then . George Floyd:
    I’m not Kueng:
    Yes, you are. George Floyd
    getonmykneeswhatever.
    Ididn’t donothingwrongman.[inaudible00:03:38]. Kueng
    Stand up! George Floyd
    Please, please,man. Lane:
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    Against thewall. Shawanda Renee Hill
    Whome? Lane:
    Yes.
    Shawanda Renee Hill
    What I do ? Lane:
    We’re figuring out what’s going on Drop the bag. ShawandaRenee Hill:
    Figure out what’s going on 00:03:54 . Lane:
    What’s the problem ? Shawanda Renee Hill:
    Somebody said something to him , it ain’t us. Speaker 7:
    Wewas getting aride, sir. Shawanda Renee Hill:
    just gotmy phone fixed. crosstalk 00:04:00 ). Speaker 7:
    You can ask Adam about us, Adam know me. Lane:
    Are you good? crosstalk 00:04:06 ]. You got ID Shawanda Renee Hill
    Come and getme, girl they going took Floyd to Jail, guna take Floyd to jail.
    Comeandgetme Speaker 7:
    YoucanaskMr.Adamaboutussir.YoucanaskMrAdamaboutme, coo.l Lane:
    DoyouhaveID? Shawanda Renee Hill:
    I’m on 38th and Chicago. 38th and Chicago. Lane:
    320 for code four Speaker 7
    YoucanaskMr.Adam aboutme,sir.Ijustcameandboughtatablet.AndwhenIboughtthetablet,it didn’twork orwhatever.
    Shawanda Renee Hill:
    OhmyGod,hedidn’t evendonothing. Speaker 7
    Here you go sir. Lane:
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    Do you haveID ShawandaRenee Hill
    No I don’t.Myname’s Shawanda ReneeHill. Fuck, no. Lane :
    Okay . Speaker 7:
    Sirher andi were justgetting aride, MrAdam ,MrAdam knowsmeman. Shawanda Renee Hill
    justcameovertogetmyphone.Yousee don’thaveapurseornothing,andmydaughterisonher wayto getme
    Lane:
    What’s his deal? Shawanda Renee Hill:
    I don’tknow Speaker 7
    Mr.Adam knowsme,sir. crosstalk 00:04:50 Shawanda Renee Hill:
    That’smyex. Idon’tknow . Lane:
    Why’shegetting allsquirrelly and not showing us his hands, and justbeingallweird like that ? Shawanda Renee Hill:
    i have no clue, because he’s been shot before . Lane:
    Well get that,butstillwhen officers say,”Getoutofthe car.” Ishedrunk, isheonsomething? Shawanda Renee Hill:
    No,hegotathinggoing on,I’m tellingyouaboutthepolice. Lane:
    What does thatmean ? Shawanda Renee Hill
    Hehave problems all the timewhen they come, especially when that man put that gun likethat. It’s been one.
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Lane:
    What’s your firstname? Shawanda Renee Hill:
    His name isGeorge Floyd. Lane:
    What isit? Speaker 7
    He’s a good guy. George Floyd she said. Lane:
    Can you spell that? Speaker 7:
    Axon_Body_3_Video_2020-05-25_2008 ( Completed
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    I don’tknow how to spellGeorgesir. Lane:
    Hername. ShawandaReneeHill
    Ohmyname? Lane:
    Yeah , yeah ShawandaReneeHill:
    ShawandaReneeHil.l Lane:
    Can you spell it? Shawanda ReneeHill
    S-H-A-W -A-N-D-A. Lane:
    S-H-A-W ShawandaReneeHill
    A-N-D-A. Speaker 7
    Heallrightsir.Like said,butMr.Adams ShawandaReneeHill
    Yeah, heok. Lane:
    Kueng,justputhim in thecar.Shawandawhat? ShawandaRenee Hill
    Hill,orRenee, R-E-N-E-E. Lane:
    What’syourlastname? ShawandaRenee Hill
    Hill, H-I-L-L. Lane:
    And your date of birth ? Shawanda Renee Hill
    isya’llcomingto getme. 1/27/75. Okay. Lane:
    – view latest version here.
    27 -CR -20-12951
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    7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Okaywellso here’sthething, someonepasseda fakebillin there.Wecomeoverhere,he starts grabbingforthekeysandallthatstuff, startsgettingweird,notshowingushishands.Idon’tknow
    what’s goingon, so you’re comingoutofthe car. So, just hang tightrighthere. Stayright here, please. George Floyd:
    Ouch, ouchman! Lane:
    What areyou on somethingrightnow ? George Floyd
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    No, nothing. Kueng:
    Because you acting a little erratic. Lane:
    Let’s go. Let’s go George Floyd:
    I’m scared ,man Lane:
    Let’s go Kueng:
    You got foam around yourmouth , too ? George Floyd:
    Yes, I was just hooping earlier . Lane:
    Let’s go George Floyd:
    Man,allrightletmecalm downnow.I’m feelingbetternow. Lane :
    Keep walking . George Floyd:
    Can youdomeonefavorman? Lane:
    No, when we get to the car. Let’s get to the carman, comeon. Kueng:
    Stopmoving around George Floyd:
    man,Goddon’tleavememan.Pleaseman,pleaseman. Lane:
    Here.Iwanttowatch thatcartoo, so justgethim in. Kueng:
    Standup,stopfallingdown!Standup Stayonyourfeetandfacethecar door! George Floyd:
    Im claustrophobic man, please man , please . Lane
    you get a search on him Kueng
    No,notyet. George Floyd:
    just want totalk toyouman.Please,letmetalk to you.Please. Lane
    Kueng
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    You ain’t listening to nothing we’re saying. George Floyd
    know Speaker 8
    So we’re not going to listen to nothing you saying. Lane:
    Can you watch thatcar? Just make sure no one goes in it. George Floyd
    Im claustrophobic . Kueng:
    hear you, but you are going to face this door right now . Lane:
    Listen up, stop! George Floyd:
    illdoanything,illdoanythingy’alltellmetooman.I’m notresistingman.I’mnot!I’mnot!Youcanask him , they know me.
    Lane:
    check that side. George Floyd :
    Godman, won’t do nothinglike that.Why is this going on like this? Look at mywrist Mr.Officer, I’m not thatkind ofguy
    Lane:
    Check the other side. George Floyd:
    Mr.Officer,MrOfficer,I’m notthatkindofguy. Lane:
    Stop
    George Floyd:
    Please, I’m not that kind of guy,Mr.Officer. Please! Lane:
    Just face away George Floyd:
    Please,man. Don’t leavemebymyselfman, please, I’m just claustrophobic that’s it. Lane:
    Well, you’re still going in the car. Kueng
    Anything sharp on you? George Floyd:
    Iwon’t donothing to hurt you,MrOfficer. Kueng
    Do you have anything sharp on you ? George Floyd:
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    No, sir. Kueng:
    Not even like a comb or nothing George Floyd:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    I don’thavenothing. Why y’alldoingmelikethis Mr.Officer? Please crack thewindow formeandstuff.
    am claustrophobicfor rea,lMr.Officer. Lane:
    You got him ? George Floyd:
    Could you please crack it for me, please? Lane:
    Yes, I’llcrack it.Iwill George Floyd
    Pleasestaywithmeman,thankyou.God,man.Ididn’tknow allthiswasgoingtohappenman.Please
    man 00:08:05 . I don’t want to do nothing to y’allman, nothing. Lane:
    You gotit? Kueng:
    yougettheinsideinnerpocketrealquickon yourside.I’m listening. George Floyd:
    understandthatpeopledo stuff,and Lane:
    Allright,he’sgood. justlookingforguns and whatever. George Floyd:
    Okay, okay, okay. Lane:
    grab aseat. George Floyd:
    Okay. Kueng:
    Why are you having trouble walking George Floyd:
    Because officer, inaudible 00:08:31]. Lane:
    I’llrollthe windowsdown, okay ? George Floyd:
    Please man, please don’t do this! Kueng:
    Take a seat! George Floyd
    I’m going in,Mr.Officer, I’m going in .
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    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Kueng:
    No, you’renot! George Floyd:
    I’m gunagoin! Kueng:
    Take a seat! Lane:
    Grab a seat,man. George Floyd
    Why don’t y’all believeme, Mr.Officer? Kueng:
    Take a seat ! George Floyd:
    I’mnotthatkindofguy!I’m notthatkindofguy,man! Kueng:
    Takea seat! George Floyd
    Y’all goingto dieinhere! goingto die,man! Kueng:
    You need to take a seat right now ! George Floyd:
    And I just had man, don’t want to go back to that. Lane:
    Okay, rollthe windowsdown.Hey, listen ! George Floyd:
    Dang, man Lane:
    Listen ! George Floyd:
    I’m notthatkindofguy. Lane:
    I’llrollthewindowsdownifyouputyour legsin allright? George Floyd:
    [ inaudible 00:08:57 ] look at that , look at that . Look at it ! Speaker 8
    putthe air on.
    You’re not even listening.Wecan fix it, butnotwhile you’re standing out here. George Floyd:
    Okay,man.God,y’alldomebadman.Man, I don’twant to try to twin to try to win.
    Speaker 9
    Quit resistingbro. George Floyd:
    Axon_Body_3_Video_2020-05-25_2008(Completed 06/10/20) Transcriptby Rev.com
    crosstalk 00:09:09] I don’t want
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    I don’t want to win . I’m claustrophobic, and i gotanxiety, I don’twant to do nothing to them ! Lane
    I’llroll window down. George Floyd:
    Man, I’m scared as fuckman . Speaker 9
    That’s okay, 00:09:12 . George Floyd:
    inaudible 00:09:12 ]when I startbreathing it’s going to go off onme,man. Lane:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Pullyourlegsin George Floyd :
    Okay, okay, letme countto three. Letme count to three andthen Speaker 9:
    going in, please.
    You can’t win ! George Floyd:
    I’m not trying to win! man, he know it
    Lane:
    I’llgo to the other side inaudible 00:09:21 George Floyd:
    Heknow ittooMr.Officerdon’tdomelikethat,man. Kueng
    Getin the car.
    George Floyd :
    Can Italk to youplease? Kueng
    Ifyougetin this car,wecan talk! George Floyd:
    I’m claustrophobic Kueng
    I’m hearingyou,butyou’renotworkingwithme! George Floyd:
    God, claustrophobic. Lane:
    Plant your butt overhere, Kueng:
    Get in the car ! George Floyd:
    CanIgetin thefront,please? Kueng
    No, you’re not getting in the front.
    Axon_Body_3_Video_2020-05-25_2008
    get on the ground , anything. I’ll get crosstalk 00:09:14 I can’t stand this shit
    going to pullyou in.
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    George Floyd:
    I’m claustrophobic,Mr.Officer. Kueng
    Getin the car! George Floyd:
    Okay,man,okay!I’m notabadguyman! Kueng:
    Get in the car ! George Floyd:
    I’m nota bad guy! Man, [inaudible 00:10:02 . Please, Mr.Officer! Please ! Kueng:
    Take a seat ! George Floyd :
    Please! Please! No, inaudible 00:10:10 . Kueng:
    Take a seat. George Floyd:
    I can’t choke,Ican’t breatheMr.Officer!Please! Please! Kueng:
    Fine.
    George Floyd
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Mywrist,mywristman. Okay, okay. I want to layon the ground.I want to layon the ground. I want to layon the ground!
    Lane:
    your getting in the squad. George Floyd :
    want to lay on the ground ! I’m going down, Kueng:
    Take asquat George Floyd
    I’m going down Speaker 9
    going down, I’m going down.
    Bro, you about tohave aheartattack and shitman,get in the car! George Floyd:
    I know I can’t breathe. I can’t breathe crosstalk 00:10:18 ] . Lane:
    Get him on the ground . George Floyd:
    Let go ofmeman , I can’t breathe. I can’t breathe. Lane:
    Take a seat George Floyd:
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    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Please,man. Please listen to me. Chauvin :
    Ishegoingto jail? George Floyd: Pleaselisten to me.
    Kueng
    He’s under arrest rightnow for forgery. George Floyd:
    Forgery forwhat? for what ? Lane:
    Let’stakehim outandjustMRE. George Floyd:
    can’t fucking breatheman.I can’t fucking breathe. Kueng:
    Here, Comeon out! George Floyd:
    inaudible 00:11:10) thank you. Thank you. Thao:
    Justlayhim ontheground. Lane:
    Can you just get up on the, I appreciate that, I do. Chauvin :
    Do you got your ah, restraint, Hobble? George Floyd:
    I can’tbreathe. I can’t breathe. I can’t breathe. Lane:
    Jesus Christ. George Floyd:
    can’t breathe. Lane:
    Thank you. George Floyd:
    I can’tbreathe. Kueng
    Stop moving George Floyd:
    Mama,mama, mama, mama. Kueng:
    [inaudible 00:11:45] one of the frontpouches George Floyd:
    Mama,mama, mama. Kueng:
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    …on my right side bag. George Floyd:
    Mama,mama,mama. Lane:
    320 Can we get EMScode2, for one bleedingfrom themouth. Chauvin :
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Your under arrest guy. George Floyd:
    Allright, allright. OhmyGod. I can’tbelievethis.I Chauvin :
    So your goingto jai.l Lane:
    Affirm . George Floyd:
    believe this.
    I can’t believe this man. Mom , I love you. [ Reese 00:12:09] I love you. Lane:
    You got 00:12:10). George Floyd:
    TellmykidsIlovethem.I’m dead Lane:
    Mine’sinmy side,it’s listed, it’s labeled. Itsays hobble, it’s in the top. George Floyd:
    Ican’tbreatheornothingman.Thiscold bloodedman.Ah- Chauvin :
    You’re doing a lotoftalking,man . George Floyd
    Mama, I love you. I can’t do nothing. Kueng:
    EMSison their way
    welldo you wantahobbleatthis point then? Lane:
    !Ah-Ah!Ah-Ah!
    Um ok , allriggt George Floyd:
    Myface is gone.
    can’t breathe. Lane:
    Can you getupon the sidewalkplease, onesideorthe other please? George Floyd:
    Myface is getting it bad. Lane:
    Here, should we gethis legs up, or is this good?
    Axon_Body_3_Video_2020-05-25_2008(Completed 06/10/20)
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    00:12:33 . I can’t breathe man. Please! Please, letmestand. Please,man
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    Chauvin
    Leave him Kueng:
    Just leave him yep Chauvin :
    Just leave him Lane:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Allright.HopefullyPark’sstillsitting onthecar.Theywere,Hewasactingrealshadylikesomething’sin there .
    Thao
    Ishehighon something? Lane:
    I’m assuming so Kueng:
    Ibelieve so,we found a pipe. Lane:
    Hewouldn’t get outof the car. He wasn’t following instructions. [crosstalk 00:13:10). Yeah, it’s across the street Park’s watching it, two other people with him .
    George Floyd:
    Please, I can’tbreathe. Please,man. Pleaseman! Thao:DoyouhaveEMScoming code3?
    Lane:
    Ahcode2,wecanprobably stepitupthen. Yougotit?(crosstalk00:13:29 . George Floyd:
    Please ,man ! Thao:
    Relax! George Floyd:
    can’t breathe. Kueng
    You’re fine, you’re talking fine. Lane:
    Your talken , Deep breath . George Floyd:
    I can’t breathe. Ican’t breathe. Ah! I’llprobably just die this way. Thao:
    Relax
    George Floyd :
    can’t breathemy face. Lane :
    He’s got to be on something. Thao
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    What areyou on? George Floyd :
    breathe.Please, inaudible00:14:00 Speaker 9
    27 -CR -20-12951
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    breathe.Shit.
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Wellgetup andgetin thecar,man.Getupandgetinthecar. George Floyd:
    I will I can’tmove. Speaker 9:
    Lethim getinthecar. Lane :
    Wefoundaweed pipeonhim,theremightbesomethingelse,theremightbelikePCPorsomething.Is that the shaking of the eyesrightis PCP ?
    George Floyd :
    Myknee,myneck. Lane:
    Where their eyes like shakeback and forth really fast? George Floyd:
    Im through, through. I’m claustrophobic. Mystomach hurts. Myneckhurts. Everythinghurts. Ineed
    somewater or something, please. Please ?I can’t breathe officer. Chauvin :
    Then stop talking, stop yelling. George Floyd:
    You’re going to killme,man. Chauvin :
    Then stop talking, stop yelling, it takes a heck of a lot of oxygen to talk . George Floyd:
    Comeon,man.Oh, oh. crosstalk 00:15:03].I cannotbreathe.I cannotbreathe. Ah! They’llkillme. They’ll killme. I can’t breathe. I can’tbreathe. !
    Speaker 8
    We tried that for 10minutes. George Floyd :
    Ah! Ah! Please. Please. Please. Lane:
    Shouldwerollhim on hisside? Chauvin
    No,he’s stayingputwherewegothim . Lane:
    Okay. justworry aboutthe excited delirium orwhatever. Chauvin
    Well that’s why wegot the ambulance coming. Lane:
    Okay, isuppose.
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    Speaker 13:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota
    7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Gethim offtheground,bro.Gethim offtheground crosstalk00:16:16.Heain’tdoanyofthatshit.He a fuckingbum bro, he enjoyingthat shit rightnow bro. You couldhavefuckingputhim in the car by
    now,bro.He’snotresistingarrestornothing. inaudible00:16:48] bodylanguageiscrazy. crosstalk
    00:16:48] dudes at the academybro. you know thatbogusrightnow bro. Youknow it’sbogus. Youcan’t
    even look atmelike amanbecauseyou now bro.
    ShawandaReneeHill:
    He’s aboutto passout. Lane:
    I thinkhe’spassingout. Speaker 13
    He’snotevenbreathingright 00:16:58]
    Chauvin :
    you guys alright though ? Lane:
    00:16:48] bro. He’s not even resistingarrest right
    He’s breathing Kueng
    He’s breathing. crosstalk 00:17:26). Chauvin :
    Don’t comeover here. Don’t comeover here. Lane:
    Up on the sidewalk! Kueng :
    Weneedyoutokeepsomedistance. Speaker 14
    Ishe responsive? Chauvin :
    yea, we have an ambulance coming Speaker 14
    Doeshehave a pulse? Speaker 8
    Get off crosstalk 00:17:42 . Lane:
    Should we rollhim on his side? Speaker 13
    Axon_Body_3_Video_2020-05-25_2008
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    bro, you thinkthat’scool?Youthinkthat’scoo,lright?[crosstalk
    Yeah, Imeanmykneemightbea little scratched,butI’llsurvive. Speaker 13
    You’re a bum bro, you’re a bum for that. Can’t you be aman and see here he’s notbreathing rightnow . Lane:
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    He’s notresponsive rightnow, bro. Speaker 14
    Doeshe have a pulse? Speaker 13
    No, bro . Look at him , he’snot responsive right now , bro. Bro, are you serious? Lane:
    you gotone? Speaker 14:
    Letme see a pulse. Kueng
    i couldn’t fine one Speaker 13
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Is he breathingright now ? Check his pulse. Check his pulse. Check his pulse. inaudible 00:18:19 check
    hispulse. crosstalk 00:18:19). Check hispulse, bro. inaudible 00:18:21] drugs bro. What you think that is? crosstalk 00:18:25). Youcallwhat youdoingokay?[inaudible00:18:25 .
    Speaker 14
    Yes, I am from Minneapolis. Speaker 15
    Okay, get off the sidewalk . Speaker 14:
    Showmehispulse. Check itrightfucking now . Speaker 15:
    Getback on the sidewalk. [crosstalk 00:18:33). Speaker 14
    He’s notmoving! Speaker 13:
    Bro, you’re a bum bro. You’re a bum bro. Speaker 14
    Checkhispulserightnow andtellmewhatitis. Tellmewhathispulseisrightnow. Speaker 13:
    Check his pulse. Bro, he has not moved ( crosstalk 00:19:43). Lane:
    What ?
    Dispatch: Squad 330 EMSis at Portland and 36th theywere advised of code 3. Lane:
    Therewere advisedwhat?
    Kueng
    Ofcode 3 Chauvin :
    Acknowledge that Dispatch:
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    Copy i was just giving you their updated location, they are en route. Lane:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Therewego. Speaker 13
    Bro , he was just moving when I walked up
    [inaudible 00:19:43 ]. Speaker 16:
    crosstalk 00:19:43 ]. Bro, he’s not fucking moving! Bro
    Get the fuck off of him what are you doing? crosstalk 00:19:43 . dying bro, what are you doing ? Lane:
    He’s not responsive right now , you guys probably want to crosstalk 00:19:44 ]. Yeah. Speaker 16
    Get off him ! crosstalk 00:19:53 . Lane:
    Should we get another car?Another car just for the crowd. inaudible 00:20:06 ) Chauvin :
    Let’s get him on inaudible 00:20:11 . Speaker 13
    inaudible 00:20:14 bro inaudible 00:20:16] like that. inaudible 00:20:17 thatman in front ofyou, bro ?He’s noteven fuckingmoving rightnow,bro. crosstalk 00:20:23).
    Lane:
    yourlightson again Speaker 17
    Youguys can get out oftheway. [crosstalk 00:21:11.
    Lane:
    Youwantoneofusto ridewith? Kueng:
    Yeah . Lane :
    Ridewith? Okay. Idon’t havemyphone so I’llbeBaker (crosstalk 00:21:48].What’sthat? Chauvin:
    Gelt them belted Down Kueng:
    Help getbelted down. Chauvin :
    Getbelted down Lane:
    yup, where we going ? Speaker 17
    We’re justgoing to be downthe street. Lane :
    Okay
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    Speaker 17
    You guyswantto shutthedoors, getout ofhere, andwe’re goingtogodownthe street. Lane:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    Doyouwanthere orno? Speaker 17:
    Yeah , go to something, 40th , Tell fire where to go . Lane:
    Okay.Doyouwantmein thereorno? Speaker 17
    yea. Lane:
    Allright. Oops. Speaker 17:
    You’re fine. Kueng:
    Lane ? Lane :
    Yep Kueng:
    This yours ? Lane:
    Yeah,nope. Speaker 17:
    All rightwhatwas going on ? Lane:
    Itwas forgery report Speaker 17:
    Yep Lane:
    And he was just notcompliant with getting outof the car. Speaker 17
    Okay Lane:
    Weweretryingtogethim inthebackofthesquad,andhe Speaker 17:
    Yep. Lane:
    justbasicallyresisting.
    Hewasn’tshowingushishandsatfirst.Thenweweretryingto gethim intothesquad,hekickedhis way out,he was kickingon there. And we cameout the other side, and hewas fighting us, andwewere
    justbasicallyrestrainedhim untilyouguysgot . Speaker 17
    Okay . You do CPR
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    Lane:
    Allright. You wantmedoing just compressions? Speaker 17:
    Just compressions for now please, thank you. Speaker 17:
    Okay.slide under. All right, keep doing compressions. Lane:
    Keep checking airway or just constant Speaker 17:
    Constant compressions. Lane:
    Constant compressions, all right. Speaker 17
    I can do an airwaycheckifyouwant inaudible00:23:53].Hehadtobedetained,physicalforce,and inaudible 00:24:05 .
    Lane:
    You got his arm in it? You good? Speaker 17
    Yep, just getthis bar uphere. Pullitout, inaudible00:24:41] there you go. Lane:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota 11:00 AM
    Wantmetopullitout?Whatdoyouneed?Ithinkit’sthecloth which waydoesithook?Therewego, therewego. Fuck,sorry
    Speaker 17
    You told inaudible 00:24:54 right? Thank you. [ inaudible 00:24:54 . Lane:
    Should i still be touching him , or is that going to, electric go . Speaker 17
    Tell him to come code three we’re working an arrest. Do you need inaudible00:26:10 location 00:26:11].
    Dispatch:
    Squad 320 , if you would let know that EMS, Fire needs to go to Park and 36th, patient in full arrest now .
    Speaker 17:
    I told her. Oh (inaudible 00:26:34 Lane:
    Yeah Dispatch:
    320 Lane:
    320 . Dispatch:
    Canyouadvisethe
    department inaudible00:26:49).
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    Lane:
    Filedin DistrictCourt State ofMinnesota
    7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    320BakertoAble,canyou,ifyou’restillonscene, withEMS,canyouadviseFire?Youguysneedme to do anything?
    Speaker 17
    You’re good, glove up why don’t you. Lane:
    Yeah. Youneedme to hold his airway or? Speaker 17
    No, onesecond Lane
    Okay . Speaker 17
    Okay, do this about every Lane:
    One pump? Speaker 17
    Every time this lights up give it a squeeze. Lane:
    One pump? Speaker 17
    Yep . Lane:
    All right Speaker 17
    Washe fighting with you guys for a long time? Lane :
    No.Imean littlebit,butnotalongtime,maybeaminuteortwo.Wewerejusttryingtogethim inthe
    squad, and then he cameout the other end, so wewere likewe’lljustwait. Speaker 17:
    A lot of activity prior? Lane:
    It took a bit to get him , I mean we got him out of the car and handcuffed him , and were walking him over there,walkingacrossthestreet. Youneedmeto trade places?
    Speaker 17
    Yeah inaudible 00:29:28 Lane:
    You guysneedmehere stiller? Speaker 17
    You’re good,we’re good thankyou. Lane:
    Okay . Speaker 17:
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    Filedin DistrictCourt StateofMinnesota
    7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    There’s abagover Lane:
    320 Baker to Able, Speaker 19:
    00:30:09
    Lane:
    Oh. That’s fine, that’s good. Speaker 19
    Okay. inaudible 00:30:27 . So whathappened,more drama at Cup Foods? Lane:
    Cup Foods, yeah . It was just a forgery report, and that was the guy that they said was the person that had given them a fake bill. Wewent over there , and yeah just …
    Speaker 19:
    Wentbananas? Lane:
    be at Park and 36 when you’re done there. What’s that?Okay
    watch the foot pedal it’s down there [ inaudible 00:30:22 .
    Yeah.Imeanhewas… weretryingtogethim outofthecar,hekepthishandlikethisbasically, wasn’t showingmehis hands. So I’m like, “Letmesee yourother hand ” I gave him a couple commands forthat,hewouldn’tdoit,andthenhefinallydid.Sothenwe’relikeallrightwe’regoingtogethim out
    ofthecarrightnow.Becausehekeptlookingforthekey,Ithoughthewasgoingtotry anddriveoff. Speaker 19:
    geez. Lane :
    Yep . Speaker 19
    Man. Yeah, wedidn’t understand because itwas like come to the, so we’re there and the officers there are likenonono, andyeah, the crowdwasa little, yeah.
    Lane:
    Yeah Speaker 19
    Man, yuck. Lane:
    Notsure ifmycohort is cominghere. I gavemylocation. Otherwise, Imightjust ridewith them them there.
    Speaker 19
    Okay, Yeah. Lane:
    Was there a big crowd there then ? Speaker 19
    and help
    Yeah,moreinside.Wewaited…ournewSOPsareto ,towaitlikeifihavecootiesgoingon,solike captainusuallygoesinandmaybebringstherookie,itkindofdepends.Andthen 00:31:49]
    yeah we just waited because itwas like
    sitting here I’m like now it says code three, I just don’t understand. And then we figured outwhere it
    00:31:54] code2mouthinjury.Andthen aswe’re wasso,andthen one ofyourofficerswaslikehey,heyding-dongs,you’re atthewrongspot.”
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    Lane:
    27 -CR -20-12951
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    Filedin DistrictCourt StateofMinnesota
    7/7/2020 11:00 AM
    I’m notsureifhe’scomingherebut,ohyouguysstillhavetherolldown. Speaker 19
    Oh yeah, you know . Lane:
    Nice. Speaker 19:
    Nothing but the best. Yeah . Yeah , so he crashed in the inaudible 00:32:22 ] . I wonder what he was on . Lane:
    Not sure, but yeah he seemed very agitated and paranoid. Speaker 19
    That’s a shame. Lane:
    Yeah. Speaker 19
    Itseemslikeifit’switnessed, theresultscanbeprettygoodifthey’redoingCPRrightaway,sothat’s
    good. Because they get stuff going so quickly , … Lane
    Yeah . Speaker 19
    But yeah, they need more hands, that’s why . Dispatch :
    inaudible 00:33:25 ] please return to Cup foods inaudible 00:33:25 ] firefighter
    there. Check in with hermake sure she’s okay (inaudible 00:33:25 . Lane:
    They’re goingdown to county? Speaker 19
    00:33:25 ]
    They’re going to go down to county . I’m going back to Cup Foods. I’m just going to talk inaudible 00:33:30 ).
    Lane:
    Yeah .
    Speaker 19:
    We can take you there. Lane:
    I’lljust check and seeiftheywantmeto gowith. Do you guyswantmeridingwith or… Speaker 17
    No, be allright there plenty of people, thank you though . Lane:
    Allright. Yeah, if youdon’tmind giving mearide back up there. Speaker 19
    Noproblem . Yeah, inaudible 00:34:14 ). Lane:
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    • This topic was modified 4 years, 11 months ago by Avatar photojoemad.
    July 9, 2020 at 9:09 am #117755

    In reply to: Change it (the Washington team name thread)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator
    wv wrote:

    Yeah, I’m glad they are keeping the burgandy and gold. I actually think thats important to the fans. And its one of my favorite color schemes. So there’s that.

    Snyder is such a piece of shit.

    w
    v

    My high school team (and I played on it for a couple of years–linebacker) was/is burgundy and gold. I’ve always loved burgundy and gold.

    We were called the Brebeuf Braves.

    The school was named after St. Jean de Brebeuf, who was martyred by the Iroquis.

    So “Braves” was an interesting nickname choice.

    A rich donor commissioned a painting in the school cafeteria of a patiently enduring St. Jean tied to a stake and being ruthlessly tortured by Iroquis…braves. The painting was wall sized and took up one entire whole end of the room.

    Fortunately, another rich donor gifted the school a huge curtain to close in front of the painting, so we could eat in peace.

    ==

    The Brebeuf Braves.

    —

    Here’s St. Jean. This is not the painting I referred to obviously but they are of a kind. Our St. Jean had his eyes open looking heavenward in saintly forbearance etc.

    —

    July 7, 2020 at 12:28 pm #117667

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator
    zn wrote:

    Coronavirus herd immunity may be ‘unachievable’ because antibodies disappear after a few weeks in some people

    more

    —

    from COVID-19: Trying for herd immunity without vaccine ‘unethical’ and ‘unachievable

    https://www.bioworld.com/articles/436257-covid-19-trying-for-herd-immunity-without-vaccine-unethical-and-unachievable

    A large epidemiological study published in the July 6, 2020, advance online issue of The Lancet found that most individuals who became infected with SARS-CoV-2 developed antibodies to the virus, confirming that infection usually results in at least a short-term immune response.

    However, the results of antibody testing also showed that at least a third of SARS-CoV-2 infections were asymptomatic, and in some of those patients, the antibody response waned more quickly, potentially leaving them vulnerable to reinfection.

    …

    Within Europe, Sweden’s attempt to achieve herd immunity via avoiding lockdowns for the general population has resulted in one of the highest per capita COVID-19 death rates of the world. But as of the end of April, around 7.4% of the Swedish population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2.

    In a commentary that was published along with the ENE-COVID study results, researchers at the University of Geneva’s Center for Emerging Viral Diseases wrote that “any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable.”

    The authors of the study themselves made the same point. “Despite the high impact of COVID-19 in Spain” – which was the epicenter of the European outbreak after Lombardy, and has had the highest number of diagnosed cases of any country in the European Union – “prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide herd immunity,” they wrote. Such herd immunity “cannot be achieved without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening of health systems.”

    July 3, 2020 at 5:35 pm #117551

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    Fwiw:
    Study finds COVID-19 hospital patients who took hydroxychloroquine were less likely to die.
    link:https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/study-finds-covid-19-patients-who-took-hydroxychloroquine-were-less-likely-to-die

    Quick summary of results:
    Hospitalized Covid-19 patients in the Henry Ford Health System in southeast Michigan.

    18.1% of patients died overall.
    HCQ group: 13.5% died
    Azithromycin: 22.4% died
    HCQ+ Azithromycin: 20.1% died
    Neither drug: 26.4% died

    The study was “among one of the largest COVID-19 hospital patientcohorts (n=2,541) assembled in a single institution”
    Researchers attribute the success of the HCQ and HCQ combinations to early treatment….
    ————-

    July 3, 2020 at 2:36 pm #117543

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from Rocketing Covid-19 infections expose Trump’s callous claim pandemic is ‘handled’

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/03/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-texas-arizona-florida/index.html

    The United States, the world leader in Covid-19 infections and deaths, is reeling from an out-of-control resurgence of the virus that is racking up record numbers of 50,000-plus new infections each day now.
    Texas, Florida and Arizona — Republican-run states that most aggressively embraced Trump’s impatient demands to get the economy open again — are heading into what one expert warned is a viral threat that is approaching “apocalyptic” levels.

    June 29, 2020 at 6:57 am #117309

    Topic: SARS-C0V-2 vaccine & what we know about immunity

    in forum The Public House
    Avatar photonittany ram
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    I copied and pasted the article below but it looks wonky. The link has interactive graphics so that is the best way to read the article. ..

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html

    A vaccine would be the ultimate weapon against the coronavirus and the best route back to normal life. Officials like Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the top infectious disease expert on the Trump administration’s coronavirus task force, estimate a vaccine could arrive in at least 12 to 18 months.

    The grim truth behind this rosy forecast is that a vaccine probably won’t arrive any time soon. Clinical trials almost never succeed. We’ve never released a coronavirus vaccine for humans before. Our record for developing an entirely new vaccine is at least four years — more time than the public or the economy can tolerate social-distancing orders.

    But if there was any time to fast-track a vaccine, it is now. So Times Opinion asked vaccine experts how we could condense the timeline and get a vaccine in the next few months instead of years.

    Here’s how we might achieve the impossible.

    Assume We Already Understand the Coronavirus
    Options to shorten the timeline
    Start trials early
    Rely on work from studying SARS and MERS to shorten preparations before clinical trials
    Click to turn on
    Don’t wait for academic research
    Skip to clinical phases using what we know about the coronavirus so far
    2020
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    Normally, researchers need years to secure funding, get approvals and study results piece by piece. But these are not normal times.

    There are already at least 254 therapies and 95 vaccines related to Covid-19 being explored.

    “If you want to make that 18-month timeframe, one way to do that is put as many horses in the race as you can,” said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

    Companies with vaccine trials underway
    Dozens of vaccines are starting clinical trials. Many use experimental RNA and DNA technology, which provides the body with instructions to produce its own antibodies against the virus.

    Select vaccines by clinical trial start date

    RNA and DNA vaccines

    Other vaccine types

    2020

    Feb.

    March

    April

    May

    June

    July

    Aug.

    Sept.

    Oct.

    Nov.

    Dec.

    CanSino and the A.M.M.S.

    Moderna

    BioNTech and Pfizer

    Inovio Pharmaceuticals

    Sinovac

    Wuhan Institute and Sinopharm

    U. of Oxford

    Uses 1 microgram of

    mRNA, meaning it

    could be more easily

    mass produced

    Imperial College

    Novavax

    CureVac

    Sanofi and GSK

    Exploring a new form of

    oral vaccine, which has

    never been licensed

    Vaxart

    Altimmune

    Janssen

    Note: Clinical trial start dates are approximate. Compiled by Robert van Exan.
    Despite the unprecedented push for a vaccine, researchers caution that less than 10 percent of drugs that enter clinical trials are ever approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

    The rest fail in one way or another: They are not effective, don’t perform better than existing drugs or have too many side effects.

    Less than 10 percent of drug trials are ultimately approved
    Probability of success at each phase of research

    37% fail

    Phase 1

    69% fail

    Phase 2

    42% fail

    Phase 3

    15% fail

    New Drug

    Application

    Approved

    Note: Between 2006 and 2015. Source: Biotechnology Innovation Organization, Biomedtracker, Amplion.
    Fortunately, we already have a head start on the first phase of vaccine development: research. The outbreaks of SARS and MERS, which are also caused by coronaviruses, spurred lots of research. SARS and SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, are roughly 80 percent identical, and both use so-called spike proteins to grab onto a specific receptor found on cells in human lungs. This helps explain how scientists developed a test for Covid-19 so quickly.

    There’s a cost to moving so quickly, however. The potential Covid-19 vaccines now in the pipeline might be more likely to fail because of the swift march through the research phase, said Robert van Exan, a cell biologist who has worked in the vaccine industry for decades. He predicts we won’t see a vaccine approved until at least 2021 or 2022, and even then, “this is very optimistic and of relatively low probability.”

    And yet, he said, this kind of fast-tracking is “worth the try — maybe we will get lucky.”

    Years and years, at minimum
    The vaccine development process has typically taken a decade or longer.

    Varicella

    28 years

    FluMist

    28

    Human papillomavirus

    15

    Rotavirus

    15

    Pediatric combination

    11

    Covid-19 goal

    18 months

    Note: Rotavirus and HPV vaccines include time from filing of the first investigational new drug to approval. Source: “Plotkin’s Vaccines” (7th edition)
    The next step in the process is pre-clinical and preparation work, where a pilot factory is readied to produce enough vaccine for trials. Researchers relying on groundwork from the SARS and MERS outbreaks could theoretically move through planning steps swiftly.

    Sanofi, a French biopharmaceutical company, expects to begin clinical trials late this year for a Covid-19 vaccine that it repurposed from work on a SARS vaccine. If successful, the vaccine could be ready by late 2021.

    Move at ‘Pandemic Speed’ Through Trials
    Options to shorten the timeline
    Use ‘pandemic speed’ timeline
    Start subsequent steps before previous phases are completed
    Push to large-scale tests sooner
    Move more swiftly to Phase 3 trials by combining phases
    Use emergency provision
    Vaccinate front-line and essential workers early
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    As a rule, researchers don’t begin jabbing people with experimental vaccines until after rigorous safety checks.

    They test the vaccine first on small batches of people — a few dozen during Phase 1, then a few hundred in Phase 2, then thousands in Phase 3. Months normally pass between phases so that researchers can review the findings and get approvals for subsequent phases.

    But “if we do it the conventional way, there’s no way we’re going to be reaching that timeline of 18 months,” said Akiko Iwasaki, a professor of immunobiology at Yale University School of Medicine and an investigator at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

    There are ways to slash time off this process by combining several phases and testing vaccines on more people without as much waiting.

    Last week the National Academy of Sciences showed an overlapping timeline, describing it as moving at “pandemic speed.”

    It’s here that talk of fast-tracking the timeline meets the messiness of real life: What if a promising vaccine actually makes it easier to catch the virus, or makes the disease worse after someone’s infected?

    That’s been the case for a few H.I.V. drugs and vaccines for dengue fever, because of a process called vaccine-induced enhancement, in which the body reacts unexpectedly and makes the disease more dangerous.

    Researchers can’t easily infect vaccinated participants with the coronavirus to see how the body behaves. They normally wait until some volunteers contract the virus naturally. That means dosing people in regions hit hardest by the virus, like New York, or vaccinating family members of an infected person to see if they get the virus next. If the pandemic subsides, this step could be slowed.

    “That’s why vaccines take such a long time,” said Dr. Iwasaki. “But we’re making everything very short. Hopefully we can evaluate these risks as they occur, as soon as possible.”

    This is where the vaccine timelines start to diverge depending on who you are, and where some people might get left behind.

    If a vaccine proves successful in early trials, regulators could issue an emergency-use provision so that doctors, nurses and other essential workers could get vaccinated right away — even before the end of the year. Researchers at Oxford announced this week that their coronavirus vaccine could be ready for emergency use by September if trials prove successful.

    So researchers might produce a viable vaccine in just 12 to 18 months, but that doesn’t mean you’re going to get it. Millions of people could be in line before you. And that’s only if the United States finds a vaccine first. If another country, like China, beats us to it, we could wait even longer while it doses its citizens first.

    You might be glad of that, though, if it turned out that the fast-tracked vaccine caused unexpected problems. Only after hundreds or thousands are vaccinated would researchers be able to see if a fast-tracked vaccine led to problems like vaccine-induced enhancement.

    “It’s true that any new technology comes with a learning curve,” said Dr. Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “And sometimes that learning curve has a human price.”

    Start Preparing Factories Now
    Options to shorten the timeline
    Make vaccines early
    Build and manufacture early, anticipating that factories will be useful for a future vaccine and that the product will clear regulatory hurdles
    Take a bet on a successful mRNA vaccine
    This experimental technology may be faster to produce than traditional vaccines
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    Once we have a working vaccine in hand, companies will need to start producing millions — perhaps billions — of doses, in addition to the millions of vaccine doses that are already made each year for mumps, measles and other illnesses. It’s an undertaking almost unimaginable in scope.

    Companies normally build new facilities perfectly tailored to any given vaccine because each vaccine requires different equipment. Some flu vaccines are produced using chicken eggs, using large facilities where a version of the virus is incubated and harvested. Other vaccines require vats in which a virus is cultured in a broth of animal cells and later inactivated and purified.

    Those factories follow strict guidelines governing biological facilities and usually take around five years to build, costing at least three times more than conventional pharmaceutical factories. Manufacturers may be able to speed this up by creating or repurposing existing facilities in the middle of clinical trials, long before the vaccine in question receives F.D.A. approval.

    “They just can’t wait,” said Dr. Iwasaki. “If it turns out to be a terrible vaccine, they won’t distribute it. But at least they’ll have the capability” to do so if the vaccine is successful.

    The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation says it will build factories for seven different vaccines. “Even though we’ll end up picking at most two of them, we’re going to fund factories for all seven, just so that we don’t waste time,” Bill Gates said during an appearance on “The Daily Show.”

    In the end, the United States will have the capacity to mass-produce only two or three vaccines, said Vijay Samant, the former head of vaccine manufacturing at Merck.

    “The manufacturing task is insurmountable,” Mr. Samant said. “I get sleepless nights thinking about it.”

    Consider just one seemingly simple step: putting the vaccine into vials. Manufacturers need to procure billions of vials, and billions of stoppers to seal them. Sophisticated machines are needed to fill them precisely, and each vial is inspected on a high-speed line. Then vials are stored, shipped and released to the public using a chain of temperature-controlled facilities and trucks. At each of these stages, producers are already stretched to meet existing demands, Mr. Samant said.

    It’s a bottleneck similar to the one that caused a dearth of ventilators, masks and other personal protective equipment just as Covid-19 surged across America.

    If you talk about vaccines long enough, a new type of vaccine, called Messenger RNA (or mRNA for short), inevitably comes up. There are hopes it could be manufactured at a record clip. Mr. Gates even included it on his Time magazine list of six innovations that could change the world. Is it the miracle we’re waiting for?

    Rather than injecting subjects with disease-specific antigens to stimulate antibody production, mRNA vaccines give the body instructions to create those antigens itself. Because mRNA vaccines don’t need to be cultured in large quantities and then purified, they are much faster to produce. They could change the course of the fight against Covid-19.

    “On the other hand,” said Dr. van Exan, “no one has ever made an RNA vaccine for humans.”

    Researchers conducting dozens of trials hope to change that, including one by the pharmaceutical company Moderna. Backed by investor capital and spurred by federal funding of up to $483 million to tackle Covid-19, Moderna has already fast-tracked an mRNA vaccine. It’s entering Phase 1 trials this year and the company says it could have a vaccine ready for front-line workers later this year.

    “Could it work? Yeah, it could work,” said Dr. Fred Ledley, a professor of natural biology and applied sciences at Bentley University. “But in terms of the probability of success, what our data says is that there’s a lower chance of approval and the trials take longer.”

    The technology is decades old, yet mRNA is not very stable and can break down inside the body.

    “At this point, I’m hoping for anything to work,” said Dr. Iwasaki. “If it does work, wonderful, that’s great. We just don’t know.”

    The fixation on mRNA shows the allure of new and untested treatments during a medical crisis. Faced with the unsatisfying reality that our standard arsenal takes years to progress, the mRNA vaccine offers an enticing story mixed with hope and a hint of mystery. But it’s riskier than other established approaches.

    Speed Up Regulatory Approvals
    Options to shorten the timeline
    Fast-track federal approvals
    Shorten approval window from a year to six months
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    Imagine that the fateful day arrives. Scientists have created a successful vaccine. They’ve manufactured huge quantities of it. People are dying. The economy is crumbling. It’s time to start injecting people.

    But first, the federal government wants to take a peek.

    That might seem like a bureaucratic nightmare, a rubber stamp that could cost lives. There’s even a common gripe among researchers: For every scientist employed by the F.D.A., there are three lawyers. And all they care about is liability.

    Yet F.D.A. approvals are no mere formality. Approvals typically take a full year, during which time scientists and advisory committees review the studies to make sure that the vaccine is as safe and effective as drug makers say it is.

    While some steps in the vaccine timeline can be fast-tracked or skipped entirely, approvals aren’t one of them. There are horror stories from the past where vaccines were not properly tested. In the 1950s, for example, a poorly produced batch of a polio vaccine was approved in a few hours. It contained a version of the virus that wasn’t quite dead, so patients who got it actually contracted polio. Several children died.

    The same scenario playing out today could be devastating for Covid-19, with the anti-vaccination movement and online conspiracy theorists eager to disrupt the public health response. So while the F.D.A. might do this as fast as possible, expect months to pass before any vaccine gets a green light for mass public use.

    At this point you might be asking: Why are all these research teams announcing such optimistic forecasts when so many experts are skeptical about even an 18-month timeline? Perhaps because it’s not just the public listening — it’s investors, too.

    “These biotechs are putting out all these press announcements,” said Dr. Hotez. “You just need to recognize they’re writing this for their shareholders, not for the purposes of public health.”

    What if It Takes Even Longer Than the Pessimists Predict?
    Covid-19 lives in the shadow of the most vexing virus we’ve ever faced: H.I.V. After nearly 40 years of work, here is what we have to show for our vaccine efforts: a few Phase 3 clinical trials, one of which actually made the disease worse, and another with a success rate of just 30 percent.

    Deaths per year
    The number of deaths from Covid-19 in 2020 has surpassed the number of deaths per year from H.I.V./AIDS during the height of the crisis in the 1990s.

    60k deaths

    Deaths from

    Covid-19 in

    the U.S.

    50k

    40k

    Deaths from

    H.I.V./AIDS

    in the U.S.

    30k

    20k

    10k

    0

    1990

    2000

    2010

    2020

    Note: No H.I.V. death data available after 2018. Covid-19 deaths as of April 29. Source: Mortality Informatics and Research Analytics.
    Researchers say they don’t expect a successful H.I.V. vaccine until 2030 or later, putting the timeline at around 50 years.

    That’s unlikely to be the case for Covid-19, because, as opposed to H.I.V., it doesn’t appear to mutate significantly and exists within a family of familiar respiratory viruses. Even still, any delay will be difficult to bear.

    But the history of H.I.V. offers a glimmer of hope for how life could continue even without a vaccine. Researchers developed a litany of antiviral drugs that lowered the death rate and improved health outcomes for people living with AIDS. Today’s drugs can lower the viral load in an H.I.V.-positive person so the virus can’t be transmitted through sex.

    Therapeutic drugs, rather than vaccines, might likewise change the fight against Covid-19. The World Health Organization began a global search for drugs to treat Covid-19 patients in March. If successful, those drugs could lower the number of hospital admissions and help people recover faster from home while narrowing the infection window so fewer people catch the virus.

    Combine that with rigorous testing and contact tracing — where infected patients are identified and their recent contacts notified and quarantined — and the future starts looking a little brighter. So far, the United States is conducting fewer than half the number of tests required and we need to recruit more than 300,000 contact-tracers. But other countries have started reopening following exactly these steps.

    If all those things come together, life might return to normal long before a vaccine is ready to shoot into your arm.

    Stuart A. Thompson is a writer and the graphics director for Times Opinion.

    Source: Clinical trial medians from “Development Times and Approval Success Rates for Drugs to Treat Infectious Diseases”

    Stuart A. Thompson is a writer and the graphics director for Times Opinion.

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    • This topic was modified 4 years, 11 months ago by Avatar photonittany ram.
    June 28, 2020 at 12:36 pm #117276

    Topic: on the virus AND race

    in forum The Public House
    Avatar photozn
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    ‘Like leaning into a left hook’: coronavirus calamity unfolds across divided US
    In a week that saw the worst day on record for new cases, Trump shrugs as experts warn Americans not to follow his lead

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/27/coronavirus-cases-us-trump-politics-masks

    A disaster is unfolding in Montgomery, Alabama, where Martin Luther King preached and where Rosa Parks was arrested for refusing to give up her seat on the bus. Hospitals are running short of drugs to treat Covid-19, intensive care units are close to capacity, and ventilators are running short.

    Between 85% and 90% of the very sick and dying are African American.

    Amid this gathering storm, the city council met to decide whether to require people to wear masks, a basic protection the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) strongly recommends. Doctors lined up to plead their case.

    “This is beyond an epidemic in this area,” said the pulmonologist Bill Saliski. “Our units are full of critically ill covid patients. We have to slow this down.”

    His colleague, Nina Nelson-Garrett, described watching undertakers carrying out corpses, 30 minutes apart.

    “Something as simple as a mask can save someone’s life,” she said.

    Dr Kim McGlothan recounted how she was frequently stopped by white people asking, “Is the media sensationalizing this, is it really as bad as they are making out?”

    McGlothan told the council: “People don’t believe the hype. Until you mandate masks, we won’t be able to stop this – we just won’t.”

    Then a black resident stood up. Six of his relatives had died from Covid-19. His brother was on a ventilator. “This is not about masks,” he said. “The question on the table is, ‘Do black lives matter?’ I lost six of my family to Covid. How would it feel if it was your family?”

    The council debated for two hours. White council members asked if young children could get carbon monoxide poisoning from masks – no, the doctors firmly told them – and spoke portentously about individual rights.

    “At the end of the day,” said councilman Brantley Lyons, “if a pandemic comes through, we do not throw our constitutional rights out the window.”

    When the vote was called, it divided on largely racial lines. Black members voted for masks, in order to prevent more families losing six loved ones. White members voted against masks, to preserve the fundamental right not to attach a cloth to your face.

    In a 4-4 tie, the ordinance failed. As he left the chamber, Dr Saliski uttered just one word: “Unbelievable.”

    Unbelievable accurately describes America today. The country is on the brink of a huge surge of Covid-19, as the virus tears through the heartlands while the president praises himself for having done “a great job” and blithely predicts the scourge will “fade away”.

    Ask Alabama whether the virus is fading away. Or Arizona, Florida, South Carolina or Texas. The disease is venting its fury on these states, which all reopened their economies – with Donald Trump’s avid blessing – before the contagion was contained.

    “Opening while cases are increasing is like leaning into a left hook,” said Tom Frieden, a former CDC director. “You are basically asking to get hit – and that’s what these states did.”

    Alabama is enduring a pummeling. It has recorded 32,000 cases and its curve is on a steep upward path.

    The Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, who ushered in one of the earliest and most aggressive reopenings, insisted a few days ago that his state “remains wide-open for business”. Yet he has been unable to ignore reality: that the virus has spread its lethal tentacles to every corner of the state overwhelming hospitals to the point that Houston medical centers are running out of ICU beds. Now, once again, Texas’ bars are closing. One town, near Houston, has even brought in a curfew.

    The Lone Star state recorded 6,584 cases on Wednesday alone – a heart-sinking figure that makes its curve look almost vertical.

    Florida’s malaise would be wryly amusing were so many lives not at stake. On 20 May the conservative magazine the National Review ran the gloating headline: “Where Does Ron DeSantis Go to Get His Apology?” The article scolded liberal critics of the Republican governor’s lax approach to coronavirus – he famously allowed beaches to remain open in spring break and has permitted shops and restaurants to get back to business – for having got it wrong: there was no spike in Florida.

    On 20 May, Florida’s daily infection load stood at 527 new cases. Five weeks later, it reported a record 8,942 on Friday and broke the record again on Saturday with 9,585.

    ‘It’s getting worse, not better’

    Though states such as Florida and Texas are bearing the brunt of the beating, this is not a catastrophe that can be dismissed as the problem of just a few places. Across the nation, at terrifying speed, a similar picture is revealing itself.

    Every important data point, including positivity rates and hospitalizations, is surging across most states. A map produced by a team of epidemiologists and health experts, Covid Act Now, shows only four states, all in the north-east, including New York, which used to be at the center of the pandemic but has wrestled it under control, as being on track to contain the disease. Twenty-one states are at risk or facing active or imminent outbreaks.

    It is troubling enough that the US now has 2.4m confirmed cases – double the number of the next highest country in the world, Brazil, and almost certainly a huge underestimate. The death toll has passed 125,000, with another 20,000 at least expected this month.

    The death rate is still trending downwards – one bit of positive news in this sorry picture. But deaths lag behind confirmed cases by a month, and that spells trouble ahead.

    One crumb of comfort had been that for almost three months the daily rate of new infections held steady at around 20,000 cases a day. Then, two weeks ago, the monster began to stir.

    The tally of new cases ticked upwards, and on Thursday it reached a stomach-churning 40,000 – the worst day on record since the pandemic began.

    “It’s getting worse, not better,” said Frieden, who now heads the global health initiative Resolve to Save Lives. “The contrast with other countries is striking. South Korea had 30 cases a day and they flipped out. The US now has 30,000 cases a day and there are people shrugging and saying ‘It’s no big deal’.”

    Trump is shrugger-in-chief. When the president lured thousands of non-mask wearing supporters to a viral incubation party – he called it a rally – in Tulsa, Oklahoma, last Saturday, he told them that in his view testing for coronavirus was a “double-edged sword… When you do testing you are going to find more cases. So I told my people, slow the testing down.”

    Despite White House efforts to pass the comment off as a joke, it encapsulates the Trump administration’s approach towards this devastating crisis. Early on, Trump failed to marshal the full weight of the most powerful government on Earth against the virus. He lost six critical weeks.

    Even today, the 500,000 tests being carried out each day falls woefully short of the scale needed. Contact tracing – another crucial tool – is patchy at best, with signs that a growing number of Americans are unwilling to cooperate.

    Leading public health experts have watched aghast as Trump has done exactly what he said he would: put a dampener on data-driven efforts that could, over the course of the pandemic, potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives.

    “Everybody agrees we need a lot more testing,” said Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute. “But when the conversation turns to, ‘Why can’t we ramp up the testing?’ there’s always the sense that the White House is not going to be happy to do what’s necessary. There’s real pushback against scientific leaders calling for action.”

    Evidence for such a pushback isn’t hard to find. There’s this week’s announcement that the Trump administration will soon end federal funding for 13 testing sites – seven in ravaged Texas.

    Then there’s the ghostlike absence of the CDC, one of the world’s leading public health agencies, which has fallen mute at the moment it is most needed. Frieden has become so frustrated by the booming silence of the institution he led for almost eight years, until Trump entered the White House, he has taken to publicising CDC research himself, in a desperate attempt to fill the void.

    When the Guardian put it to him that this was an extraordinary state of affairs, Frieden replied: “It feels a bit like North Korea, doesn’t it?”

    The most worrying aspect of the tone being set by Trump is that it is starting to shift the mindset of ordinary Americans. Everywhere you look there are anecdotal signs of people falling in line with the president – shrugging and saying it’s no big deal.

    That trend is very visible in Montgomery. In the end, the town’s African American mayor, Steven Reed, overruled the city council’s white members and introduced mandatory mask-wearing by executive fiat.

    But it will be an uphill battle persuading white townsfolk to abide by the ordinance. Brad Harper, a reporter with the Montgomery Advertiser, says he is struck whenever he goes into a Target or Walmart that almost all white shoppers go unmasked while black shoppers have their faces covered.

    On social media, people rant about masks as “muzzles” and “badges of submission”. “People get really angry about it, resisting even their doctors asking them to wear it,” Harper said. “They don’t see a protective device, as something that can save the people around you, they see it as an instrument of control.”

    All across the country, similar acts of personal rebellion are playing out. Residents of Palm Beach, Florida, erupted in anger against a mandatory mask order, calling it the “devil’s law” and an affront to “God’s breathing system”.

    Further up the Florida coast, in Jacksonville Beach, 16 friends decided to have a night out at an Irish pub – the entire group came down with the virus, as well as seven bar workers. A surprise birthday party in Texas led to 18 members of one family being infected.

    Crowds of unmasked people have been gathering in Las Vegas’s reopened casinos, and Covid-19 cases have soared. In Arizona, the Republican sheriff of Pinal county vowed not to enforce the lockdown on grounds of individual liberty, and promptly contracted the disease himself. Not to mention Cruisin’ Chubbys Gentleman’s Club, a strip club in Wisconsin that had its very own outbreak.

    ‘If you divide people, you allow divide and conquer’

    Everywhere you look there are indications America’s social contract – the idea that if we stand united we can defeat this terrible affliction – is breaking down.

    “If you divide people, you allow divide and conquer,” Frieden said. “This is us against them, humans against microbes. The more we are divided, the more microbes will conquer.”

    Wändi Bruine de Bruin, provost professor of public policy, psychology and behavioral science at the University of Southern California, has been tracking the changing public response since March. Through a rolling survey of 7,000 adults, she has found that most Americans – about 71% – still say they avoid public spaces and crowds. But the proportion is falling, fast, down from 92% in April.

    She puts the slide down to unclear messaging. “Messages and policies are no longer consistent. Some businesses are allowed to open, others not, and it’s not clear why. That leads to confusion, and anger. Some people start to think it’s not fair, others start to assume it’s not that important.”

    Jha said it was vital to acknowledge that most Americans, including many Republicans, have so far been compliant with stay-at-home orders. But he frets that a mindset is taking hold that the virus is somebody else’s problem.

    “I worry that it will take large numbers of people getting very sick, the hospitals filling up, for people to realise this is a pandemic, not a disease outbreak in New York or New Orleans. I hope it doesn’t come to that. I worry that it will.”

    The Guardian asked whether he was concerned about possible public resistance to renewed lockdown orders, should some states be forced back into extreme measures in the face of a Covid-19 explosion.

    “I do fear that,” he said. “For months there has been a concerted effort by a small minority to argue that this is overblown or a hoax. It will be difficult for Republican leaders to get people to change their views on this.”

    Jha checked himself, then added: “It’s a tiny minority. Unfortunately, it includes the president of the United States.”

    The good news is that scientists are very clear about what needs to be done. Frieden calls it the three Ws – wear a mask, wash your hands, watch your distance – combined with aggressive testing, contact tracing and isolation of the sick.

    If such measures can be introduced concertedly and quickly, both at federal and state level, public health experts are confident that all is not lost. The contagion could be contained and the economy slowly and relatively safely rebooted.

    But time is running out for America.

    “This is a long war and we are losing a lot of battles right now, because we are not fighting them,” Frieden said. “We are going to be paying for the mistakes we make today for months, or even years, to come.”

    June 28, 2020 at 10:41 am #117268

    In reply to: stories about racism & what it is

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Many of us know about Matt Waldman. Football guy, draft analyst.

    Here in a series of tweets, he feels compelled to address the big issues we’re seeing right now. It’s worth a read IMO. He talks about being the husband of a black woman and father of a black child in today’s USA.

    Matt Waldman@MattWaldman
    Seeing some of my colleagues talk about what it’s like being black in America–
    @DianteLee_ comes to mind prominently this afternoon, I’d like to offer a different perspective.

    Being white, growing up in the north and south, and becoming part of a black family. What you learn.

    The first thing you learn is that no matter how open-minded, loving, and book-educated you are, you are not ready for what you’ll experience once you become emotionally invested in the lives of people who are black.

    Seeing, experiencing, and feeling it on a visceral level.

    You will at first do what black people do as they’re growing up and first experiencing it: Wondering if what you experienced happened as you perceived it and trying to rationalize the motivations as not racist. Revisiting multiple times to make sure you’re not crazy.

    Black people revisit, replay, and analyze things that happen–even after experiencing events like it for decades.

    You learn there’s a constant state of questioning, analyzing, explaining (while angry). It’s stressful and wears you out.

    You learn why a lifetime of having to be on guard for the potential of significant danger to well-being physically, financially, and emotionally is a drain on mental, physical, and financial health–and considering how doctors have been mistrained (even recently)…

    about the pain tolerance, dosages, and overall untrue differences with black patients, it’s not surprising there’s a distrust of U.S. healthcare.

    BTW-I learned with one of my roommates in 1990 in Miami that if I didn’t barge past the ER front desk in an empty waiting room,

    my roommate, who waited 30 minutes with a medical emergency (I rushed him there) and was hyperventilating and sweating bullets was about two minutes from a stroke if I didn’t grab an annoyed doctor (once he saw my roommate–five folks were working on him immediately)

    Even w/that story, at 20 yrs old, having influential teachers talk to me about their life in America, reading Malcolm X, learning history beyond my high school curriculum, I still wanted to rationalize what my roommate went through.

    The truth: Being dangerously ill while black

    I learned how to have “the talks” with my kids about retail stores, police, school, and the parents of their white friends. Things I never had to consider growing up. Sometimes those talks happened after the fact with incidents that came earlier than I hoped to God would.

    Teacher putting my talkative kid in a desk and putting a tape perimeter around her to tell other kids not to interact with her and wanted her tested for a learning disability–when all she did was finish her assignments early (and correctly and consistently) and was bored.

    Cashier being rude to my girlfriend because the clerk shorted $20 at the grocery. The manager being ruder when summoned. Neither manager nor cashier offering the slightest apology after counting drawer and it being exactly $20 over.

    Countless times followed by retail clerks or front store security behaving brusquely until they realized I was with them and then behaving 180 degrees different. Cops thinking the way to behave with my executive wife whose family all earned college degrees was to speak ebonics

    Wife pulled over for alleged “rolling stops”, going through yellow lights, or going 5mph over the speed limit & questioned about the veracity of her ownership of the car because of the cognitive dissonance of her dark skin & German last name that’s on her license and insurance.

    Cops questioning that she owns the car even after they see the name match with the IDs. Cops following her home after everything checks out but they want to make sure that nice car is hers–the “don’t-fuck-with-me,” car that I would never have to drive for people at work to see

    that she’s not some charity case they hired but a star employee. Not to mention that her dad, sister, and brother were Baltimore PD. And they know police training has been cut well short of optimal in the past 15-20 years.

    My wife having to deal with “Cooper-like” women (not new) using tears as a weapon when they become threatened about my wife’s positive work relationships w/males at the job. And those males taking the bait because they don’t expect white women to be mature one but need rescuing.

    Ex-girlfriend and I once applied for same job. She had more desirable industry experience, called her first, talked salary, & scheduled interview. She arrived in a stunning Chanel suit–very interview appropriate. Hiring manager took one look at her, said job was filled, offered

    entry-level gig. Then manager called me, I went through three interviews–one was clearly a “does the owner give the stamp of approval that I’m a white male,” interview and was offered the job (I graphically told them what they could do with the offer).

    The dread I felt when my wife decided to take a drive in her new car and forgot to tell me she was doing so after she ran an errand at night and I thought she’d be home in 20 minutes. Me driving around the county looking for her because I hoped she wasn’t pulled over.

    My wife panicking and wanting to leave a concert when my daughter, a Marine, got pulled over for a traffic stop at night in a county that 15 years ago had signs that essentially told black people to leave at night.

    I notice how some people who are uncomfortable around blacks get tense and shaky and I have to be 1-2 steps ahead and wonder if this is the day I’m going to jail for my wife. I have learned how to take the temperature of a room in a way I never had to before.

    I notice black people taking the temperature of my behavior. Am I at ease and self-aware or am I going to be that guy trying to act black? Am I that guy who will treat my wife as some fetishized trophy? Am I the well-meaning but ignorant liberal social justice warrior 24/7?

    All of this is done out of protection and understandably so. Some have seen and experienced too much to even want to try with me. And I get that. Hate it’s that way, but I get it and know I can’t change that in one interaction–and in some cases, ever.

    What did I learn?

    Being outwardly and vocally hateful was wrong and made your family look bad but being exclusionary for ignorant reasons, telling jokes, reinforcing racism behind the scenes was intentionally and unintentionally encouraged.

    It’s the source of gaslighting.

    That racism was often tolerated by younger adults not to upset their older parents or authority figures in society with the purse strings.

    That it was ok to be friendly but not close to black people.

    That black entertainers were exceptional and not the norm. Ring a bell?

    That the norm was more like what I saw on the news. What did I see on the news? Murders, robbers, rioters in Miami reacting to police murder/brutality.

    I knew this wasn’t true. Didn’t change the emotional reactions I had from these being internalized. Sound familiar?

    Like many, these lessons created an ingrained fear. Fear of saying the wrong thing. Fear of being labeled a racist more than tacitly supporting racism. Fear of where to even begin with gaining real knowledge. It’s why so many never even begin.

    Fact is, 5 yrs ago the reactions to this behavior was met with a lot more resistance. Progress is sadly slow but it’s there. Feeling that helplessness is a part of honest recognition.

    Mostly, I’ve learned that I had to unlearn subtle and unintentional behaviors that I was taught that perpetuated systemic racism. Things family and authority taught. That it took time, effort, humility, and painful self-reflection. I’m still learning. We’re all still learning.

    And, it’s exhausting to explain as often as it needs to be explained to give someone uninitiated a clear picture. A clear picture you may not see immediately or in its totality. I’m not telling you how to be, just sharing how I’ve been. Hope it helps.

    June 24, 2020 at 10:44 pm #117067

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Cases Near Record Level as Virus Surges in South and West
    New cases in the U.S. have reached their highest daily level since April.
    link https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/24/world/coronavirus-updates.html

    ==

    New coronavirus cases in the U.S. soar to highest single-day total
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/24/coronavirus-live-updates-us/

    ==

    New York imposes quarantine on nine US states
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53167780

    New York, New Jersey and Connecticut have asked people travelling from states where virus cases are rising to go into self-isolation for 14 days.

    ==

    ‘The explosion has to slow down’: Texas hospitals on edge as coronavirus cases surge
    “It’s not like I can triple my capacity overnight because we have a lot of other patients,” said a hospital administrator in Houston.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/explosion-has-slow-down-texas-hospitals-edge-coronavirus-cases-surge-n1232053

    June 24, 2020 at 12:02 pm #117050

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    How Exactly Do You Catch Covid-19? There Is a Growing Consensus
    Surface contamination and fleeting encounters are less of a worry than close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-exactly-do-you-catch-covid-19-there-is-a-growing-consensus-11592317650?fbclid=IwAR0fXjVEGJNUrd_DTKV2CTre_iIIihxOMFX2-fWAPkeE0EB6nX2m0My5h0U

    Six months into the coronavirus crisis, there’s a growing consensus about a central question: How do people become infected?

    It’s not common to contract Covid-19 from a contaminated surface, scientists say. And fleeting encounters with people outdoors are unlikely to spread the coronavirus.

    Instead, the major culprit is close-up, person-to-person interactions for extended periods. Crowded events, poorly ventilated areas and places where people are talking loudly—or singing, in one famous case—maximize the risk.

    These emerging findings are helping businesses and governments devise reopening strategies to protect public health while getting economies going again. That includes tactics like installing plexiglass barriers, requiring people to wear masks in stores and other venues, using good ventilation systems and keeping windows open when possible.

    Two recent large studies showed that wide-scale lockdowns—stay-at-home orders, bans on large gatherings and business closures—prevented millions of infections and deaths around the world. Now, with more knowledge in hand, cities and states can deploy targeted interventions to keep the virus from taking off again, scientists and public-health experts said.

    That means better protections for nursing-home residents and multigenerational families living in crowded conditions, they said. It also means stressing physical distancing and masks, and reducing the number of gatherings in enclosed spaces.

    “We should not be thinking of a lockdown, but of ways to increase physical distance,” said Tom Frieden, chief executive of Resolve to Save Lives, a nonprofit public-health initiative. “This can include allowing outside activities, allowing walking or cycling to an office with people all physically distant, curbside pickup from stores, and other innovative methods that can facilitate resumption of economic activity without a rekindling of the outbreak.”

    The group’s reopening recommendations include widespread testing, contact tracing and isolation of people who are infected or exposed.

    A Recipe for Infection
    Getting the Covid-19 virus involves three steps.

    1 Coughing, talking and breathing creates virus-carrying droplets of various sizes.

    2 Enough virus has to make itself over to you or build up around you over time to trigger an infection.

    3 The virus has to make its way into your respiratory tract and use the ACE-2 receptors there to enter cells and replicate.

    One important factor in transmission is that seemingly benign activities like speaking and breathing produce respiratory bits of varying sizes that can disperse along air currents and potentially infect people nearby.

    Health agencies have so far identified respiratory-droplet contact as the major mode of Covid-19 transmission. These large fluid droplets can transfer virus from one person to another if they land on the eyes, nose or mouth. But they tend to fall to the ground or on other surfaces pretty quickly.

    Some researchers say the new coronavirus can also be transmitted through aerosols, or minuscule droplets that float in the air longer than large droplets. These aerosols can be directly inhaled.

    That’s what may have happened at a restaurant in Guangzhou, China, where an infected diner who was not yet ill transmitted the virus to five others sitting at adjacent tables. Ventilation in the space was poor, with exhaust fans turned off, according to one study looking at conditions in the restaurant.

    Aerosolized virus from the patient’s breathing or speaking could have built up in the air over time and strong airflow from an air-conditioning unit on the wall may have helped recirculate the particles in the air, according to authors of the study, which hasn’t yet been peer-reviewed.

    Sufficient ventilation in the places people visit and work is very important, said Yuguo Li, one of the authors and an engineering professor at the University of Hong Kong. Proper ventilation—such as forcing air toward the ceiling and pumping it outside, or bringing fresh air into a room—dilutes the amount of virus in a space, lowering the risk of infection.

    Another factor is prolonged exposure. That’s generally defined as 15 minutes or more of unprotected contact with someone less than 6 feet away, said John Brooks, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s chief medical officer for the Covid-19 response. But that is only a rule of thumb, he cautioned. It could take much less time with a sneeze in the face or other intimate contact where a lot of respiratory droplets are emitted, he said.

    Superspreaders

    At a March 10 church choir practice in Washington state, 87% of attendees were infected, said Lea Hamner, an epidemiologist with the Skagit County public-health department and lead author of a study on an investigation that warned about the potential for “superspreader” events, in which one or a small number of people infect many others.

    Members of the choir changed places four times during the 2½-hour practice, were tightly packed in a confined space and were mostly older and therefore more vulnerable to illness, she said. All told, 53 of 61 attendees at the practice were infected, including at least one person who had symptoms. Two died.

    Several factors conspired, Ms. Hamner said. When singing, people can emit many large and small respiratory particles. Singers also breathe deeply, increasing the chance they will inhale infectious particles.

    Similar transmission dynamics could be at play in other settings where heavy breathing and loud talking are common over extended periods, like gyms, musical or theater performances, conferences, weddings and birthday parties. Of 61 clusters of cases in Japan between Jan. 15 and April 4, many involved heavy breathing in close proximity, such as karaoke parties, cheering at clubs, talking in bars and exercising in gyms, according to a recent study in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.

    The so-called attack rate—the percentage of people who were infected in a specific place or time—can be very high in crowded events, homes and other spaces where lots of people are in close, prolonged contact.

    An estimated 10% of people with Covid-19 are responsible for about 80% of transmissions, according to a study published recently in Wellcome Open Research. Some people with the virus may have a higher viral load, or produce more droplets when they breathe or speak, or be in a confined space with many people and bad ventilation when they’re at their most infectious point in their illness, said Jamie Lloyd-Smith, a University of California, Los Angeles professor who studies the ecology of infectious diseases.

    But overall, “the risk of a given infected person transmitting to people is pretty low,” said Scott Dowell, a deputy director overseeing the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’s Covid-19 response. “For every superspreading event you have a lot of times when nobody gets infected.”

    The attack rate for Covid-19 in households ranges between 4.6% and 19.3%, according to several studies. It was higher for spouses, at 27.8%, than for other household members, at 17.3%, in one study in China.

    Rosanna Diaz lives in a three-bedroom apartment in New York City with five other family members. The 37-year-old stay-at-home mother was hospitalized with a stroke on April 18 that her doctors attributed to Covid-19, and was still coughing when she went home two days later.

    She pushed to get home quickly, she said, because her 4-year-old son has autism and needed her. She kept her distance from family members, covered her mouth when coughing and washed her hands frequently. No one else in the apartment has fallen ill, she said. “Nobody went near me when I was sick,” she said.

    Being outside is generally safer, experts say, because viral particles dilute more quickly. But small and large droplets pose a risk even outdoors, when people are in close, prolonged contact, said Linsey Marr, a Virginia Tech environmental engineering professor who studies airborne transmission of viruses.

    No one knows for sure how much virus it takes for someone to become infected, but recent studies offer some clues. In one small study published recently in the journal Nature, researchers were unable to culture live coronavirus if a patient’s throat swab or milliliter of sputum contained less than one million copies of viral RNA.

    Air travel is full of opportunities for coronavirus transmission. Touchless check-in, plexiglass shields, temperature checks, back-to-front boarding and planes with empty middle seats are all now part of the flying experience, and the future may bring even more changes. Illustration: Alex Kuzoian
    “Based on our experiment, I would assume that something above that number would be required for infectivity,” said Clemens Wendtner, one of the study’s lead authors and head of the department of infectious diseases and tropical medicine at München Klinik Schwabing, a teaching hospital at the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich.

    He and his colleagues found samples from contagious patients with virus levels up to 1,000 times that, which could help explain why the virus is so infectious in the right conditions: It may take much lower levels of virus than what’s found in a sick patient to infect someone else.

    Changing policies

    Based on this emerging picture of contagion, some policies are changing. The standard procedure for someone who tests positive is to quarantine at home. Some cities are providing free temporary housing and social services where people who are infected can stay on a voluntary basis, to avoid transmitting the virus to family members.

    The CDC recently urged Americans to keep wearing masks and maintaining a distance from others as states reopen. “The more closely you interact with others, the longer the interaction lasts, the greater the number of people involved in the interaction, the higher the risk of Covid-19 spread,” said Jay Butler, the CDC’s Covid-19 response incident manager.

    If the number of Covid-19 cases starts to rise dramatically as states reopen, “more extensive mitigation efforts such as what were implemented back in March may be needed again,” a decision that would be made locally, he said.

    CDC guidelines for employers whose workers are returning include requiring masks, limiting use of public transit and elevators to reduce exposure, and prohibiting hugs, handshakes and fist-bumps. The agency also suggested replacing communal snacks, water coolers and coffee pots with prepacked, single-serve items, and erecting plastic partitions between desks closer than 6 feet apart.

    Current CDC workplace guidelines don’t talk about distribution of aerosols, or small particles, in a room, said Lisa Brosseau, a respiratory-protection consultant for the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.

    “Aerosol transmission is a scary thing,” she said. “That’s an exposure that’s hard to manage and it’s invisible.” Ensuring infected individuals stay home is important, she said, but that can be difficult due to testing constraints. So additional protocols to interrupt spread, like social distancing in workspaces and providing N95 respirators or other personal protective equipment, might be necessary as well, she said.

    Some scientists say while aerosol transmission does occur, it doesn’t explain most infections. In addition, the virus doesn’t appear to spread widely through the air.

    “If this were transmitted mainly like measles or tuberculosis, where infectious virus lingered in the airspace for a long time, or spread across large airspaces or through air-handling systems, I think you would be seeing a lot more people infected,” said the CDC’s Dr. Brooks.

    Sampling the air in high-traffic areas regularly could help employers figure out who needs to get tested, said Donald Milton, professor of environmental and occupational health at the University of Maryland School of Public Health.

    “Let’s say you detect the virus during lunchtime on Monday in a dining hall,” he said. “You could then reach out to people who were there during that time telling them that they need to get tested.”

    Erin Bromage, a University of Massachusetts Dartmouth associate professor of biology, has been fielding questions from businesses, court systems and even therapists after a blog post he wrote titled “The Risks—Know Them—Avoid Them” went viral.

    Courts are trying to figure out how to reconvene safely given that juries normally sit close together, with attorneys speaking to them up close, Dr. Bromage said. Therapists want to be able to hold in-person counseling sessions again. And businesses are trying to figure out what types of cleaning and disease-prevention methods in which to invest most heavily.

    He advises that while wiping down surfaces and putting in hand-sanitizer stations in workplaces is good, the bigger risks are close-range face-to-face interactions, and having lots of people in an enclosed space for long periods. High-touch surfaces like doorknobs are a risk, but the virus degrades quickly so other surfaces like cardboard boxes are less worrisome, he said. “Surfaces and cleaning are important, but we shouldn’t be spending half of our budget on it when they may be having only a smaller effect,” he said.

    Drugmaker Eli Lilly & Co. has a medical advisory panel that’s reading the latest literature on viral transmission, which it is using to develop recommendations for bringing back the company’s own workers safely.

    To go into production facilities, some of which are in operation now, scientists must don multiple layers of personal protective equipment, including gloves, masks, goggles and coveralls. That’s not abnormal for drug-development settings, said Lilly Chief Scientific Officer Daniel Skovronsky. “The air is extensively filtered. There’s lots of protection,” he said.

    The places he worries about are the break rooms, locker rooms and security checkpoints, where people interact. Those are spaces where the company has instituted social-distancing measures by staggering the times they are open and how many people can be there at once. Only a few cafeterias are open, and those that are have socially distanced seating. In bathrooms, only half the stalls are available to cut down on the number of people.

    “We’ll never be more open than state guidelines,” Dr. Skovronsky said, but “we’re often finding ourselves being more restrictive because we’re following the numbers.”

    June 13, 2020 at 9:15 am #116466

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
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    Cases, Hospitalization Rates Climb In Previous Cold Spots In Post-Memorial Day Surge
    link https://khn.org/morning-breakout/cases-hospitalization-rates-climb-in-previous-cold-spots-in-post-memorial-day-surge/
    Public health experts are alarmed by several indicators such as hospitalization rates. Some states are nearing their ICU bed capacity, a warning sign from the early days of the pandemic. This week, confirmed cases in the U.S. climbed past 2 million and over 113,000 Americans have died.

    —

    The Associated Press: Alarming Rise In Virus Cases As States Roll Back Lockdowns
    https://apnews.com/feb4c26d9364497cf82ee7c0c1b1b3d5
    States are rolling back lockdowns, but the coronavirus isn’t done with the U.S. Cases are rising in nearly half the states, according to an Associated Press analysis, a worrying trend that could intensify as people return to work and venture out during the summer. In Arizona, hospitals have been told to prepare for the worst. Texas has more hospitalized COVID-19 patients than at any time before. (Stobbe, 6/11)

    —

    The Wall Street Journal: Covid-19 Hospitalizations Surge In Some States
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-hospitalizations-surge-in-some-states-11591912459
    The post-Memorial Day outbreaks in states come roughly a month after stay-at-home orders were lifted. Experts urged people to continue to take the virus seriously and not take increased freedom as permission to stop wearing masks or resume gathering in large groups. Dr. Marc Boom, chief executive officer of the Houston Methodist hospital network, said he is concerned by the “array of indicators, all of which are starting to flash at us,” including increased cases, a rise in hospitalizations and a boost in the percentage of positive test results. (Collin and Findell, 6/11)

    June 12, 2020 at 2:13 pm #116434

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    The coronavirus pandemic isn’t ending — it’s surging

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/06/11/coronavirus-pandemic-isnt-ending-its-surging/?fbclid=IwAR32qLZ4pR2z6D5hVoTwi58eshXJNugSBCKNCz7n7L4Tb4O4g3yQe5cPF4A&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

    As restrictions are lifted around the world, the sense of urgency surrounding the novel coronavirus pandemic has weakened. Hundreds of millions of students have returned to school; restaurants, bars and other businesses are slowly reopening in many countries. In parts of Europe, vaccine researchers worry that they will not have enough sick people for testing.

    But this historic pandemic is not ending. It is surging. There were 136,000 new infections reported on Sunday, the highest single-day increase since the start of the pandemic. There are more than 7 million confirmed cases so far. The number of deaths is nearing half a million, with little sign of tapering off, and global health experts are continuing to sound the alarm.

    “By no means is this over,” Mike Ryan, the World Health Organization’s executive director, said Wednesday. “If we look at the numbers over the last number of weeks, this pandemic is still evolving. It is still growing in many parts of the world.”

    Latin America has emerged as a hot spot, currently accounting for almost half of global deaths by the Financial Times’ tally. The problem is particularly acute in Brazil, where the central government has maintained a hands-off attitude to the outbreak even as cases surged to almost 750,000, second only to the United States, but it has also hit countries, such as Peru, that took early steps against the virus.

    Cases have surged in South Asia. WHO officials urged Pakistan to lock down after officials declared a record number of new cases in the past 24 hours. India is facing a new wave of infection; a top official in Delhi on Wednesday said that cases were expected to soar above 500,000 by the end of next month. Indonesia had its biggest daily increase in coronavirus cases for a second consecutive day on Wednesday, with 1,241 new infections.

    Across sub-Saharan Africa, there are now more than 200,000 cases: There is widespread speculation that Pierre Nkurunziza, Burundi’s president, who died on Tuesday, was the first world leader to die of covid-19, though Burundian officials have said the cause of death was cardiac arrest.

    The scale of the coronavirus has made it hard to take in. “In the period of four months, it has devastated the world,” Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN on Tuesday. “And it isn’t over yet.”

    Some nations that were devastated early in the pandemic look to be losing ground in their recovery. In Iran and the United States, two countries divided by geopolitical enmity, experts are united by fresh fears of a second wave; new cases in Iran have surged to record highs weeks after the country eased its lockdown.

    Some Iranian officials have blamed increased testing, which in itself raises questions about the first outbreak’s extent. “We don’t know if it will be a second wave, a second peak or a continuing first wave in some countries,” WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan told CNBC.

    U.S. states are seeing an increasing number of patients since Memorial Day weekend, when many people socialized in groups in parts of the country, while there are new concerns that the anti-racism protests sparked by the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis could add to a nationwide surge.

    In the United States and elsewhere, the protests about injustice are partly fueled by the racial disparities seen in the outbreak. Protesters have attempted to maintain social distance and use masks and hand sanitizer — but that has not always proved possible.

    Public health experts have expressed understanding about the protests. “It doesn’t help to say police violence doesn’t matter,” Gregg Gonsalves, a professor of epidemiology at Yale, told New York Magazine. “The health disparities that have killed tens of thousands of people over a half a century don’t matter. We are saying we understand it matters; they’re public-health issues too.”

    But almost all experts acknowledge that mass protests are a risk — just as the reopening of the economy seen in many nations around the world, including the United States, carries risks. “The facts suggest that the U.S. is not going to beat the coronavirus,” the Atlantic’s Alexis Madrigal and Robinson Meyer write. “Collectively, we slowly seem to be giving up.”

    That demoralized attitude is reflected at the top of American politics: It has been more than a month since the Trump administration held a daily coronavirus task force briefing.

    What will it look like to finally beat the virus? We can see some glimpses of it, if we look hard enough: New Zealand declared itself coronavirus-free this week; Taiwan is close to that milestone too. Some smaller nations, like the Pacific island of Samoa, have avoided getting a single confirmed case.

    But until the pandemic is pushed back globally, these victories are fragile. We’ve seen this year how easily the virus can travel to a country and, once inside, spread furiously. Even for countries without the virus, the economic pain is still there.

    The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development on Wednesday predicted that there would probably be a drop of 6 percent in global economic productivity this year, among the worst declines in a century. If there is a second wave, the drop would be worse — 7.6 percent — the organization said, with unemployment at 10 percent in developed countries in 2020 and little improvement next year.

    Even in newly reopened New Zealand, that impact is evident. Officials in Auckland said this week that foot traffic and spending in the central business district were only 40 percent of what they had been before the virus. “When you’ve normally got an inner-city workforce in excess of 138,000 people, coupled with international tourists, that’s a major change in customers,” one told the New Zealand Herald.

    There are some reasons to be hopeful. A study by Britain’s Cambridge and Greenwich universities released Wednesday suggested that widespread mask wearing could help prevent a second wave as damaging as the first. Vaccine trials are beginning and many hope that the ambitious, accelerated development timetables will produce results as soon as the end of the year.

    But there is still much we don’t know and little reason to feel triumphant right now. “This microscopic virus has humbled all of us,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Wednesday.

    May 30, 2020 at 2:53 am #115454

    In reply to: Police v. Demonstrators Protesting Killing of George Floyd

    Avatar photozn
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    Many of us know about Matt Waldman. Football guy, draft analyst.

    Here in a series of tweets, he feels compelled to address the big issues we’re seeing right now. It’s worth a read IMO. He talks about being the husband of a black woman and father of a black child in today’s USA.

    Matt Waldman@MattWaldman
    Seeing some of my colleagues talk about what it’s like being black in America–
    @DianteLee_ comes to mind prominently this afternoon, I’d like to offer a different perspective.

    Being white, growing up in the north and south, and becoming part of a black family. What you learn.

    The first thing you learn is that no matter how open-minded, loving, and book-educated you are, you are not ready for what you’ll experience once you become emotionally invested in the lives of people who are black.

    Seeing, experiencing, and feeling it on a visceral level.

    You will at first do what black people do as they’re growing up and first experiencing it: Wondering if what you experienced happened as you perceived it and trying to rationalize the motivations as not racist. Revisiting multiple times to make sure you’re not crazy.

    Black people revisit, replay, and analyze things that happen–even after experiencing events like it for decades.

    You learn there’s a constant state of questioning, analyzing, explaining (while angry). It’s stressful and wears you out.

    You learn why a lifetime of having to be on guard for the potential of significant danger to well-being physically, financially, and emotionally is a drain on mental, physical, and financial health–and considering how doctors have been mistrained (even recently)…

    about the pain tolerance, dosages, and overall untrue differences with black patients, it’s not surprising there’s a distrust of U.S. healthcare.

    BTW-I learned with one of my roommates in 1990 in Miami that if I didn’t barge past the ER front desk in an empty waiting room,

    my roommate, who waited 30 minutes with a medical emergency (I rushed him there) and was hyperventilating and sweating bullets was about two minutes from a stroke if I didn’t grab an annoyed doctor (once he saw my roommate–five folks were working on him immediately)

    Even w/that story, at 20 yrs old, having influential teachers talk to me about their life in America, reading Malcolm X, learning history beyond my high school curriculum, I still wanted to rationalize what my roommate went through.

    The truth: Being dangerously ill while black

    I learned how to have “the talks” with my kids about retail stores, police, school, and the parents of their white friends. Things I never had to consider growing up. Sometimes those talks happened after the fact with incidents that came earlier than I hoped to God would.

    Teacher putting my talkative kid in a desk and putting a tape perimeter around her to tell other kids not to interact with her and wanted her tested for a learning disability–when all she did was finish her assignments early (and correctly and consistently) and was bored.

    Cashier being rude to my girlfriend because the clerk shorted $20 at the grocery. The manager being ruder when summoned. Neither manager nor cashier offering the slightest apology after counting drawer and it being exactly $20 over.

    Countless times followed by retail clerks or front store security behaving brusquely until they realized I was with them and then behaving 180 degrees different. Cops thinking the way to behave with my executive wife whose family all earned college degrees was to speak ebonics

    Wife pulled over for alleged “rolling stops”, going through yellow lights, or going 5mph over the speed limit & questioned about the veracity of her ownership of the car because of the cognitive dissonance of her dark skin & German last name that’s on her license and insurance.

    Cops questioning that she owns the car even after they see the name match with the IDs. Cops following her home after everything checks out but they want to make sure that nice car is hers–the “don’t-fuck-with-me,” car that I would never have to drive for people at work to see

    that she’s not some charity case they hired but a star employee. Not to mention that her dad, sister, and brother were Baltimore PD. And they know police training has been cut well short of optimal in the past 15-20 years.

    My wife having to deal with “Cooper-like” women (not new) using tears as a weapon when they become threatened about my wife’s positive work relationships w/males at the job. And those males taking the bait because they don’t expect white women to be mature one but need rescuing.

    Ex-girlfriend and I once applied for same job. She had more desirable industry experience, called her first, talked salary, & scheduled interview. She arrived in a stunning Chanel suit–very interview appropriate. Hiring manager took one look at her, said job was filled, offered

    entry-level gig. Then manager called me, I went through three interviews–one was clearly a “does the owner give the stamp of approval that I’m a white male,” interview and was offered the job (I graphically told them what they could do with the offer).

    The dread I felt when my wife decided to take a drive in her new car and forgot to tell me she was doing so after she ran an errand at night and I thought she’d be home in 20 minutes. Me driving around the county looking for her because I hoped she wasn’t pulled over.

    My wife panicking and wanting to leave a concert when my daughter, a Marine, got pulled over for a traffic stop at night in a county that 15 years ago had signs that essentially told black people to leave at night.

    I notice how some people who are uncomfortable around blacks get tense and shaky and I have to be 1-2 steps ahead and wonder if this is the day I’m going to jail for my wife. I have learned how to take the temperature of a room in a way I never had to before.

    I notice black people taking the temperature of my behavior. Am I at ease and self-aware or am I going to be that guy trying to act black? Am I that guy who will treat my wife as some fetishized trophy? Am I the well-meaning but ignorant liberal social justice warrior 24/7?

    All of this is done out of protection and understandably so. Some have seen and experienced too much to even want to try with me. And I get that. Hate it’s that way, but I get it and know I can’t change that in one interaction–and in some cases, ever.

    What did I learn?

    Being outwardly and vocally hateful was wrong and made your family look bad but being exclusionary for ignorant reasons, telling jokes, reinforcing racism behind the scenes was intentionally and unintentionally encouraged.

    It’s the source of gaslighting.

    That racism was often tolerated by younger adults not to upset their older parents or authority figures in society with the purse strings.

    That it was ok to be friendly but not close to black people.

    That black entertainers were exceptional and not the norm. Ring a bell?

    That the norm was more like what I saw on the news. What did I see on the news? Murders, robbers, rioters in Miami reacting to police murder/brutality.

    I knew this wasn’t true. Didn’t change the emotional reactions I had from these being internalized. Sound familiar?

    Like many, these lessons created an ingrained fear. Fear of saying the wrong thing. Fear of being labeled a racist more than tacitly supporting racism. Fear of where to even begin with gaining real knowledge. It’s why so many never even begin.

    Fact is, 5 yrs ago the reactions to this behavior was met with a lot more resistance. Progress is sadly slow but it’s there. Feeling that helplessness is a part of honest recognition.

    Mostly, I’ve learned that I had to unlearn subtle and unintentional behaviors that I was taught that perpetuated systemic racism. Things family and authority taught. That it took time, effort, humility, and painful self-reflection. I’m still learning. We’re all still learning.

    And, it’s exhausting to explain as often as it needs to be explained to give someone uninitiated a clear picture. A clear picture you may not see immediately or in its totality. I’m not telling you how to be, just sharing how I’ve been. Hope it helps.

    May 24, 2020 at 11:27 pm #115304

    Topic: virus killing young people at unprecedented rate in developing countries

    in forum The Public House
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    Coronavirus is reportedly killing young people at unprecedented rates in developing countries

    https://www.businessinsider.com/washington-post-coronavirus-young-people-developing-world-2020-5

    Younger people are dying at unprecedented rates from COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, as developing countries become new hotspots for the pandemic, The Washington Post reported.

    As the coronavirus has been ravaging countries in the developing world like Brazil and India, young people make up a population of the victims and hospitalized patients at a rate unseen in previous epicenters, according to the report.

    In Brazil, people under 50 account for 5% of deaths, ten times greater than that recorded in Italy or Spain, the Post reported, and in Mexico, nearly one-fourth of the dead were aged between 25 and 49. In India, another rising hotspot, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60, according to the Post.

    The same trends can be seen in hospitalizations for patients with extreme cases, the Post reported, like in Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro state, where more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49.

    The Post wrote that experts point to existing issues like overwhelmed healthcare, extreme poverty, and inequality as exacerbating factors in the death tolls recorded in developing countries.

    In India, the explosion of cases in Mumbai has been connected to the dense cityscape and the conditions in areas like Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum, where hospitals are overwhelmed, police forces overextended, and social distancing is impossible, the New York Times reported.

    Though authorities announced in the initial weeks of the pandemic that older individuals were the most at-risk of death from the novel coronavirus, the past few months have provided widespread evidence that infection and serious cases are likely to strike younger people between 20 and 44 and analysis like the Post’s highlights the grim effect socioeconomic factors have on who is more likely to dodge or survive the virus.

    In the US, officials have identified sharply higher rates of coronavirus infections and deaths among non-white Americans in preliminary data that have been connected to higher rates of co-morbid diseases and other issues like limited access to healthcare.

    After initial numbers from states like Michigan, Illinois, and North Carolina reported last month showed African Americans were by far the hardest hit by the coronavirus, experts clarified that the pandemic did not run through all communities equally.

    A recent study by amfAR in coordination with a team of epidemiologists and clinicians from four US universities reported by CNN concluded that a wide array of “structural factors including health care access, density of households, unemployment, pervasive discrimination and others drive these disparities, not intrinsic characteristics of black communities or individual-level factors.”

    —

    In the developing world, the coronavirus is killing far more young people

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/coronavirus-brazil-killing-young-developing-world/2020/05/22/f76d83e8-99e9-11ea-ad79-eef7cd734641_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

    RIO DE JANEIRO — When the coronavirus first came to Brazil and a call went out for volunteers to work the critical care wards, Isabella Rêllo analyzed the risks. She was 28. She lived alone. She didn’t have preexisting conditions.

    So while older physicians stepped back from the front lines of the coronavirus response, Rêllo stepped up.

    Soon Rêllo, a pediatrician, was treating dozens of coronavirus patients. But they weren’t who she’d expected. This patient was only 30 years old. That one was 32. Nearly half the people she was seeing were young, she said, and many were dying. The narrative seared into the global consciousness in the early months of the pandemic — that the virus spared the young and ravaged the elderly — was not what she was watching unfold in Brazil.

    The young were at risk. She was at risk.

    Isabella Rêllo, 28, thought her youth made her safe from the coronavirus. She was shocked to see how many younger people are dying.

    “One patient was young, apparently healthy,” she said. “He was so sick, with so many complications. I thought, ‘This could be me. He could be my friend.’ The quickness that this kills people, including the young, has been a shock.”

    As the coronavirus escalates its assault on the developing world, the victim profile is beginning to change. The young are dying of covid-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus, at rates unseen in wealthier countries — a development that further illustrates the unpredictable nature of the disease as it pushes into new cultural and geographic landscapes.

    In Brazil, a dying man and a desperate search for an open bed

    In Brazil, 15 percent of deaths have been people under 50 — a rate more than 10 times greater than in Italy or Spain. In Mexico, the trend is even more stark: Nearly one-fourth of the dead have been between 25 and 49. In India, officials reported this month that nearly half of the dead were younger than 60. In Rio de Janeiro state, more than two-thirds of hospitalizations are for people younger than 49.

    Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.

    “This is new terrain compared to what’s happened in other countries,” said Daniel Soranz, the former municipal health minister in Rio de Janeiro. “Brazil is a very important country to be looking at.”

    Analysts say the emerging data suggests many of the problems that have long troubled the developing world — intractable poverty, extreme inequality, fragile health systems — are increasing vulnerability to the disease. In countries with more poverty and fewer resources, people who might have survived elsewhere are instead dying.

    George Gray Molina, chief economist for the United Nations Development Program, said poverty is triggering “compounding effects.” Because population density is so much higher in much of the developing world — and because so many people must keep working to survive — a far greater share of the population ends up being exposed to the virus.

    The virus then spreads through a population that’s less resilient. People in the developing world grapple not only with the diseases that have long been associated with it — malaria, dengue, tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS — but increasingly with those more closely associated with wealthier countries. Rates of diabetes, obesity and hypertension are surging. But treatment for many such illnesses is lacking.

    When newly infected coronavirus patients already weakened by preexisting conditions seek treatment, they find hospital systems that are overwhelmed and unequipped to handle the deluge of patients.

    “It all points to social economic status and poverty,” Gray Molina said. The positive benefits associated with the developing world, such as younger populations, are being “wiped out.”

    “As this plays out,” he said, “we will see a balancing of the scales.”

    When the coronavirus hit Brazil, it was an infection of the rich. Brought in by travelers to the United States and Europe, the coronavirus circulated primarily among the wealthy and connected. The Brazilian senate leader caught it. So did President Jair Bolsonaro’s press secretary. The Rio de Janeiro Country Club along Ipanema beach, one of Brazil’s most exclusive clubs, suffered a devastating outbreak.

    Domingos Alves, a data scientist with the University of São Paulo, has been tracking the virus here since those early weeks. The pattern in Brazil at first mirrored that in the developed world: The dead were almost exclusively elderly. Coronavirus patients were flocking to private hospitals, and anyone who needed a hospital bed received one.

    But by early April, as the virus began seeping into the favelas and slums of São Paulo and Rio, and the public hospital system started buckling, Alves noticed a sharp shift in the data. Younger people were being hospitalized at higher rates. People younger than 49 were dying. The disease was reaching lower into the demographic pyramid. The victim profile was changing.

    Public health experts: Coronavirus could overwhelm the developing world

    “Our country is made up of various smaller countries,” Alves said. “When you walk through Rio de Janeiro, you go through places that have the characteristics of Switzerland to places more like the Congo, all in the same city.”

    Cátia Simone de Lima Passos, 48, has lived her entire life in a part of the city no one would confuse for Switzerland. Every day, she and her daughter, Agatha, 25, would ride crowded buses through northern Rio to the medical clinic where they worked in the favela of Maré. Lima said they did everything they could to stay safe. They doused their hands in sanitizer. They wore masks. Her asthmatic daughter stayed home from work for weeks.

    But they both got the coronavirus and were hospitalized. Lima, after 10 days in the hospital, survived. Her daughter didn’t. Now Lima spends her days isolated in her house, alone and unable to grieve with loved ones, trying to understand why a virus that everyone said would kill only the elderly had taken her daughter but spared her.

    The unexpected cruelty of it, she said. It’s more than she can bear.

    “My house is empty,” she said. “We were partners in life.”

    Bolsonaro, a global leader in minimizing the virus, repeats a mantra: Only the elderly are at risk. So the best policy is to isolate only them. He has called it “vertical isolation.”

    “What has happened in the world has shown that the people at risk are older than 60,” he declared in a national address in late March. “So why close the schools?”

    The contradictory messaging in Brazil — between local leaders begging people to stay inside and a president calling people to return to the streets — has fueled widespread confusion. As the virus explodes here, cresting 300,000 cases and 19,000 dead, people are increasingly ignoring isolation guidelines. The beach boardwalks in Rio de Janeiro are packed on weekends. The typical infected person infects nearly three others, according to researchers at Imperial College London, one of the world’s highest rates.

    While other countries look to open up, Brazil can’t find a way to shut down

    Pedro Archer, a physician at a public hospital in Rio, said his young patients have been stunned by their illness. Some had parroted Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly belittled the illness as a “gripezinha” — a little flu. Until they got sick.

    “I have people say to me, ‘I really had thought this was only a gripezinha, and now I see this is serious,’ ” Archer said. “I’ve seen people dying who have said the same thing.”

    Others keep going out because they must. Government aid — around $105 per month for informal workers — has for many been either blocked by bureaucratic hurdles or woefully insufficient. Buses are still filled with people heading to work. Lines of people waiting for emergency funds have snaked around banks.

    “Young people are dying at a higher rate because they are coming into contact with the virus many times more, because of their working and living conditions,” said Ligia Bahia, a public health professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. “Doormen are still working. Housekeepers are still working. . . . Their viral load, their exposure, is greater.”

    Marcelo Mitidieri, a 48-year-old father of two, understood the risks but continued working as a driver to support his family. He fell sick in late April. He could scarcely breathe. He had pain in his chest. His daughter took him to a medical clinic in the impoverished Rio neighborhood of Engenho de Dentro, but it had only three respirators and three hospital beds. They had no room for him. So he sat in a broken chair for 24 hours, wheezing, texting his daughter Marcela and waiting.

    Limits on coronavirus testing in Brazil are hiding the true dimensions of Latin America’s largest outbreak

    “They want to bring me into the emergency room,” he wrote to his daughter. “But there is no equipment.”

    “Try to be calm,” pleaded Marcela, hopeful his age would save him. “Inhale and exhale. You are strong, and we are together on this.”

    “I’m very ill,” he responded in his last message before his death.

    Marcela now seethes. “If he’d gotten better treatment, he would be with me now,” she said.

    All of it has left Rêllo, the 28-year-old pediatrician who volunteered to treat coronavirus patients, terrified. But she kept working — until earlier this week, when she started to feel ill.

    A dry cough. Sneezing. Body aches. A test soon confirmed her fears: She’d caught the virus. She doesn’t know what it will do to her. She’s young, but she says she no longer believes that’s enough.

    She says she thinks of others whom she treated. She knows what they looked like.

    “Like me,” she said.

    May 24, 2020 at 2:09 pm #115295

    In reply to: Study Shows One Thing [masks] Could Cause 80% Decrease In COVID-19 Cases

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    Evidence is growing that when masks are worn by nearly everyone, it can slow coronavirus transmission.
    Masks help stop the spread of coronavirus – the science is simple and I’m one of 100 experts urging governors to require public mask-wearing

    https://theconversation.com/masks-help-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus-the-science-is-simple-and-im-one-of-100-experts-urging-governors-to-require-public-mask-wearing-138507?fbclid=IwAR1F3fS-wsAD8605JV66yyxx_TlRKJTuCSj1NL1v1sgDqch3LM8eqXizlk8

    I’m a data scientist at the University of San Francisco and teach courses online in machine learning for fast.ai. In late March, I decided to use public mask-wearing as a case study to show my students how to combine and analyze diverse types of data and evidence.

    Much to my surprise, I discovered that the evidence for wearing masks in public was very strong. It appeared that universal mask-wearing could be one of the most important tools in tackling the spread of COVID-19. Yet the people around me weren’t wearing masks and health organizations in the U.S. weren’t recommending their use.

    I, along with 18 other experts from a variety of disciplines, conducted a review of the research on public mask-wearing as a tool to slow the spread SARS-CoV-2. We published a preprint of our paper on April 12 and it is now awaiting peer review at the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    Since then, there have been many more reviews that support mask-wearing. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/resp.13834

    On May 14, I and 100 of the world’s top academics released an open letter to all U.S. governors asking that “officials require cloth masks to be worn in all public places, such as stores, transportation systems, and public buildings.”

    Currently, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that everyone wears a mask – as do the governments covering 90% of the world’s population – but, so far, only 12 states in the U.S. require it. In the majority of the remaining states, the CDC recommendation has not been enough: Most people do not currently wear masks. However, things are changing fast. Every week more and more jurisdictions require mask use in public. As I write this, there are now 94 countries that have made this move. https://airtable.com/shreZdkFaYZqfpEqU/tbl5o6qUd54BL9wkw

    So what is this evidence that has led myself and so many scientists to believe so strongly in masks?

    The evidence

    The research that first convinced me was a laser light-scattering experiment. Researchers from the National Institutes of Health used lasers to illuminate and count how many droplets of saliva were flung into the air by a person talking with and without a face mask. https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMc2007800 The paper was only recently published officially, but I saw a YouTube video showing the experiment in early March. The results are shockingly obvious in the video. When the researcher used a simple cloth face cover, nearly all the droplets were blocked. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=19&v=UNHgQq0BGLI&feature=emb_title

    This evidence is only relevant if COVID-19 is transmitted by droplets from a person’s mouth. It is. https://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters_to_the_editors/2020/05/09/evidence-shows-covid-19-is-almost-exclusively-spread-by-droplets.html There are many documented super-spreading cases connected with activities – like singing in enclosed spaces – that create a lot of droplets.

    The light-scattering experiment cannot see “micro-droplets” that are smaller than 5 microns and could contain some viral particles. But experts don’t think that these are responsible for much COVID-19 transmission.

    While just how much of a role these small particles play in transmission remains to be seen, recent research suggests that cloth masks are also effective at reducing the spread of these smaller particles. In a paper that has not yet been peer-reviewed, researchers found that micro-droplets fell out of the air within 1.5 meters of the person who was wearing a mask, versus 5 meters for those not wearing masks. When combined with social distancing, this suggests that masks can effectively reduce transmission via micro-droplets.

    Another recent study showed that unfitted surgical masks were 100% effective in blocking seasonal coronavirus in droplets ejected during breathing. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

    If only people with symptoms infected others, then only people with symptoms would need to wear masks. But experts have shown that people without symptoms pose a risk of infecting others. In fact, four recent studies show that nearly half of patients are infected by people who do not themselves have symptoms.

    This evidence seems, to me, clear and simple: COVID-19 is spread by droplets. We can see directly that a piece of cloth blocks those droplets and the virus those droplets contain. People without symptoms who don’t even know they are sick are responsible for around half of the transmission of the virus.

    We should all wear masks.

    Against the tide

    After going through all of this strong evidence in late March and early April, I wondered why mask-wearing was controversial amongst health organizations in the Western world. The U.S. and European CDCs did not recommend masks, and neither did nearly any western government except for Slovakia and Czechia, which both required masks in late March.

    I think there were three key problems.

    The first was that most researchers were looking at the wrong question – how well a mask protects the wearer from infection and not how well a mask prevents an infected person from spreading the virus. Masks function very differently as personal protective equipment (PPE) versus source control.

    Masks are very good at blocking larger droplets and not nearly as good at blocking tiny particles. When a person expels droplets into the air, they quickly evaporate and shrink to become tiny airborne particles called droplet nuclei. These are extremely hard to remove from the air. However, in the moist atmosphere between a person’s mouth and their mask, it takes nearly a hundred times as long for a droplet to evaporate and shrink into a droplet nuclei.

    This means that nearly any kind of simple cloth mask is great for source control. The mask creates humidity, this humidity prevents virus-containing droplets from turning into droplet nuclei, and this allows the fabric of the mask to block the droplets.

    Unfortunately, nearly all of the research that was available at the start of this pandemic focused on mask efficacy as PPE. This measure is very important for protecting health care workers, but does not capture their value as source control. On Feb. 29, the U.S. surgeon general tweeted that masks “are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus.” This missed the key point: They are extremely effective at preventing its spread, as our review of the literature showed.

    The second problem was that most medical researchers are used to judging interventions on the basis of randomized controlled trials. These are the foundation of evidence based medicine. However, it is impossible and unethical to test mask-wearing, hand-washing or social distancing during a pandemic.

    Experts like Trisha Greenhalgh, the author of the best-selling textbook “How to Read a Paper: The Basics of Evidence Based Healthcare,” are now asking, “Is Covid-19 evidence-based medicine’s nemesis?” She and others are suggesting that when a simple experiment finds evidence to support an intervention and that intervention has a limited downside, policymakers should act before a randomized trial is done.

    The third problem is that there is a shortage of medical masks around the world. Many policymakers were concerned that recommending face coverings for the public would lead to people hoarding medical masks. This led to seemingly contradictory guidance where the CDC said there was no reason for the public to wear masks but that masks needed to be saved for medical workers. The CDC has now clarified its stance and recommends the public use of homemade masks while saving higher-grade masks for medical professionals.

    Results of mask-wearing

    There are numerous studies that suggest if 80% of people wear a mask in public, then COVID-19 transmission could be halted. https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.07353 Until a vaccine or a cure for COVID-19 is discovered, cloth face masks might be the most important tool we currently have to fight the pandemic.

    Given all of the laboratory and epidemiological evidence, the low cost of wearing masks – which can be made at home with no tools – and the potential to slow COVID-19 transmission with widescale use, policymakers should ensure that everyone wears a mask in public.

    May 20, 2020 at 12:51 am #115115

    In reply to: Coronavirus vaccine news

    Avatar photozn
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    How close is a coronavirus vaccine?

    https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/may/12/how-close-coronavirus-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR3C9KZNWoyobmHbkywCVke_bGQZ3lF8VPGUMm_xjejkmxXcNEhm-M4Vaf0

    • The long-cited 12-to-18 month timeline to an effective vaccine is probably still on track, though meeting that deadline will require everything going right.

    • There are more than 100 vaccine projects under way across the globe. At least eight efforts have moved to the early clinical trial phase.

    • Based on the emerging evidence, experts are cautiously optimistic about whether a vaccine could confer at least some immunity, and that mutations in the virus won’t be too fast to stymie vaccine development.

    Americans are counting on a safe and effective vaccine against the novel coronavirus. Two months into the pandemic, is the U.S. and the world any closer to one?

    The short answer is yes, experts say. But creating an effective vaccine will still require a lot to go right.

    There are more than 100 vaccine projects under way worldwide, according to the World Health Organization. At least eight of them have moved to the early clinical trial phase. Four of these vaccines were created in China, one in the U.K, one in the European Union, and two in the United States. Others could move to clinical trials in the coming months.

    Having so many potential vaccines in the testing phase is impressive, experts say, considering the short time scientists have known about the novel coronavirus.

    “Multiple groups from government, industry, and academia have come together to forge partnerships that advance candidate vaccines,” said Matthew B. Laurens, an associate professor of pediatrics at the University of Maryland School of Medicine’s Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health. “The shift from other research activities to this urgent public health crisis is both encouraging and exactly what needs to happen.”

    In early April, Kathleen M. Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development and Global Health at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, told PolitiFact that if all went well, there might be five or six vaccines in trials within six months. Five weeks later, there are already more than that undergoing trials.

    Officials including Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have remained consistent in their estimation of the timeline for creating a workable vaccine: 12 to 18 months. That’s a much shorter time frame than for previous vaccines, which have taken between four years and several decades. But given the intense pressure of the coronavirus pandemic, standard development and production models are being telescoped.

    Here’s the state of play on coronavirus vaccine research, and how developments in the past two months have changed the outlook.

    What are the leading vaccine candidates?
    The one that has attracted the most attention so far is being developed by researchers at Oxford University in the U.K.

    It uses a weakened version of a common cold virus that has been modified so it doesn’t cause sickness in humans. Researchers then added proteins, known as antigens, from the novel coronavirus, in the hope that these could prime the human immune system to fight the virus once it encounters it.

    Testing by the U.S. National Institutes of Health found that one dose of the vaccine prevented rhesus macaque monkeys from getting sick after being exposed to large amounts of the virus. The vaccine has now moved on to clinical trials with 6,000 volunteers.

    The Oxford team is working in partnership with global pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca to manufacture several million doses by September — an even faster timetable than the 12-to-18 month goal.

    “That’s pretty out in front, so they must be very confident,” said William Schaffner, a professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

    Several other vaccine efforts have moved forward as well. Some are using a different approach that uses genetic material, known as mRNA, that provides the instructions for a body to produce the needed antigens themselves. This is a relatively untested approach to vaccination, but if it works, it has aspects that could simplify the manufacturing process.

    One of the vaccine candidates using this method is being developed by the U.S. pharmaceutical company Moderna. Backed by federal funding, the vaccine has been approved for a second round of clinical trials. If successful, a third trial could come this summer. The company has partnered with a Swiss company, Lonza Ltd., to produce as many as a billion doses annually.

    Another mRNA vaccine is being developed by drug giant Pfizer and BioNTech, a German company. Clinical trials are under way.

    Meanwhile, Inovio Pharmaceuticals, a U.S. company, is working on a vaccine that uses a similar approach to mRNA but using DNA material instead. This effort is receiving funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the Department of Defense, among others.

    Then there are the four vaccines being tested in China. Three of these use a more traditional vaccine method that involves a killed, and thus safe, version of the novel coronavirus. Another one uses a similar approach to the Oxford group.

    Other companies are expected to start trials within months.

    The pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson, in conjunction with a division of the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, has chosen a lead candidate for its vaccine. It has not yet begun clinical trials, but executives have publicly pledged to start producing it late this year and to deliver 1 billion doses in 2021, assuming it’s shown to be safe and effective.

    And the French company Sanofi is aiming to begin clinical trials this year for a vaccine it is developing that’s a variation on one originally used against SARS, an earlier coronavirus that caused outbreaks in Asia two decades ago.

    The fact that several vaccine approaches are being tested, with more on the way, is a positive development, since it means we aren’t putting all of our eggs in one basket.

    Should we worry about recent findings about coronavirus immunity and mutations?
    One concern is whether, and how long, a person will have immunity from the coronavirus after either being infected. If the coronavirus doesn’t inspire immunity of any significant length, that would undercut the idea of attacking it with a vaccine.

    We don’t know the answer yet, but scientists are seeing preliminary evidence that infection or a vaccine could confer at least some immunity.

    For instance, a study by Chinese researchers published in Nature Medicine found that all 285 patients hospitalized with severe COVID-19 had developed a specific antibody against the novel coronavirus called IgM within two to three weeks of their first symptoms. The National Institutes of Health touted the finding as suggesting that “the immune systems of people who survive COVID-19 have been primed to recognize (the virus) and possibly thwart a second infection.”

    Another concern is that the novel coronavirus, like many other viruses, is mutating over time. If the virus changes enough, that could become a problem that bedevils vaccine researchers.

    Experts hope the rate of change from mutations will stay manageable.

    “There’s some fuzziness around the edges, but basically the virus is remaining stable,” Schnaffner said. “This does not seem to be a virus that flips around and mutates a lot, like the seasonal flu. It doesn’t seem to be enough to cast a pall over the vaccine effort.”

    Is the 12-to-18 month timeline still on track?
    In normal times, a vaccine trial occurs in several phases. But the coronavirus pandemic has thrown this longstanding model out the window, with each phase of the process needing to be shorter or handled on parallel tracks. The federal government has launched “Operation Warp Speed” to fast-track vaccine efforts, with a goal of 300 million doses available by January 2021.

    Experts applaud efforts to create manufacturing and distribution capacity ahead of a vaccine being approved for wide use. Several pharmaceutical companies are moving forward with facilities, and the Gates Foundation is planning to fund factories for up to seven vaccines. A nagging problem, however, could be a shortage of appropriate packaging, akin to the shortages in swabs and reagents that have hampered the rollout of wide-scale testing.

    One possibility for shortening the timeline is the use of “human challenge” studies, in which otherwise healthy, lower-risk volunteers are deliberately infected with the virus. This can produce much faster findings than simply waiting for the volunteers to encounter the virus in ordinary life. This approach was successful in the recent FDA approval of Vaxchora, a vaccine developed to prevent cholera, Laurens said.

    All told, experts still have their eye on the 12-to-18 month goal.

    “It’s predicated on absolutely everything going right,” Schnaffner said. “So it’s optimistic. But I don’t think it’s too optimistic.

    May 16, 2020 at 12:22 pm #114983

    Topic: Conservative Victimhood

    in forum The Public House
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    https://news.yahoo.com/conservative-victimhood-complex-made-america-095001554.html

    The conservative victimhood complex has made America impossible to govern
    The Week
    Ryan Cooper
    •May 14, 2020

    The United States has had the worst national response to the coronavirus pandemic among rich nations largely because President Trump is an incompetent leader whose narcissism means he can focus on little beyond his own approval ratings. From the start of the crisis to today, he has completely failed to take the virus seriously, and refused to do anything meaningful to stop it. It was his job to protect America, and he can’t do the job.

    But Trump’s appalling failure is only the most visible part of a vast ocean of right-wing dysfunction. For conservative zealots and media figures, the pandemic is quickly becoming just another culture war battleground — an axis of postmodern symbolic conflict, another vent for bottomless grievance, and fuel for a screeching victimhood complex. The practical effect will be to fuel infection and hamstring economic recovery. It’s a stark obstacle before fixing this or any other crisis.

    Let’s take mask-wearing. As research about the coronavirus has developed, the effectiveness of masks in slowing the spread of the disease has become clear, above all in confined indoor spaces. Studies have found that being outdoors is relatively low-risk, and most infections happen when people are in proximity to each other indoors for a long time — but also that masks can drastically reduce the possibility of infecting others if you happen to be contagious. Offices, public transportation, stores, restaurants, church services, and especially homes are where most transmission happens. Wearing a mask whenever one is indoors around strangers is a cheap and no-consequence way of protecting one’s community — even if it only helps a little, it’s a minuscule inconvenience.

    Yet a developing narrative on the right holds that masks are a sign of weakness and cowardice. Trump refuses to wear one even to set an example, reportedly because he thinks it will make him look bad. Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) refuses to wear one even though it is not clear he is permanently immune after recovering from the disease. Vice President Pence refused to wear one even while visiting COVID-19 patients. On Fox News, Laura Ingraham defended Pence from critics, saying “They’ll say this whole mask thing is settled science just like they do with climate change. Of course, it’s not and they know it,” despite having previously endorsed wearing them. (Naturally, after two cases of coronavirus cropped up in the White House last week, all staffers are now required to wear masks when in the building.)

    Further down the conservative food chain, anti-mask fulmination has gotten more extreme and much weirder. First Things editor R.R. Reno claimed on Twitter that “Masks=enforced cowardice.” A city order in Stillwater, Oklahoma requiring masks in businesses was quickly reversed when conservative lunatics threatened violence against workers trying to enforce the rule. The conservative base is taking the elite cue — in a recent poll, just 47 percent of Republicans report wearing masks in public, against 69 percent of Democrats. At New York, Ed Kilgore reports that in a suburban Georgia grocery store, conservatives glared daggers at him for wearing a mask.

    Something similar is holding true with pandemic control measures like business closures. Smallish groups of mask-less protesters have swarmed state capitols across the country, demanding the economy be somehow reopened. When one Dallas salon owner refused to obey business closure rules and was locked up for a week, Texas Governor Greg Abbott quickly reversed his own action. “Throwing Texans in jail who have had their businesses shut down through no fault of their own is nonsensical, and I will not allow it to happen,” he said. The salon owner, of course, successfully claimed victimhood and collected over half a million dollars from a crowdfunding campaign (which very well might have been the entire point).

    It shouldn’t be surprising that the reality of masks and other pandemic control measures is the precise opposite of the conservative agitprop line. Most masks and lockdown orders are primarily a way to protect others, not just yourself — which you would think would be exactly in line with purported conservative values of traditional masculinity. But facts have never stood in the way of the conservative persecution complex. Nothing gets their blood flowing like playing martyr before imaginary liberal tyranny. Casting oneself as Anne Frank for having to wear a two-dollar cloth mask at Walmart during the worst pandemic in a century would be a stretch for most people in the world, but not American movement conservatives.

    This instinct is strengthened by how badly Trump has botched the crisis. He is the hero-president, the man before whom all Republicans must bow five times per day. His gargantuan, world-historical failure cannot be admitted, but neither can it be avoided. Therefore scapegoats and distractions must be found to relieve the cognitive dissonance. The virus is fake, or it only kills worthless old people, or it’s a Chinese conspiracy. Measures to fight it are howling liberal tyranny, even if it’s Republican governors enacting them.

    Conservative media probably just can’t help itself. The entire “perpetual misinformation machine,” as Alex Pareene calls it, runs on whipping elderly white conservatives into a frothing rage over whatever is happening. Plus today, the president and half of the Republican congressional caucus are themselves eager right-wing propaganda addicts, forming a perfectly-sealed loop of insanity. It was likely inevitable that the pandemic would get sucked into the hysteria industrial complex, because that’s what right-wing media does with everything.

    Already this has created an ideal coronavirus transmission pool — a critical mass of right-wing extremists who are unwilling to obey government pandemic control measures and are convinced personal measures to do so are beta male cowardice. Many will become sick as a result, and some will die — but not only conservatives, as the virus will infect any available host. This will keep the pandemic raging, and hence further delay the restoration of the economy.

    A different president who wasn’t an addle-brained dolt would certainly have done something to fight the pandemic. But he or she still would have run directly into the conservative lunacy problem. It’s hard to see how America can be governed when much of the country has taken leave of its senses.

    May 16, 2020 at 1:15 am #114973

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from Smokers Hospitalized Less Often for COVID-19

    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200430/smokers-hospitalized-less-often-for-covid-19

    Few of those hospitalized with the coronavirus are smokers, and researchers are trying to understand why, according to VICE. One hypothesis is that nicotine, which has anti-inflammatory properties, may interfere with the way that COVID-19 causes an overreaction of the immune system.

    “We all know that smoking is obviously bad for you,” Raymond Niaura of New York University told VICE. Niaura co-authored the paper with Farsalinos. “It follows logically that smokers would be way worse off. I would think that too. But I’ve been surprised: That’s not the story we’re necessarily seeing.”

    In France, researchers plan to test nicotine patches on hospital workers and patients who tested positive for COVID-19, according to The Guardian.

    Another preprint paper, based on a study in Paris, found data similar to that seen in China. Among 350 people admitted to the hospital, about 4.4% were regular smokers.

    Data in the U.S. look similar as well, according to the CDC. Among 7,000 hospitalized patients, about 1.3% were current smokers and 2.3% were former smokers, though about 14% of the country smokes.

    For now, scientists and public health experts are studying the hypotheses as quickly as they can. Public health agencies continue to encourage people to quit smoking and vaping during the pandemic since COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can severely affect the lungs.

    May 13, 2020 at 7:16 pm #114883

    In reply to: virus news … (+ some dark humor)

    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    ————–
    China to test ENTIRE POPULATION of Wuhan for Covid-19 after disease reemerges

    Chinese authorities plan to test all of Wuhan’s 11 million residents for Covid-19 in a little over a week. After more than a month without newly-recorded cases, the disease has suddenly reappeared in the city.

    All districts in the city were ordered to submit a plan on how they will conduct testing of all residents in their areas within 10 days, local media reported, citing a document from the authorities. The officials were told to prioritize the testing of vulnerable groups and places like residential compounds.

    The measure was announced as a response to the six new locally-transmitted cases that were recorded in Wuhan on Sunday and Monday, after no infections were registered for 35 consecutive days in the central Hubei Province, where Wuhan is the capital. All six new patients were living in the same compound.

    RT:https://www.rt.com/news/488416-wuhan-mass-testing-china/

    May 12, 2020 at 10:42 pm #114851

    In reply to: Study Shows One Thing [masks] Could Cause 80% Decrease In COVID-19 Cases

    Avatar photoBilly_T
    Participant

    A Dr Gupta — not the one who appears on CNN — said today that a recent Berkeley model shows a 12-fold reduction in transmission if 80-90% of the country wore masks.

    12-fold.

    Hindsight is 20/20, etc. . . . but I did say this back in March: If we had all been told to wear masks back in January, and there was a national buy-in, we wouldn’t have had all of these tragic deaths. As in, they were preventable. It’s just common sense. It’s not that the wearer gets fool-proof protection, though there is some, depending on the grade. It’s that he or she is largely prevented from spreading disease, by the mask. Again, common sense.

    The N95s do both. They protect the wearer and the patient. But all of us should have been wearing the basics months ago.

    And right off the bat, as I said here, I think we should retrofit all public buildings to be touch-free at any points of (human to surface) contact — to the degree technically feasible. Motion-sensors or voice activation everywhere. Doors, cupboards, elevators, bathrooms, desks, computers, etc. Especially bathrooms. We should automate our hygiene as much as we can.

    Make it a habit. Every flu season. Donn the masks. Get our flu shots, wash our hands like crazy. Just expect this as the new normal. Yearly. And during any outbreak. Habit. Routine. No big deal.

    If it saves even one life . . . why would anyone have a problem with it?

    May 12, 2020 at 4:50 pm #114837

    Topic: Noam on Covid and “lesser of 2 evils”

    in forum The Public House
    Avatar photoZooey
    Moderator

    Chomsky: COVID-19 Has Exposed the US Under Trump as a “Failed State”

    The label “failed state” has started to fit the U.S. like a glove as the COVID-19 national health crisis continues to reveal the structural flaws and weaknesses of the United States, argues world–renowned public intellectual Noam Chomsky in this exclusive interview for Truthout. Meanwhile, the Trump administration continues to exact a high price in human lives due to its caricaturish but highly dangerous response to the crisis. In the interview that follows, Chomsky also analyzes what’s behind Trump’s encouragement of the “anti-lockdown” protests, discusses the right-wing determination to destroy the U.S. Postal Service, and lays out his views on the electoral “lesser of two evils” principle.

    C.J. Polychroniou: Noam, it is widely accepted by now that the U.S. coronavirus response not only was delayed, but remains mired in contradictions as Trump battles with scientists over policy. Moreover, the country as a whole was shown to be completely unprepared for a major health crisis. Are we talking here not simply of an incompetent administration but also of a failed state?

    Noam Chomsky: Fifteen years ago, I wrote a book called Failed States, a common locution in the day, referring to states that are incapable of meeting the needs of citizens, in the most important case because of deep policy choices, and are a danger not only to their own citizens but the world. The prime example was the United States. Extensive evidence was reviewed. That’s not of course the intended use of the phrase in the doctrinal system, just as “rogue state” means some enemy, not ourselves, the prime example.

    I still stand by that judgment, which was not mine alone. A few years later, a Gallup/WIN international poll found that the U.S. is regarded as the greatest threat to world peace, no one else even close. And the severe threats of government policy to the domestic population, already quite apparent when the book appeared, became much clearer a year later when the housing bubble burst and the financial crisis ensued — along with Obama’s response: bail out the perpetrators, who became richer and more powerful than before, and forget about the congressional legislation that called for some help to the many who had lost their homes in corporate scams facilitated by the Clinton-Rubin-Summers deregulation extravaganza, extending the neoliberal assault on the population that took off under Reagan.

    That’s a large part of the background for what finally brought us the Trump malignancy — which may, quite literally, doom human society on Earth. We’ve discussed elsewhere why this is no exaggeration. I hope that the basic facts and their dread import are well understood, and won’t review them here.

    Trump has indeed hit America with a hammer blow — and much of the world as well, a matter we should not overlook. Just keeping to the current COVID-19 crisis, it is remarkable to see how little attention has been given to his sadistic assault against poor and suffering people around the world in pursuit of his goal of enhancing his electoral prospects.

    There has been some attention to his extending his vicious attacks against refugees fleeing from misery and oppression, appealing to a deluded voter base that has been led to believe that refugees are the source of their suffering under the programs to which Trump is passionately committed.

    “Incompetent” is not the right word for Trump’s malevolence, which turned serious problems in the U.S. into a devastating crisis.
    But there is hardly a word about his attack against poor people in Africa, where unknown numbers will die thanks to his defunding of the World Health Organization (WHO), which has been protecting them from a wide range of diseases, now this new plague. Or about Palestinians in the occupied territories, victims of Israel’s racist contempt for their health and other basic needs, amplified by Trump’s defunding of their meager health, educational and support systems generally because — as he explained — they weren’t treating him with enough respect while he’s smashing them in the face.

    Trump’s withholding funds from the WHO was just the first step in his campaign to destroy the organization. The campaign provides real insight into the deeply rooted malevolence not only of Trump but of the gang he has collected around him, most of whom cower in silence (though some speak out), sometimes even outdoing the boss. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been in the forefront of demonizing the WHO in support of Trump’s increasingly desperate efforts to find a scapegoat for his terrible crimes against Americans. It doesn’t matter how many miserable people are slaughtered in Africa and elsewhere in the Global South as crucial WHO services are undermined. Just “shithole countries” anyway, as the Dear Leader has explained.

    It is by now common understanding that the U.S. under Trump is a failed state that is a serious danger to the world. Diplomats speak in muted tones, not wanting to offend the raging beast in Washington who has unlimited power to destroy. But the meaning is clear when a “senior European official” says that “The U.S. administration is very fixated on the reelection campaign and on who can get blamed for this catastrophic covid-19 situation in the U.S. They are blaming WHO and China for it. Therefore it is very difficult to agree on a common language about the WHO.”

    The “common language” in question has to do with a UN Security Council resolution that the Trump administration is blocking. The resolution calls for “a global ceasefire pertaining to armed conflict in response to the pandemic [and urges] member states to ‘share timely and transparent information regarding the outbreak of COVID-19.’” But the resolution is unacceptable to the White House, because it calls on countries to “support the full implementation of the WHO International Health Regulations.” As the senior European official said, asking countries to implement procedures to contain the crisis is harmful to Trump’s reelection campaign.

    In brief, the dedication to slaughter poor and suffering people in pursuit of personal gain is so profound that even reference to WHO health regulations cannot be mentioned. The WHO is reaching the status of climate change, a phrase that has to be excised from official documents dealing with the environment. Across the board, Trump and his acolytes are echoing the words of Francisco Franco’s fascist Gen. Millán Astray: “Down with intelligence! Long live death!”

    Turning directly to your question, I think “incompetent” is not the right word for Trump’s malevolence, which turned serious problems in the U.S. into a devastating crisis. But we should not overlook the serious problems inherited by the cruel gang in today’s White House. It’s crucial to understand the background for the crisis if we hope to contain the next pandemic, likely to be worse than this one because of the impact of the global warming that is a far more severe threat.

    At the root, there are three factors: general capitalist logic, the more brutal neoliberal variant, and reactions by individual governments.

    In 2003, after the SARS epidemic, scientists were well aware that a pandemic is likely, probably a related coronavirus. They also understood how to prepare for it — just as scientists today have a good idea as to how to prepare for the coming one.

    But it’s not enough to know. Someone has to pick up the ball and run with it. The obvious candidate is Big Pharma, with huge resources, bloated with profits thanks to the exorbitant patent rights granted them under the highly protectionist “free trade” agreements. They’re ruled out, however, by normal capitalist logic. There’s no profit in preparing for a catastrophe down the road. And in fact it can be in their interest to impede a constructive response.

    Next, the government could step in, but that’s blocked by the neoliberal intensification of capitalism’s inherent inhumanity. As Reagan declaimed in his inauguration speech, government is the problem, not the solution. Translation: Take decision-making away from government, which is at least partially responsive to public influence, and hand it over to private tyrannies that are unaccountable to the public. An essential component of neoliberalism, overt since its origins in interwar Vienna, is that democracy is a threat that must be contained, even destroyed by state violence if necessary, principles advocated in word and action by the gurus of the movement: Ludwig von Mises, Friedrich Hayek and others. Furthermore, as Milton Friedman counselled in the Reagan years, the unaccountable tyrannies who control decision-making must be guided by sheer greed. Any concern for others would shake the foundations of civilization.

    The creed was not strictly observed. Obama tried to evade it slightly, but the efforts were quickly smashed by capitalist logic (the ventilator-Covidien affair that we’ve discussed elsewhere is an example). But government intervention was largely blocked.

    The third factor is the reactions of individual governments. They varied. China very quickly provided the WHO and the world with all relevant information. By early January, Chinese scientists had identified the virus and sequenced the genome. Some countries at once reacted: Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, New Zealand, a few others, which now seem to have the crisis largely under control. Europe dithered but finally acted, with varying degrees of success.

    An essential component of neoliberalism is that democracy is a threat that must be contained, even destroyed by state violence if necessary.
    At the bottom of the barrel is Trump, reflecting his dedication to his primary constituency, private wealth and corporate power, lightly hidden under a farcical display of “populism.” Throughout his term in office, Trump has systematically pursued policies that enrich his primary constituency while harming others, including his adoring crowds. One part of this program was steadily defunding the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and dismantling programs that could have provided advance warning of what was likely to happen. As a result, the U.S. was singularly unprepared.

    Though the U.S. and a few other failed states had all the information that led functioning societies to react appropriately, of course not all was entirely clear. That could hardly have been possible in such tumultuous circumstances. Like others, high U.S. health officials had some uncertainty about what exactly was happening and how best to handle it. Nevertheless, it was possible to take effective action, as shown by the record of governments that have some concern for their citizens. U.S. intelligence and health officials understood more than enough. Through January and February, they were trying to get through to the White House, but Trump was too busy watching his TV ratings. In the style of petty dictators, he has surrounded himself with sycophants or comical figures. So, nothing from them. Or from the Republican Party, now trembling in fear of the crowds that can be mobilized by Trump and his corporate sponsors.

    When some dare to inject a little rationality into administration discussions, they quickly learn their lessons, like the physician in charge of developing vaccines who was dismissed in April for warning against one of the quack medicines that Trump was advertising.

    “Down with intelligence! Long live death!”

    Trump should be given credit for his considerable achievements. It’s not easy to get away with holding up a banner with one hand saying “I love you, I’m our savior, I’m chosen by heaven to protect you,” while the other hand is stabbing you in the back. But Trump is doing it, brilliantly. He’s the supreme con man, who makes P.T. Barnum look like an amateur. He’s in a long tradition, back to trading tales for fun in the old West, to the self-declared King of France in Huckleberry Finn, to the guy who’ll sell you the Brooklyn Bridge. Moving to a different sphere, we might also include the president who won the “marketer of the year” award from the Association of National Advertisers for his political campaign, easily defeating Apple and other amateurs, and went on to win a Nobel Peace Prize for some pleasant rhetoric.

    But Trump is in a class by himself. Not just as a con man, but much more significantly as a dedicated enemy of the human race. That much is demonstrated by his policies on accelerating environmental catastrophe and dismantling the arms control regime that has provided some protection from terminal nuclear war, quite aside from a stream of peccadilloes of the kind already mentioned.

    While praising Trump for his considerable achievements, we must also bear in mind that the health system that he has been wrecking was already in terrible shape. The privatized profit-driven health system in the U.S. was an international scandal long before Trump, with costs about twice as high as comparable countries and some of the worst outcomes. On the eve of the pandemic, the costs of this dysfunctional system were estimated at $450 billion in wasted expense and 68,000 deaths annually by The Lancet, one of the world’s leading medical journals.

    Beyond that, the neoliberal business model dictates that hospital care must be “efficient”: the minimum number of nurses and hospital beds to just get by in normal times — not much fun for patients even in normal times even at the world’s best hospitals, as many can attest (myself included). And if anything goes wrong, tough luck.

    It should be added that contrary to common belief, the U.S. does have universal health care. It’s called “emergency rooms.” If you can drag yourself to one, they’ll take care of you, often with superb care — and often a hefty bill. It’s the most cruel and expensive form of universal care known, but at least it’s there.

    Bad as the situation was that Trump inherited, he has been committed to making it worse. One illustration of the commitments (and moral level) of the White House is the budget it submitted for the coming year on February 10, while the pandemic was raging. It called for still further cuts for the CDC along with increased subsidies to the fossil fuel industries that are driving us to final catastrophe. And, of course, more funding for the bloated military and for the famous wall that will protect us from the rapists and murderers surging across the border.

    That barely skims the surface. Failed state? Four more years?

    Are the anti-lockdown protests, which Trump is openly encouraging, merely about the shutting down of the economy and quarantines?

    We have enough experience to see that virtually everything Trump does is about himself — the country and the world be damned. In this case, one can detect a strategy behind the ongoing circus. Trump has been casting about to find someone to blame for his crimes. After evoking the Yellow Peril and laboring to destroy the WHO, with grim effects, he’s pretty much run out of targets. A rational next step is to tell governors that it’s your business: the federal government, which has all the resources, can’t do anything for you. If anything goes wrong, it’s your fault, not mine. And if something happens to go right somewhere, it demonstrates what a stable genius I am, and will be trumpeted by Sean Hannity as the most brilliant decision in human history.

    Trump is in a class by himself. Not just as a con man, but much more significantly as a dedicated enemy of the human race.
    This is similar to the strategy of saying one thing today and the opposite tomorrow, each echoed rapturously by Fox News while the liberal press dutifully tots up the lies (20,000?). If you shoot arrows at random, some may hit the target. And if one does? I’m vindicated and the scam goes on. You can’t lose.

    The governors’ ploy is about the same: enforce lockdown, open up the economy (and protect our “Second Amendment rights,” which has nothing to do with anything but pushes the right buttons). If it makes life harder for the governors and leads to many deaths, that’s OK too. It’s all the fault of the urban centers where diseases and other maladies fester among those who are poisoning our lily–white society.

    Malevolent, but not stupid.

    It’s tempting to add the injunction to the states by Mitch McConnell, the real evil genius of the Republican organization. Go bankrupt. The Republican Senate is not going to compensate you for your foolish decision to give pensions to firefighters, teachers, policemen and other undeserving takers. We have to save the money for the makers, like the airline industries that need $50 billion because in the glory days of high profits, instead of improving services and building the enterprises, they spent close to $50 billion in buybacks to inflate stock prices and compensation for management. After all, first things first. There’s no need to elaborate. His vileness has been so egregious that there’s been plenty of commentary in the mainstream press.

    In defense of Trump, McConnell and rest of the merry gang, they are carrying to an extreme the only way of dealing with the dilemma that the Republicans have faced since they turned to pure service to the business world. It’s hard to go to voters and say, “Look, we’re the more extreme of the two business parties. We’re designing policies to benefit our primary constituency of great wealth and corporate power, and to throw you into the waste bin. So vote for us.”

    Somehow, that doesn’t work well. So it’s important to divert attention to “cultural issues,” to pretend to be adamantly opposed to abortion rights and love assault rifles, to be terrified of them, to dismiss global warming as a Commie plot, and all the rest. The word “pretend” is quite appropriate, but I won’t go into that here.

    The Democratic establishment has its own sins to answer for, but it is nothing like this; more like the moderate Republicans of the days before the Gingrich-Hastert-McConnell era. And it is subject to popular pressures, which have moved the party considerably to the left in recent years. That’s not insignificant.

    World leaders’ approval rating has soared as a result of their handling of the coronavirus crisis, with the exception of Donald Trump. Could coronavirus be the determinant element that will put an end to four years of a nightmarish scenario written, directed, produced and carried out by the most dangerous buffoon this country has had for president? Trump’s Waterloo, so to speak?

    Trump benefited from the usual leadership bump when he finally acknowledged that the crisis was real, two months late, and assumed the proper presidential pose. His approval ratings have since receded to the norm from the beginning of his presidency. That’s a pretty impressive performance considering what he’s done to the country. I can’t guess where it will go from here. It’s really hard to say. He’s damned resilient, and his voting base and media echo chamber stay loyal. Current statistics show that he seems to be back to his norm of approval, which hasn’t varied a great deal through his term. And if it looks bad, they might pull something before November. Like concocting an incident and bombing Iran.

    Why is Trump bent on destroying the U.S. Postal Service (USPS)?

    What does the postal service contribute to private wealth and corporate power (Trump’s primary constituency)? Essentially nothing. Just means that they have to pay taxes for rural mail service and other services for ordinary people — insofar as they pay taxes, another interesting topic that I’ll put aside. If the USPS is privatized, it can contribute to private wealth and corporate power, and they can run it “efficiently,” like the health care system.

    A good deal more is involved. It’s important to them to drive out of people’s heads the idea that democracy might work, that a public system can serve the needs of the general public. In much of the country, the local post office not only serves people’s needs efficiently but is even a place where you can stop by and chat with a human being and meet your friends.

    And — horror of horrors — activists might be able to help people realize why the postal service was set up by the founders. Its prime function in early years was to deliver journals and magazines cheaply, a subsidy to an independent press, what the founders seem to have had in mind in framing the First Amendment. These matters are explored in depth in scholarly work by Robert McChesney and Victor Pickard, who carry the discussion right to the 20th century struggles to join the world in having vibrant public media, a critical matter for media activists today.

    That’s dangerous turf. Better to destroy the virus of democracy before it infects too many people.

    Joe Biden expressed the fear last week that Trump might attempt to delay the November 2020 election. Is this a likely scenario? Does the sitting president have the authority to do so on account of a national crisis?

    No constitutional authority, but Trump is quite capable of imitating his ludicrous friend Jair Bolsonaro and declaring “I am the Constitution.” Unlike the Brazilian judiciary, the Roberts Supreme Court might back such a statement up. And if granted another four years of court-packing up and down the line with young ultra-right figures, virtually anything will be possible. Anything, that is, but mildly progressive measures. Their fate will be dim for a generation or more.

    It’s also not beyond imagination that if Trump loses the electoral college (not just the popular vote), he’ll declare the election illegitimate, claiming that the Democrats brought in undocumented immigrants, and insist on staying in office, surrounded by armed militias.

    I can’t verify it, but it’s been credibly reported that if he has to leave the White House, Trump may be facing serious charges brought by states’ attorneys. That aside, given his mental state, Trump might not be able to handle defeat and walk away like a normal human being.

    Many on the left feel, naturally, and with much justification, extremely uncomfortable about Joe Biden. In fact, we hear now from some quarters the same arguments we heard in 2016 about Hillary Clinton, which is to say that it would be unconscionable for progressives to accept the “lesser of two evils” principle. How can we understand the political and conceptual context of electoral choices made by progressives and the left in November 2020?

    These questions are plainly important. They are a matter of intense discussion and often impassioned debate on the left, and plenty of invective. That makes them worth discussing. To be quite frank, I don’t see much other reason for discussing them. I’ve tried to explain in recent interviews, and judging by the reactions, have failed. So, I will repeat in more detail.

    I’ve been around for a long time and can’t think of a candidate about whom I was not “extremely uncomfortable,” at least since FDR (and I was too young to have considered opinions then).

    In Biden’s case it’s easy to think of reasons to be extremely uncomfortable. We can begin with his participation in the destruction of Libya and Honduras, in Obama’s global assassination campaign, in breaking all records in deportation — and on from there. But while continuing with constant efforts to change that world, we have to take off a few minutes to each make our own choices on election day.

    In the moral domain, what matters is the predictable consequences of your actions, those you are well aware of but choose to ignore. No one cares if you feel your conscience is clear.
    Let’s think through the two concepts that lie behind the question: “unconscionable” and “lesser of two evils principle.”

    Let’s start with “unconscionable.” There are those — including close personal friends and long-time activists whom I greatly respect — who take the position that some actions are simply “unconscionable,” whatever the consequences. I will ignore this position. To me, frankly, it seems not worth discussing. In the moral domain, what matters is the predictable consequences of your actions, those you are well aware of but choose to ignore. No one cares if you feel your conscience is clear.

    Let’s turn to the lesser of two evils principle.

    Throughout my lifetime of activism (almost 80 years), I’ve been familiar with two doctrines about voting. One is the official doctrine.

    Official doctrine holds that politics consists of showing up every few years, pushing a lever, then going back to one’s private pursuits. Citizens are “spectators,” not “participants in action,” according to official doctrine. They can choose one or another member of the leadership class (“the responsible men”) but that’s the limit of popular participation. I happen to be quoting Walter Lippmann, a respected public intellectual of the 20th century (a Wilson-FDR-JFK liberal), in his “progressive essays in democracy,” but the ideas are representative of prevailing liberal opinion. They trace back to the framers of the Constitution. That’s why the “gold standard” in constitutional scholarship, a fine and illuminating study by Michael Klarman, is called “The Framers’ Coup” — a coup against the popular demand for democracy.

    On the right, views are much harsher.

    A second doctrine is the one that has always prevailed on the left, call it “left doctrine.” Politics consists in constant direct popular engagement in public affairs, including a wide variety of activism on many fronts. Occasionally an event comes up in the formal political arena called an “election.” For left activists, that requires spending a brief period assessing the options (a very brief period for legitimate activists, who’ve been following everything relevant closely). Then comes a decision as to whether it’s worthwhile to take a few minutes away from ongoing political work to push a lever in the quadrennial extravaganza. It’s at most a brief departure from political engagement.

    That’s the doctrine that I’ve followed all my life, sometimes abstaining because the show didn’t seem to matter and there’s no point legitimizing the charade by participating, sometimes voting for a third party, sometimes voting for Jones if it’s important to block Smith. I’ve sometimes voted for a Republican, in years when the Republicans were still a bone fide political party and had a better candidate.

    There are, of course, myriad other cases, but the general point of left doctrine seems clear.

    In recent years, a third doctrine has made an appearance and is now consuming much debate on the left: the lesser of two evils principle. I’d never heard of it before, in a lifetime of intensive political engagement (in the left doctrine sense). And it seems quite strange to me. It obviously is quite different from left doctrine, the prevailing doctrine on the left. The intensive debate about it falls within official doctrine, with its laser-like focus on the elections.

    My own feeling about the lesser of two evils principle, of course, is that we should reject it in favor of left doctrine. It has no merits that I can see, so I think we can put it aside, along with the often–fevered debate about it.

    Let’s now consider the immediate case in hand. If the traditional left doctrine were applied to the current situation, it would require comparing Trump and his entourage with Biden and his, and asking whether there is a difference between them.

    I personally think the difference is colossal. First and decisive, another four years of Trump and we’ll have approached or possibly passed tipping points on the path toward environmental catastrophe toward which Trump is racing, his “party” in tow, virtually isolated in the world, certainly in the political system here. Just as important, the arms control regime will be dismantled, sharply increasing the threat of terminal war. The severe threats that Trump has incited in the Middle East will have increased, if not exploded. The Doomsday Clock, already reduced to seconds under Trump, will probably be close to abandoned. The reactionary international led by the White House that Trump is establishing will be well solidified. At home, the judiciary will be so packed by ultra-right young judges that no progressive initiatives will be able to be implemented for a generation. By the wayside we’ll be observing other horrors, like children sent to concentration camps on the border, Black people murdered on a whim, etc.

    An advocate of left doctrine will spend a few minutes reviewing the familiar facts, then take off another few minutes to push a lever, then go back to work.

    I know of only one proposed counterargument. We have to put pressure on the Democratic establishment. To begin with, it’s not a counterargument. It simply reiterates the main thesis of left doctrine: constant pressure. The only remaining question is how to impose pressure. There are, basically, two proposals on the table. The first is left doctrine. The second is refusing to vote for Biden.

    Let’s take a look at these.

    Left doctrine efforts can work, as they often have before. We all know that that has been the main source of progress over the years.
    First, left doctrine. We continue with what has been done, and has been very effective. One illustration is the Sanders campaign, which has been a remarkable success in shifting debate and policy choices to the left. The activism of the Sunrise Movement — aided by young congresswomen brought to office in the Sanders wave, notably Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — has brought to the legislative agenda a Green New Deal, with the cooperation of liberal Democrat Ed Markey, senator from Massachusetts. Some version of a Green New Deal is essential for survival. There have also been significant shifts in other areas (health care, minimum wage, harsh repression in vulnerable communities, women’s rights, on and on). We can, in fact, see this in Biden’s program, which is well to the left of previous Democratic front-runners. That’s why Biden is supported against Trump by Sanders (who had a large role in bringing the shift about) and also by longtime labor activists like Lawrence Mishel and Jared Bernstein. It’s not my program, or yours, but we can hardly doubt that it is an improvement over what preceded.

    Left doctrine efforts can work, as they often have before. We all know that that has been the main source of progress over the years, particularly when there were administrations susceptible to activist pressure.

    It could be argued that political programs are just words. True, but irrelevant. Left doctrine efforts can keep Biden’s feet to the fire, as has often happened in the past. And there will be opportunities to go far beyond, an urgent necessity.

    In contrast, we can be sure that a Trump administration will be rock solid in opposition.

    The second approach is to refuse to vote for Biden in the hope that withholding the vote will convince the Democratic establishment to take us seriously down the road. I can’t honestly construct a plausible version of this view, and it would be unfair to try.

    Turning finally to your question, “How can we understand the political and conceptual context of electoral choices made by progressives and the left in November 2020?”

    To me the answer seems clear. We should assess whether there is meaningful difference between the candidates, and also recognize that, for most of us, voting takes a few minutes. Then we go back to our real activist work.

    May 8, 2020 at 11:33 am #114720

    In reply to: Mr. Science, whats your take on vitamin D?

    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    fwiw:

    Vitamin d:https://aru.ac.uk/news/vitamin-d-linked-to-low-virus-death-rate-study

    published: 7 May 2020 at 13:16
    Image of the COVID-19 virus

    New COVID-19 research finds relationship in data from 20 European countries

    A new study has found an association between low average levels of vitamin D and high numbers of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates across 20 European countries.

    The research, led by Dr Lee Smith of Anglia Ruskin University (ARU) and Mr Petre Cristian Ilie, lead urologist of Queen Elizabeth Hospital King’s Lynn NHS Foundation Trust, is published in the journal Aging Clinical and Experimental Research.

    Previous observational studies have reported an association between low levels of vitamin D and susceptibility to acute respiratory tract infections. Vitamin D modulates the response of white blood cells, preventing them from releasing too many inflammatory cytokines. The COVID-19 virus is known to cause an excess of pro-inflammatory cytokines.

    Italy and Spain have both experienced high COVID-19 mortality rates, and the new study shows that both countries have lower average vitamin D levels than most northern European countries. This is partly because people in southern Europe, particularly the elderly, avoid strong sun, while skin pigmentation also reduces natural vitamin D synthesis.

    The highest average levels of vitamin D are found in northern Europe, due to the consumption of cod liver oil and vitamin D supplements, and possibly less sun avoidance. Scandinavian nations are among the countries with the lowest number of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates per head of population in Europe.

    Dr Lee Smith, Reader in Physical Activity and Public Health at Anglia Ruskin University, said:
    “We found a significant crude relationship between average vitamin D levels and the number COVID-19 cases, and particularly COVID-19 mortality rates, per head of population across the 20 European countries.

    “Vitamin D has been shown to protect against acute respiratory infections, and older adults, the group most deficient in vitamin D, are also the ones most seriously affected by COVID-19.

    “A previous study found that 75% of people in institutions, such as hospitals and care homes, were severely deficient in vitamin D. We suggest it would be advisable to perform dedicated studies looking at vitamin D levels in COVID-19 patients with different degrees of disease severity.”

    Mr Petre Cristian Ilie, lead urologist of Queen Elizabeth Hospital King’s Lynn NHS Foundation Trust, said:
    “Our study does have limitations however, not least because the number of cases in each country is affected by the number of tests performed, as well as the different measures taken by each country to prevent the spread of infection. Finally, and importantly, one must remember correlation does not necessarily mean causation.”

    May 2, 2020 at 10:08 am #114502

    Topic: LA Rams 2019 mid-season additions act like 2020 NFL Draft picks

    in forum The Rams Huddle
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    LA Rams 2019 mid-season additions act like 2020 NFL Draft picks

    LA Rams 2019 mid-season additions act like 2020 NFL Draft picks
    by Bret Stuter 1 day ago Follow @milroyigglesfan

    The LA Rams added 3 players in the midst of the 2019 NFL season. Here’s why they should be considered to be 2020 NFL Draft picks

    The LA Rams ended the 2019 NFL season with just five draft picks. The team faced multiple scenarios through the course of the year which required roster adjustments, whether to shed players, add players, or exchange players. In the end, each transaction affected the roster at a point midway through the year.

    Unlike player injuries or coming back from injury, or even being called up or demoted to the practice squad, these three circumstances placed a jersey on football players who had no foreknowledge of the LA Rams’ playbook, coaching staff, players, or even community. And one of the greatest assets for the LA Rams is offensive line coach Aaron Kromer. Two offensive linemen, one of whom a starter at multiple positions in 2019, never had the chance to benefit from his training camp.

    The shortage of 2020 NFL Draft picks stems from the Rams desperate attempt to go all-in on the chance to make the 2019 NFL Playoffs. While that effort fell short, the team finished at a very respectable 9-7 record. That is despite all the horror stories of multiple injuries that haunted the offensive line all season, a defensive backfield which was blown up and restocked in mid-season, and three of the most highly paid players on offense all having sub-standard seasons.

    Addition 3: Center

    The LA Rams added center Coleman Shelton by signing him from the Arizona Cardinals practice squad. At the time, the team had lost rookie center Brian Allen for the season and had lost veteran interior offensive lineman Austin Blythe for several games due to injury. To compensate, the LA Rams had to trade for an interior offensive lineman in midseason and then needed a center to be the team’s backup.

    Fortunately for the LA Rams, they chose very wisely.

    Coleman Shelton has not had the benefit of LA Rams offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, and as a result, has waited patiently for his opportunity to take offensive snaps on the starting line for several years. At 6-foot-5 and 285 pounds, he is a huge center who becomes the offense’s own worst enemy to shorter quarterbacks trying to peer over him to find receivers downfield. Thankfully, LA Rams quarterback Jared Goff stands in a 6-foot-4, giving him plenty of height see over Shelton and find his targets in their downfield routes.

    Shelton is extremely athletic, a muscular center whose role on an offensive line requires plenty of snaps to understand his own assignment, and that of other players at the line of scrimmage. While he has yet to play significant snaps for any NFL team, he has yet to benefit from an offseason training program under Coach Kromer. At worst, he is the equivalent of a seventh-round pick. But compared to the talent level of the 2020 NFL Draft, Shelton is more like the equivalent of a fourth-round pick.

    Addition 2: Interior offensive lineman

    After a series of injuries exhausted the LA Rams reserve offensive lineman, general manager Les Snead acted quickly by trading the team’s 2020 fifth-round draft pick to the Cleveland Browns for their reserve interior offensive lineman Austin Corbett. Originally drafted by the Browns in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, Corbett soon found himself buried on the depth chart. That is where he was when the LA Rams traded a 2020 NFL Draft fifth-round pick for him.

    From the moment he arrived at the Rams, he was placed into service. First at the center, then at the left guard, he was the Rams version of duct tape. Despite the hurried manner of onboarding, he was a solid player and he held his own on the team’s badly besieged offensive line.

    After a better than expected debut in 2019, Corbett now has the opportunity to train, practice, be coached, and earn his 2020 starting role once more. Not only should he be able to do so, but he should be able to perform as one of the better NFL offensive linemen this season. His original draft spot of pick 33 is the equivalent 2020 NFL Draft pick value he has for the Rams this season.

    Addition 1: Cornerback

    When the LA Rams decided to trade for cornerback Jalen Ramsey, the team had to overcome a number of hurdles in order to do so. The team had to clear a roster spot. In addition, the team had to clear sufficient salary cap space to do so. And then ultimately, the LA Rams needed to exchange sufficient assets to make the trade complete.

    Despite the lack of a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, the LA Rams can equate that value in obtaining one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL today, Jalen Ramsey. The Rams traded their 2020 first-round pick plus their 2021 first and fourth-round picks to the Jacksonville Jaguars for cornerback Ramsey, whose contract expires in 2020.

    The ultimate cost to the Rams for Ramsey is more than the picks required to pry him from the Jacksonville Jaguars. He also cost the Rams the play of both Aquib Talib, Marcus Peters, and a fifth-round pick. Ultimately, was he worth it? Yes.

    In the 2020 NFL Draft, the Jacksonville Jaguars selected edge rusher, K’Lavon Chaisson with the 20th pick. Four cornerbacks had already been selected off the board and the players remaining on the board did not have the same value as that of Rams CB Ramsey. In essence, Ramsey is the equivalent of the Rams 2020 first-round draft pick.

    While the LA Rams added nine rookie players in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Rams have the equivalent of a fourth-round pick for Coleman Shelton, a second-round pick for Austin Corbett, and a first-round pick for Jalen Ramsey. That translates into 12 pick-equivalents from the 2020 NFL Draft and includes two interior offensive linemen who will be capable of starting in 2020, plus an elite cornerback. In the end, the LA Rams 2020 NFL Draft was fairly comprehensive after all.

    Agamemnon

    April 26, 2020 at 11:13 am #114247

    In reply to: Rams & the media on the Rams draft

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Snead, McVay recap third and final day of 2020 NFL Draft

    Stu Jackson

    https://www.therams.com/news/snead-mcvay-day-3-nfl-draft-recap

    Rams general manager Les Snead and head coach Sean McVay met with local media Saturday evening to put a bow on the 2020 NFL Draft. Here is a recap of some of the most important topics they covered:

    Addressing eight different positions – RB, WR, OLB, S, TE, S, LB, K, OG – with nine picks by the end of Day 3

    Snead said it wasn’t necessarily the goal to spread out their approach in that manner, but when the Houston Texans called and presented an opportunity for the Rams to move back and acquire a pair of additional seventh-round picks, they felt it was the right move. It allowed them to get linebacker Cody Johnston, kicker Samuel Sloman and offensive guard Tremayne Anchrum, who Snead felt the Rams may not have been able to get had they just stayed put.

    Such a spread-out approach reflects the competitiveness of the team, according to McVay.

    “All these players give us the ability to do that with a unique blend of things coming together, where they added value and they happen to fulfill needs as well,” McVay said.

    As for earlier in the draft, the intent was to get players who could potentially step in to fill roles of the players they lost in free agency, according to Snead. However, sometimes with the way the draft board falls, it forces a team to go from Plan A to Plan B.

    The Rams found themselves in that situation when Purdue tight end Brycen Hopkins was still available after they traded back with the Texans to pick No. 136.

    “We really like our tight end room right now, but we had him highly rated and felt like he could come in and carve out a role early but also later,” Snead said. “We didn’t have to make that pick, but sometimes when you make those types of picks, there’s an element of drafting in a microscope, but also with a telescope and you feel like, ‘Hey, the guy can make plays.’

    Confidence in the offensive line

    While some experts believed Los Angeles would look to address its offensive line early, it instead waited until much later in the draft to do so, using its final pick to take Clemson offensive guard Tremayne Anchrum in the seventh round.

    Snead said that approach reflected their confidence in the younger offensive linemen the Rams have taken in previous drafts.

    “When Sean mentioned yesterday trading for Austin Corbett, it was just a couple of years ago that he was the 33rd pick in the draft,” Snead said. “Even this year, we wouldn’t have been able to pick an Austin Corbett. We’ve been adding those players, and fortunately or unfortunately a lot of them got to play last year, with David Edwards and Bobby Evans in particular. They got a chance to play when we were really going to spend a year developing them as backups. We felt confident that if we continued grooming and developing these players, they’d have a chance to become a very solid offensive line.”

    Other positions to address?

    It’s too soon to tell. Snead said they planned to let the draft settle, then sit down and look at their roster.

    Part of the reason for the patient approach is because Snead said they will do what they’ve done every year – evaluate the roles of young players who didn’t see the field much or at all as rookies, then were elevated into larger roles to address needs.

    The example Snead used was defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day, a 2018 sixth-round pick who was inactive for all 16 games and three postseason games in 2018, then helped fill the void left by the departure of Ndamukong Suh by taking on a bigger role in 2019.

    “So that’s what we’ve discussed about some of our younger players that may have less playing time, but you’re always going to look to see, ‘Hey, how can you make a more competitive or add someone to be more competitive any time you get that chance.'”

    April 25, 2020 at 7:04 pm #114181

    In reply to: 234 – Clay Johnston LB, 248 – Sam Sloman K, and 250 – Tremayne Anchrum G

    Avatar photocanadaram
    Participant

    Ourlands on Tremayne Anchrum

    Three-year starter, Powder Springs, GA. Earned first-team All ACC honours in 2019 after being named second-team in 2018. A college right tackle who will make the move to guard in the NFL. Has a lot of power potential if he can simply get more aggressive with his hands at the start. He too often trusted his ability to anchor in college, which did work most of the time. He will be a project, as he is changing positions and has plenty to clean up, but there is still a chance he can evolve into a starter. Very stout and strong from top to bottom. Has a powerful anchor and heavy hands. Gets out of his stance assertively but under control. Usually stays in phase and won’t abandon his lower body techniques. Maintains a wide base. Can play with a low centre of gravity, creating good balance against power. Effective against linebackers in space, stays patient. Will struggle to re-establish good hand position if a defender swipes them away. Loses against speed and quickness too often. Will wait too long to attack a defender at times, needs to be more aggressive with his hands. Gets top heavy during engagement. OSR: 30/41. Fifth/sixth round. (A-33 5/8, H-9 5/8, BP-26, 10-1.83).

    • This reply was modified 5 years, 1 month ago by Avatar photocanadaram.
    April 25, 2020 at 9:09 am #114099

    In reply to: DRAFT DAY 3

    Avatar photoAgamemnon
    Participant

    My 2020 250 player Big Board

    50. Donovan Peoples-Jones – WR – Michigan – 6′-2″ 212 lbs. – Good hands and an excellent athlete. Underused in that woeful Mich. offense. He is more of a projection due to lack of production.

    65. Troy Pride – CB – Notre Dame – 5′-11″ 193 lbs. – Under-rated athletically, has good speed and can work in man and zone coverages. A perfect #2 CB.

    67. Bryce Hall – CB – Virginia – 6′-1″ 202 lbs. – Long, physical and smart. Always taking good angles and is in the proper position. Not the world’s best athlete. he will outwork you. Zone CB.

    68. Brycen Hopkins – TE – Purdue – 6′-4″ 245 lbs. – Your prototypical new age TE. A mismatch problem in the middle of the field that is a smooth, easy mover. Not an inline blocker, I worry a bit about his hands.

    69. Jacob Eason – QB – Washington – 6′-6″ 231 lbs. – Biggest arm in the class, but is a statue and panics a little too easily for my taste.

    71. Leki Fotu – IDL – Utah – 6′-4″ 330 lbs. – A monster NT with a little pass rush juice to him. Good motor and is almost impossible to move. Not the athletic freak Lawrence was last year.

    72. Ben Bartch – OT – St. Johns (MN) – 6′-6″ 309 lbs. – Small School prospect that held his own at Senior Bowl. TE turned OT. Athletic with a nice anchor, he needs seasoning. Arm length probably moves him inside.

    74. Eno Benjamin – RB – Arizona State – 5′-9″ 207 lbs. – Physical for his size, smooth lower half and can be slippery to tackle. Change of pace back only.

    77. Jake Fromm – QB – Georgia – 6′-2″ 219 lbs. – Smartest QB in the draft, has a noodle for an arm and is a little on the small side.

    80. Alohi Gilman – S – Notre Dame – 5′-10″ 201 lbs. – A zone safety that is an absolute hammer coming forward. Another versatile player that can do a little of everything.

    81. Prince Tega Wanogho – OT – Auburn – 6′-5″ 308 lbs. – Surprise, an athletic, raw skilled LT from Auburn. He has elite tools, but needs a year learning and gaining strength.

    82. Curtis Weaver – Edge – Boise St. – 6′-3″ 265 lbs. – He could either be a 43 or 34. Lacks an ideal athletic profile, but has a hot motor, a good first step, active hands and handles his own against the run. Another high floor, lower ceiling type.

    84. Akeem Davis-Gaither – LB – Appalachian St. – 6′-2″ 224 lbs. – Highly productive WILL that plays fast, can cover and rush the QB. I like him outside in a 43, but maybe a MO in a 34…

    86. Albert Okwuegbunam – TE – Missouri – 6′-5″ 258 lbs. – Big target with enough athletic ability to create issues in the seam. A decent and willing blocker inline. Offense and QB really slowed down his progression.

    87. Darnay Holmes – CB – UCLA – 5′-10″ 195 lbs.- Smooth and quick are his calling cards. I wish he was more aggressive. off man or zone scheme fit.

    88. K’Von Wallace – S – Clemson – 5′-11″ 206 lbs. – Physical, will stick his face in the fan and has some nice ball production. Not overly athletic or fast, but versatile.

    90. Thaddeus Moss – TE – LSU – 6′-2″ 250 lbs. – Not the freakish athlete his dad was, but is a monster in the blocking game, is a nuanced route runner and knows how to get open. Competes hard.

    91. Troy Dye – LB – Oregon – 6′-4″ 231 lbs. – Another see ball, chase ball LBer that needs to add strength. But he makes plays all over the field.

    92. Antoine Brooks Jr. – S – Maryland – 5′-11″ 220 lbs. – Here is that big nickel LBer or third safety I have been talking about for the last year or so. best working around the box in sub packages. Physical, emotional and not extremely rangy.

    94. Saahdiq Charles – OT – LSU – 6′-4″ 321 lbs. – A smooth mover with good athleticism, but lacks power. A move inside might be in his future. zone scheme prospect.

    98. Steven Montez – QB – Colorado – 6′-4″ 231 lbs. – Big arm, all the tools, has just never put it all together.

    99. Logan Stenberg – IOL – Kentucky – 6′-6″ 317 lbs. – Meanest, nastiest OG in the draft. Won’t win on style points and will talk your ear off. Not a great athlete.

    100. Tyler Biadasz – IOL – Wisconsin – 6′-4″ 314 lbs. – OC for any scheme. Excellent mover with a great anchor and good strength. Off season hip surgery slowed him down last season. Followed by shoulder surgery this off season. Could be a heck of a steal.

    101. Khalid Kareem – Edge – Notre Dame – 6′-4″ 268 lbs. – Long and strong, excellent against the run, not much juice as a pass rusher. A bit stiff. 43 end only.

    103. Rashard Lawrence – IDL – LSU – 6′-2″ – 308 lbs. – What you would expect in an LSU DL, tough, strong and excellent against the run. Doesn’t offer much in the way of a pass rush.

    106. Bradlee Anae – Edge – Utah – 6′-3″ 257 lbs. – Can rush the passer and hold his own against the run, excellent hand fighter, with a top-notch motor. Not the greatest athlete. 43 or 34 compatable.

    107. Hunter Bryant – TE – Washington – 6′-2″ 248 lbs. – Smooth moving, explosive pass catcher. Offers nothing in the way of blocking and his size won’t scare anyone.

    108. Larrell Murchison – IDL – NC State – 6′-2″ 297 lbs. – A nose for the ball with a great motor. Not the rangiest 3 tech, but he will apply constant pressure.

    110. Quartney Davis – WR – Texas A&M – 6′-1″ 201 lbs. – A skilled route runner with excellent footwork. Not slow, but not exactly a deep threat. hands are spotty. .

    113. Amik Robertson – CB – Louisiana Tech – 5′-8″ 187 lbs. – slot corner due to his size. But he is a mean, physical little dude that will bring the fight to you.

    114. Lamical Perine – RB – Florida – 5′-11″ 216 lbs. – A patient power back with just enough juice to get to the house. Enough wiggle to get outside, but is at his best working north to south.

    115. Collin Johnson – WR – Texas – 6′-6″ 222 lbs. – Touted as the next Randy Moss, it didn’t happen, but he has good speed, wins with his size and is a contested catch, 50-50 ball machine. Size mismatch.

    118. Kenny Willekes – Edge – Michigan State – 6′-4″ 264 lbs. – Relentless, tough, strong, try hard with average athletic ability for the position. I think due to that he is a 43 DE.

    119. Anthony McFarland – RB – Maryland – 5′-8″ 208 lbs. – An undersized, raw talented HR threat from anywhere on the field. Not a 3 down guy.

    120. Ben Bredeson – IOL – Michigan – 6′-5″ 315 lbs. – A LG prospect I love that has played in Gap/man/OSZ at Mich so he is versatile. Decent mover with good balance and very good power that looks to finish blocks.

    121. Shaquille Quarterman – LB – Miami – 6′-1″ 234 lbs. – A real old school MLBer that reads, reacts and then thumps. I think he moves well enough to help in some coverage.

    124. Evan Weaver – LB – California – 6′-2″ 237 lbs. – Not the world’s greatest athlete, but he is so instinctual he’s always around the ball. Super productive. Not a hammer and not great in coverage.

    125. Tyler Johnson – WR – Minnesota – 6′-1″ 206 lbs. – A nuanced route runner that knows how to get open. Plays with some physicality. I question his speed and he didn’t run so…

    126. Netane Muti – IOL – Fresno St. – 6′-3″ 315 lbs. – Skill set, power and movement ability should have him as the top IOL in the draft. he can flat out dominate. And looks to dominate you. Cannot stay healthy. Serious medical red flags.

    130. David Woodward – LB – Utah State – 6′-2″ 230 lbs. -Not fast or super athletic, but he is smart, instinctual and has a big motor. He is everywhere. ILB

    131. Nick Harris – IOL – Washington – 6′-1″ 302 lbs. – Smaller, smooth moving OC that lacks the power to go heads up against any kind of power. Good technique. Zone scheme only.

    132. Shane Lemieux – IOL – Oregon – 6′-4″ 310 lbs. – mauler, not an athlete. Choppy footwork. Works well in a man scheme.

    133. Nick Coe – Edge – Auburn – 6′-5″ 280 lbs. – Big, long and strong. Played from 2 and 3 point at Auburn. He is going to end up being a 34 End in the NFL. I question his passion for football.

    134. Jared Pinkney – Vanderbilt – 6′-4″ 257 lbs. – Great hands, good athlete, good enough blocker to play inline. Needs to cleanup route running. Not a monster after the catch.

    136. Quintez Cephus – WR – 6′-1″ 202 lbs. – Wisconsin – Big strong physical. Good route runner that can get himself open. Lacks deep speed. Faced 2 counts of sexual assault, case was dismissed.

    137. Jason Strowbridge – IDL – North Carolina – 6′-4″ 275 lbs. – A gap jumper that lacks the size to hold his ground against double teams. Once he is into gaps, causes issues for the offense. A 34 DE or 43 DE is his future.

    138. Alton Robinson – Edge – Syracuse – 6′-3″ 264 lbs. – A toolbox full of length, athletic ability, bend and explosiveness. Decent against the run. Just needs to put it all together. 34 Edge with a high ceiling.

    139. Joe Bachie Jr. – LB – Michigan State – 6′-2″ 230 lbs. – a ILB with good instincts and decent range. Will pop you in the mouth when given the chance. Probably a 2 down ILBer in the NFL. Steroid suspension…

    141. Solomon Kindley – IOL – Georgia – 6′-3″ 337 lbs. – Another mammoth Georgia lineman. A OG with beastly power that loves to use it. Again, needs a lot of technique work. His hand usage is a mess.

    142. Joshua Kelley – RB – UCLA – 5′-11″ 212 lbs. – Strong, tough with good balance and hard to bring down, but lacks wiggle and HR speed. A one cut and go type of back.

    145. K.J. Hill – WR – Ohio State – 6′-0″ 196 lbs. – A good route runner with decent ability in the open field. Not a burner, but not a slug either.

    146. Colby Parkinson – TE – Stanford – 6′-7 252 lbs. – Big with a big wingspan, he will torture defenders in the middle of the field and the endzone. Not a great blocker and needs to get stronger.

    147. Jack Driscoll – OT – Auburn – 6′-5″ 306 lbs. – A smaller RT with a good athletic profile. In other words. Perfect for a zone scheme only. Needs to add power and some technique work.

    148. Antonio Gandy-Golden – WR – Liberty – 6′-4″ 223 lbs. – Crazy catches are littered throughout his highlights. Outstanding catch radius combined with flypaper hands make him a bigtime contested and 50-50 ball receiver. Not a great athlete or burner.

    150. J.R. Reed – S – Georgia – 6′-1″ 202 lbs. – An old school SS that works best moving forward as he doesn’t have the foot speed to be ultra rangy.

    151. Harrison Bryant – TE -Florida Atlantic – 6′-5″ 243 lbs. – Athletic with good hands and is a good route runner. He isn’t a blocker. His calling card is in the middle of the field.

    153. Javelin Guidry – CB – Utah – 5′-9″ 191 lbs. – Quick, oily and super fast. Size is going to limit him to slot/nickel/dime work.

    154. Hakeem Adeniji – OT – Kansas – 6′-4″ 302 lbs. – Another smaller LT that moves well and could slide into a zone scheme easily. needs to add power.

    155. Jacob Breeland – TE – Oregon – 6′-5″ 252 lbs. – An average at best athlete, but plays with an edge and isn’t afraid of contact. Good hands and can get deep. Decent inline blocker.

    156. Isaiah Hodgins – WR – Oregon State – 6′-4″ 210 lbs. – A good route runner for a man his size, good catch radius. Good hands. Not a deep threat.

    157. Geno Stone – S – Iowa – 5′-10″ 207 lbs. – Another kid from Iowa with smarts, instincts and lacks a big athletic profile. Works best in the box or zone coverage.

    158. Markus Bailey – LB – Purdue – 6′-1″ 235 lbs. – A Kiser clone in the fact that he is a smart. between the tackles, run stopping machine. Not enough athletic ability or speed to cover against the pass. 2019 knee injury muddies his water. 2 down ILB.

    159. Anthony Gordan – QB – Washington State – 6′-2″ 205 lbs. – Tough leader with an OK arm. Air Raid muddies the water, but he can manage a football team.

    162. Gabriel Davis – WR – UCF – 6′-2″ 216 lbs. – Exciting athlete with decent speed and plays with a bit of an edge. hands are meh, and he didn’t run a ton of different routes.

    163. D.J. Wonnum – Edge – South Carolina – 6′-5″ 258 lbs. – An above average athlete that can do a little of everything, but isn’t great at any one thing. Perfect size for 34 Edge with a great motor.

    164. Justin Strnad – LB – Wake Forest – 6′-3″ 238 lbs. – Smooth moving forward and backward, can run and cover and go sideline to sideline. Would rather run around blockers then stack and shed. Still learning the nuances so his arrow is pointing up. ILBer in an odd front or WILL in an even front.

    165. Raequan Williams – IDL – Michigan State – 6′-4″ 308 lbs. – Not a great athlete, but is strong, can stack and hold his ground and when he does get in the backfield, he finishes well. Needs to get more consistent on effort.

    166. Terence Steele – OT – Texas Tech – 6′-6″ 312 lbs. – Great hands and a powerful upper body, needs some sand in his pants. More of a man blocking guy, as he lacks movement skills for zone.

    167. Myles Bryant – CB – Washington – 5′-8″ 183 lbs. – another slot CB, plays faster than he ran, explosive movement skills.

    168. Lamar Jackson – CB – Nebraska – 6′-2″ 208 lbs. – Big, long and physical. Speed will give him issues. Press man CB.

    171. Essang Bassey – CB – Wake Forest – 5′-9″ 191 lbs. – a nickel/slot CB that gets after it and is a smooth enough athlete to mirror really well.

    172. Charlie Heck – OT – North Carolina – 6′-8″ 311 lbs. – As Alyo has stated, the son of a coach. Smart, good technique and excellent length. Needs to add some weight and power. Great developmental type of L/RT.

    173. James Lynch – IDL – Baylor – 6′-4″ 289 lbs. – Monster sack production from a guy with not a ton of athletic ability. Not twitchy and not explosive. Just average strength. Really just wins on an all-day motor and a give ’em hell attitude.

    174. Trevis Gipson – Edge – Tulsa – 6′-4″ 261 lbs. – an easy mover with decent burst and good flexibility. Can get bullied against the run. Developmental 34 Edge.

    175. James Morgan – QB – FIU – 6′-4″ 229 lbs. – A toolsy gunslinger with no fear. Not sure he has the tools above the neck to be a pro QB.

    176. John Simpson – IOL – Clemson – 6′-4″ 321 lbs. – A power blocker that can get over-extended at times, but will run you over. Lacks horizontal movement ability. Man power scheme fit.

    177. A.J. Green – CB – Oklahoma State – 6′-1″ 202 lbs. – Physical CB, sometimes too physical. Decent speed and a decent athletic profile.

    178. Harrison Hand – CB – Temple – 5′-11″ 197 lbs. – Smart, tough and has some ballhawk to him. Not the quickest CB. Zone CB

    179. Jalen Elliott – S – Notre Dame – 6′-0″ 205 lbs. – Slow, moderate athlete, but man he loves to blow up ball carriers. IMO a box safety or a big nickel LBer.

    180. Mitchell Wilcox- TE – South Florida – 6′-3″ 247 lbs. – Hard working combo TE that had good production, but won’t wow you as an athlete. I worry a bit about his hands.

    181. Michael Onwenu – IOL – Michigan – 6′-3″ 344 lbs. – An absolute tank in the trenches. Surprisingly decent footwork. Great power. Not a great mover. Man scheme.

    182. Trevon Hill – Edge – Miami – 6′-3″ 248 lbs. – Athletic, bursty edge with a nice pass rush. Needs to add weight to handle the run. Pass rush specialist early. 34 Edge.

    183. Binjimen Victor – WR – Ohio State – 6′-4″ 198 lbs. – Another big catch radius guy with nice hands. Not a deep threat, but is kinda dangerous in the open field.

    184. Carter Coughlin – Edge – Minnesota – 6′-3″ 236 lbs. – an undersized 34 edge rusher with some burst and fluid movement skills. Cannot match power with anyone, and his run defending suffers from that.

    185. Josiah Scott – CB – Michigan State – 5′-9″ 185 lbs. – A nickel back with good speed and decent toughness for his size. Good ball skills. Too small to survive on the outside.

    186. Jonathan Garvin – Edge – Miami – 6′-4″ 263 lbs. – 43 DE that can set a strong edge and keep everything inside. Not a ton of burst, and average athletically. Decent pass rush on physical traits alone.

    187. Scott Frantz – OT – Kansas State – 6′-5″ 300 lbs. – Mauler strength and a maulers mentality. Not a great athlete and needs to add weight.

    188. – Patrick Taylor Jr. – RB – Memphis – 6′-1″ 217 lbs. – big, powerful and hard to bring down. Not great feet and not very imaginative with the ball. Short yardage back IMO.

    189. Khalil Davis – IDL – Nebraska – 6′-2″ 308 lbs. – Not real long, but a quick first step and a good motor is where he wins. Not a great run defender due to his lack of length.

    190. Myles Dorn – S – North Carolina – 6′-2″ 205 lbs. – A decent all-around S with good work in the box and some solid pass defense stats. His lack of speed may limit his upside.

    191. Kendall Coleman – Edge – Syracuse – 6′-3″ 257 lbs. – Average athlete that is really still developing his skill set. Good motor and plays with nice physicality. Needs to be developed. Developmental 34 Edge.

    192. Jake Hanson – IOL – Oregon – 6′-4″ 303 lbs. – A zone scheme OC. A technician and good athlete, lacks the strength to trade power with defenders.

    193. Mykal Walker – LB – Fresno State – 6′-3″ 230 lbs. – Has played DE, Edge and ILB. So, he is a movable chess pc. I like him as an ILB in an odd front. Certainly knows how to blitz, can drop into coverage and will stick his nose in the fan in run support. Needs development time, due to so many position changes.

    194. Lavert Hill – CB – Michigan – 5′-10″ 190 lbs. – A hard-nosed press man. Lacks speed to stay with the fast WRs. Might work inside. Man only.

    195. Cheyenne O’Grady – TE – Arkansas – 6′-4″ 253 lbs. – A natural pass catcher with good route running. A willing blocker, although it isn’t a strength. Tough to bring down. His biggest issue is he was dismissed from the team for saying he was going to quit after the Bama game.

    196. – Michael Warren II – RB – Cincinnati – 5′-9″ 226 lbs. – Decent feet for his build (a bowling ball) with good power and contact balance. Not making you miss and isn’t a HR hitter. Another short yardage back IMO.

    198. Aaron Parker – WR – Rhode Island – 6′-2″ 209 lbs. – A good blend of physicality combines with his ability to go up and get it makes him a contested catch monster. He needs to develop his route running.

    200. Sewo Olonilua – RB – TCU – 6′-3″ 232 lbs. – Another short yardage specialist. Not fast, quick or nimble. He is a load to bring down and will wear you out.

    201. Kyle Murphy – IOL – Rhode Island – 6′-3″ 316 lbs. – Overpowered FCS competition, needs to add size and power to do that at the NFL level. He’s an easy mover with good footwork. Scheme versatile.

    202. Joe Reed – WR – Virginia – 6′-0″ 224 lbs. – A deep threat with good hands and can return in STs. Has some wiggle. Another gadget kid early as he learns to run routes properly.

    203. Stephen Sullivan – TE – LSU – 6′-5″ 248 lbs. – Massive seam buster that got lost in the shuffle of an all star offense. Long, middle of the field mismatch. Not a tremendous blocker.

    204. Benito Jones – IDL – Ole Miss – 6′-1″ 316 lbs. – a fire hydrant with very good strength. Won’t slide thru gaps but holds more than his own against the run. A true NT with a little pass rush push.

    205. Jaylinn Hawkins – S – California – 6′-1″ 208 lbs. – Smart, physical with some range. Not a ton and won’t wow you going sideline to sideline. Decent ball skills, but he has room for improvement.

    206. Trajan Bandy – CB – Miami – 5′-8″ 180 lbs. – Smooth footed DB that moves well in space and has OK speed. Lack of size and strength is an issue.

    207. Jauan Jennings – WR – Tennessee – 6′-3″ 215 lbs. – A runaway beer truck in the open field. Tough to bring down. Slow play speed and ran a 4.74 so that matches what you see.

    209. Kyahva Tezino – LB – San Diego State – 6′-0″ 235 lbs. – Plays the run well, decent athlete that can get to the sidelines and plays with patience and intelligence. Lacks length and quickness.

    211. Jace Whittaker – CB – Arizona – 5′-11″ 185 lbs. – a ballhawk with good instincts and good speed. Not very physical and lacks great size.

    212. Colton McKivitz – OT – West Virginia – 6′-6″ 306 lbs. – Big, strong RT prospect that has issues against speed. Can get out over his feet when he lunges at targets.

    214. Kindle Vildor – CB – Georgia Southern – 5′-10″ 191 lbs. – Ballhawking athletic CB with the size and footwork to work in any scheme. Not great in run support. Can be over-aggressive.

    215. Stephen Guidry – WR – Mississippi State – 6′-3″ 201 lbs. – Long with long arms and decent deep speed. Can go up and get it, or win over the top. Not a great route runner.

    216. J.J. Taylor – RB – Arizona – 5′-5″ 185 lbs. – Scat back with good receiving skills. Plays fater then he ran, but obviously not a between the tackles type.

    217. James Robinson – RB – Illinois State – 5′-9″ 219 lbs. – A hammer that did it all for ISU. Surprising speed can catch you off guard. not very shifty.

    218. Justin Herron – OT – Wake Forest – 6′-4″ 308 lbs. – A OG in the NFL. Good pass blocker with decent footwork, has trouble trading power in the run game. Zone scheme OG.

    219. Reggie Robinson II – CB – Tulsa – 6′-1″ 205 lbs. – Long with decent athletic profile, does his best work in a zone and things are in front of him. Nice production. Modest athlete.

    220. Tyrie Cleveland – WR – Florida – 6′-2″ 209 lbs. – Long and fast. Never ran a diverse route tree, but he can eat up a DB in a hurry. Will need some development.

    221. Jon Runyan – OT – Michigan – 6′-4″ 306 lbs. – I think he moves inside to OG. Son of an NFL OT. So he is smart. Good athlete but lacks strength. zone scheme OG.

    222. Tipa Galea’i – EDGE – Utah State – 6′-5″ 235 lbs. – An explosive, oily, easy mover. Needs to add mass if he wants to hold up against the run.

    223. Nigel Warrior – S – Tennessee – 6′-0″ 190 lbs. – Vols played him everywhere from what I saw. So he can do some of everything. Good athlete, good run defender for hsi size. Lack of ball production is a concern.

    224. Nevelle Clarke – CB – UCF – 6′-1″ 190 lbs. – I called him a mini Ramsey. Plays with a swagger and a ballhawks mentality. Great size for a CB. Easy mover. Needs to add strength and some weight to reach his full potential.

    225. Salvon Ahmed – RB – Washington – 5′-11″ 197 lbs. – Long speed despite what he ran at the combine. Decent wiggle in the open field. Due to size, a 3rd down back only. Lacks power and vision.

    226. James Proche – WR – SMU – 5′-11″ 201 lbs. – Natural hands and just catches everything. Smooth athlete, with great college production. Not a burner. Needs to work on route running.

    227. Cameron Brown – LB – Penn State – 6′-5″ 233 lbs. – Long for a LBer. Also raw. Can cover a ton of ground quickly and goes sideline to sideline. Not great in coverage. Not sure his position fit. 43 OLB or maybe add 15-20 lbs and make him a 34 edge?

    228. Sean McKeon – TE – Michigan – 6′-5″ 242 lbs. – A combo TE that can block in line and be used as a pass catcher. Not the most dynamic route runner, or athlete, but he competes hard. Good 3rd TE for a roster.

    229. Cole McDonald – QB – Hawaii – 6′-3″ 215 lbs. – An absolute howitzer of an arm. Good NFL size. A rhythm passer that loves getting the ball deep. Everything breaks down once he is off schedule.

    230. Quez Watkins – WR – Southern Miss – 6′-0″ 185 lbs. – Will take the top off a defense. No idea how to run a route, gets open from DBs being scared of being ran by. Electric in the open field. Needs to add some good weight.

    231. Bravvion Roy – IDL – Baylor – 6′-1″ 333 lbs. – Not your typical NT. He can dominate against the run, but has some juice to get after the QB (6 sacks this year) Short length will limit his upside.

    232. Kamal Martin – LB – Minnesota – 6′-3″ 240 lbs. – A 34 ILB that fills that downhill run plugger role that is tight hipped and lacks the range to work 3 downs. Will stick you when given the chance.

    233. Grayland Arnold – CB – Baylor – 5′-9″ 186 lbs. – Nickel CB with great ball production. Smooth lower body makes him sticky, has a ballhawk mentality. Lacks size to hold up on the outside.

    234. Trey Adams – OT – Washington – 6′-8″ 318 lbs. – Power blocking scheme only, once a top 25 pick, now maybe undraftable due to multiple injuries. Carries bad weight. A better athlete then mauler so his skill set doesn’t match his power (or lack thereof)

    235. Charlie Taumoepeau – TE – Portland State – 6′-2″ 240 lbs. – Literally a move TE. He played H-back, RB, TE, WR for Portland State. So he can block and catch and be a nice depth piece. Nothing athletically extrordinary.

    236. Darryl Williams – IOL – Mississippi State – 6′-2″ 304 lbs. – A OG/OC prospect with decent power and good technique. Needs to add some power. A tad stiff movement wise. Developmental depth for a power blocking team.

    237. Tyler Clark – IDL – Georgia – 6′-4″ 300 lbs. – nice get off with good hand usage to keep himself clean. Kinda frenetic, and will wash himself out at times. Good power.

    238. Levonta Taylor – CB – Florida State – 5′-10″ 190 lbs. – a CB turned safety, smooth lower half and good speed and lack of strength make him an ideal zone fit, either as a nickel or S. had back problems in the past.

    239. Kalija Lipscomb – WR – Vanderbilt – 6′-0″ 207 lbs. – Good route runner with reliable hands. Just an OK athlete and not a burner.

    240. Tyler Huntley – QB – Utah – 6′-1″ 205 lbs. – A real athlete with the ball in his hands. Can scramble, throw on the run and generally work his way around in the pocket. Accuracy is OK. Pretty good arm strength. I don’t think he can read a defense yet.

    241. Stanford Samuels III – CB – Florida State – 6′-1″ 187 lbs. – Long and a bit clumsy. Would be a good zone CB with some developmental upside.

    242. Robert Landers – IDL – Ohio State – 6′-1″ 285 lbs. – A 34 DE that lacks the usual length. Strong with a good burst. Decent athlete. At his best in a straight line.

    243. Shyheim Carter – S – Alabama – 5′-10″ 194 lbs. – A CB/S that was used as a hybrid 3rd safety for the Tide. Could be a movable piece in the secondary. Not overly fast or athlete. Declined to test at the combine reinforcing that idea.

    244. Freddie Swain – WR – Florida – 6′-0″ 197 lbs. – Good athlete with good hands and good speed. Not a very nuanced route runner and lacked college production. Punt returner bonus.

    245. Mohamed Barry – LB – Nebraska – 6′-1″ 245 lbs. – A bull in a china shop ILBer with sideline to sideline athleticism. Tough and strong just kinda running around out there hitting things and overrunning other things…

    246. John Reid – CB – Penn State – 5′-10″ 187 lbs. – A physical press man CB that due to lack of size will end up being a Nickel Back. Average speed to match his average athletic ability.

    247. Jordan Fuller – S – Ohio State – 6′-2″ 203 lbs. – A single high safety that is too slow to play single high in the NFL IMO. Racked up a ton of tackles and loves to hit. I like him as a depth/3rd safety with plenty of upside in the box.

    248. Darius Anderson – RB – TCU – 5′-10″ 208 lbs. – A tough little runner with plenty of takeoff, lacks the top end to be a HR threat and lacks the size to be a between that tackles guy.

    249. Derrek Tuszka – Edge – North Dakota St. – 6′-5″ 251 lbs. – A 43 end that will transition to a standup 34 edge. Tough, strong and can hold up vs the run. Great pass rush production. Decent athlete, but lacks flexibility to bend around the edge.

    250. Rodrigo Blankenship – K – Georgia – 6′-1″ 197 lbs. – He kicks footballs and I love his nerd glasses. I dare you to find that kind of draft analysis anywhere but here. LOL

    Agamemnon

    April 23, 2020 at 6:43 pm #113963

    In reply to: tweets … Rams, & NFL … 4/21 thru 4/23

    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Gary Klein@LATimesklein
    McVay: “We’ve got a nice opportunity to be patient on Thursday, and then Friday will be an exciting chance for us to get four picks off the board. But you know Les Snead. He’s a wheeler and dealer, you never know.”

    Anyone care to guess: In what year will Sean McVay make an NFL first-round pick as a head coach for the first time?

    Myles Simmons@MylesASimmons
    You know, having covered the Rams at draft time for the last five years… I am *really* not used to having a lot of things to do at the top of the draft on Thursday night.

    April 23, 2020 at 11:13 am #113958

    In reply to: Chloroquine, other approaches

    Avatar photonittany ram
    Moderator

    Link: https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/hydroxychloroquine-not-looking-good-for-covid-19/

    We have been tracking the story of the hype surrounding hydroxychloroquine over at Science-Based Medicine, but there is a brief follow up I wanted to comment on. The short version of the story so far is that one very bad French study claimed to show dramatic reduction in detected virus in those treated. This study, however, was not only preliminary, it was a horrible study, so much so that the results are uninterpretable. The big problem was that it did not count patients who became too sick or died. That is a classic way to make a treatment look better than it is. The author is also a climate change denier who initially mocked China for taking steps to mitigate Covid-19. He does not exactly have street cred within the scientific community.

    But that one horrible study from a sketchy researcher was enough to spark media hype, at least in certain circles, and capture the attention of a president apparently desperate to make this problem go away. Amid the fear of a pandemic, that was a toxic combination. The notion that hydroxychloroquine (with our without the antibiotic, azythromycin) might fight the SARS-Cov2 virus is not implausible. But most things in medicine that are “not implausible” don’t work out. We need high quality clinical science to ultimately tell.

    The big question always is – what is the risk vs benefit? Hydroxychloroquine and Azythromycin both have the same potentially deadly side effect, prolonging the QT interval of the heart, which increases the risk for sudden cardiac death. This is a manageable side effect in the right setting, but is potentially serious. This is not a good drug or combination to be taking just on the chance it might help.

    The entire episode is a good reason to remind everyone why science-based medicine is so important, the nature of clinical research, and the pitfalls of falling for preliminary data. After that initial terrible study there were two more preliminary studies, the kind that are done to see if there is any potential for the treatment that deserves more rigorous study. An open-label study in China found no benefit from hydroxychloroquine. There was also a French study attempting to replicate the results of the original study, and could not. They also found no benefit from the drug – no reduction in the virus, directly contradicting the original study.

    But perhaps most devastating is the most recent study to show results – this was a VA retrospective study comparing patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, hydroxychloroquine + azithromycin, and just usual care. They found no benefit on any measure for those treated with the drugs. However, those treated with the drugs were twice as likely to die:

    Rates of death in the HC, HC+AZ, and no HC groups were 27.8%, 22.1%, 11.4%, respectively.

    That is a huge red flag, the kind of preliminary finding that could kill the prospects for a new drug. That is exactly the reason that small preliminary studies are done, to make sure the treatment isn’t killing people before doing a larger study. Even these results are not the final word, however. This is a retrospective study, which means subjects were not randomized. It is therefore possible that sicker patients were given the drugs, for example. But we can look at all the preliminary data we have so far and conclude that it’s not looking good for the prospects of hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for Covid-19. Further, this drug has a serious potential side effect that may actually increase the risk of death for those given the treatment.

    Certainly, this is not the stage when this drug or combination should be hyped or recommended. It is nothing less than dangerously reckless to do so. Further, hydroxychloroquine is a proven treatment for some autoimmune diseases, like Lupus, and some patients who rely it are finding it difficult to get the drug because demand has spiked due to the hype. It’s pretty much a lose-lose all around.

    At this point we do need a double-blind randomized placebo controlled trial of hydroxychloroquine in Covid-19 to get some rigorous evidence. One solid negative trial, however, should end it. If the results are promising, then further study should be done. There would be many finer questions about dose, who should get the drug, who should not get it, etc. But at this point the odds are in favor of this treatment not working out, and in fact being harmful. No one should be taking this drug for Covid-19 outside an approved clinical trial.

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