: FootballOutsiders: Dallas @ LA Rams preview/projection
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2019/nfc-divisional-round-preview
To a large degree, Dallas’ 24-22 victory over Seattle in the wild-card round played out as we projected it would in our preview last week. The Cowboys dominated in terms of total yards, first downs, and time of possession, but still found themselves in a close contest because they lost the turnover battle and gave up too many explosive gains on play-action passes. The one area where we were wrong — and, in hindsight, the biggest reason Dallas won the game — was that the offense played well in the red zone. Yes, K.J. Wright did end one scoring drive with an end zone interception, but each of the Cowboys’ other three trips inside the 20 ended in touchdowns. That was critical in a game that ended with such a narrow margin of victory.
The Los Angeles Rams know something about narrow margins of victory themselves — they went 6-1 this season in games decided by eight points or less. Mind you, they also went 7-2 in games decided by nine points or more, so it’s not as if they reached the postseason on a fluke. This comes on the heels of an 11-5 record in head coach Sean McVay’s debut in 2017. No team has won more regular-season games than the Rams in the last two years, but the only postseason contest they have to show for it so far is a 26-13 loss at home to the Falcons in which they never took the lead. Now they’re playing at home again, but even with a bye there’s a sense of disappointment around this team — they could have clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but came up short in back-to-back losses to the Bears and Eagles in December. Since McVay was hired, this has been one of the NFL’s best teams, but in the minds of many onlookers they still have to prove they can win “when it counts.”
In that aspect, McVay has something in common with Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett. Though he has had just one losing record in nine seasons in Dallas (including a 5-3 record as an interim coach in 2010), Garrett didn’t win a playoff game until his fifth year, and didn’t win his second until last weekend’s triumph over Seattle. The winning coach on Saturday night will be leading his team to the NFC Championship Game for the first time.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
The following statements seem contradictory, but they are both true:
Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald, the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year award, led the league with 20.5 sacks.
By DVOA, the Rams have the worst defense of the four remaining NFC teams.
That’s not a ringing endorsement of Donald’s teammates and coaches, but it’s factual nonetheless. Donald had the most sacks ever by a player at his position (unless you want to count Reggie White or J.J. Watt as defensive tackles), and if anything that undersells his ability to disrupt opposing passing attacks. Donald also led the league with 62.5 pressures. Nobody else had more than 50. Donald was likewise tops in the league in both quarterback hits (41) and total tackles for loss (25). None of this is good news for a Cowboys team with two players — Joe Looney and Xavier Su’a-Filo — who were among the top 20 in blown blocks by interior offensive linemen according to Sports Info Solutions charting. (Su’a-Filo missed the Seattle game with an ankle injury and is questionable to play against the Rams.)
Yet despite Donald’s nigh-unstoppable presence, the Rams finished just 19th in defensive DVOA, ninth against the pass and 28th against the run. Donald had exactly half of the team’s 41 total sacks, and L.A. finished 19th in adjusted sack rate. They did lead the league with a pressure rate of 36.0 percent, but that’s almost entirely due to Donald — none of his teammates had even half as many pressures as he did. The Rams defense ranked 20th or worse in completion percentage, yards per pass, yards per completion, and touchdown rate by opposing quarterbacks. They did intercept 18 passes, tied for third-most, but in between the highlights this defense was nothing special when the ball was in the air.
If L.A.’s pass defense was erratic, their run defense was downright shoddy — they failed to make the top 20 in any of our run defense metrics. Their worst category was open-field yards, where they ranked 27th, which means they were vulnerable to big plays.
If all of this sounds like doom and gloom for the Rams, let’s remember that they are playing the Cowboys, not the Chiefs. The Cowboys offense had a DVOA of 8.0% in the Seattle game. That’s good, but modest — ten offenses had a better DVOA over the full season. For the Cowboys, however, it was excellent, a mark they reached only four times in the regular season. In this matchup between a resistible force and a moveable object, does either team have an edge?
The most obvious advantage the Cowboys have is Ezekiel Eilliot. Beyond the most obvious benefit of a handoff — Donald can’t harass Dak Prescott if Elliott has the ball — it’s in the running game where the Rams struggled most. Mind you, Dallas’ own rushing attack was hardly overwhelming (19th in rushing DVOA), but this is still where the Rams are most vulnerable. Remember all those run defense stats where the Rams ranked in the bottom half of the league? Well, the Cowboys offense was in the top half of the league in those same categories. They were most effective running to the middle of the field, ranking sixth, 10th, and eighth in ALY on runs to left tackle, middle, and right tackle, respectively. Surprisingly, despite the presence of Donald and Ndamukong Suh, the Rams ranked 21st, 13th, and 14th on runs to those same areas.
When it does come time to pass, we might see a lot of Prescott outside the pocket. As we’ve established, the Rams have a clear edge on the interior, but their sack leader amongst perimeter players was Samson Ebukam, who had only three. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have good tackles, particularly Tyron Smith, who was just elected to his sixth Pro Bowl. Prescott is capable of playing well outside the pocket — he averaged 6.5 yards per play outside the pocket this year, including scrambles and sacks — so rollouts and bootlegs might be a good method to avoid Donald before he has a chance to get into the backfield.
The Rams’ cornerbacks have some weird charting numbers, largely due to the injuries that knocked Aqib Talib out for half the season. Marcus Peters was their only player with enough targets to qualify for our pass coverage leaderboards, but his numbers were ugly — he allowed 9.7 yards per target, 80th out of 85 qualifiers, and his success rate of 49 percent was just 56th. Talib’s numbers (8.4 yards per target, 52 percent success rate) were nothing special either, but it’s worth noting he was targeted just 23 times in eight games — teams clearly avoided him. Troy Hill, who started when Talib was hurt, had a better success rate (56 percent) than either Peters or Talib, but when he did get beat, he was beaten savagely, giving up 10.6 yards per target. Finally there’s nickelback Nickell Robey-Coleman, who had an exceptional year — his 4.4 yards allowed per target and 67 percent success rate were both good enough to lead the league, but with only 39 targets he didn’t qualify for our leaderboard. Regardless, his matchup against Cole Beasley could be a critical one.
While the individual numbers for L.A.’s corners paint a murky picture, their team totals show more strengths and weaknesses, and that could be good news for Amari Cooper. The Rams were 28th in DVOA against No. 1 receivers, and they gave up 82.7 yards per game against No. 1s; only two other teams gave up more. (Those two teams, the Saints and Eagles, are playing in the NFC’s other semifinal, so a big game for Cooper here could lead to another big game next week.)
To get the most out of Cooper, Dallas should line him up to the left side of the field. The Rams were 24th against passes to the offense’s left and 28th on throws up the middle, but second in DVOA on passes to the offense’s right. The Rams shuffled their defensive backs all over the place, but it will likely be Talib holding down that side more often than not this weekend — he was not listed as the primary defender on a single pass to the offense’s left this year.
WHEN THE RAMS HAVE THE BALL
Fresh off a win over the Seahawks, the Cowboys must now prepare for an offense that is similar in some aspects, but clearly better. The Rams used play-action on 34 percent of passes, the only team to use it more than Seattle (and they were better with it too, 9.0 yards per play to 8.8). The Seahawks loved to throw it deep, but Jared Goff actually threw more deep balls than Russell Wilson did, 115 to 102. The Seahawks ran more frequently than anyone outside of Baltimore, but the Rams were better at it, finishing third in rushing yards and first by a lot in rushing DVOA. While Seattle used a rotation of running backs, the Rams leaned heavily on Todd Gurley — until Gurley went down at the end of the season and C.J. Anderson ran wild in his place, to the tune of 7.0 yards per carry and a 40.1% DVOA. The biggest difference is that while most of Seattle’s good passes were long bombs to Tyler Lockett, the Rams have a diverse arsenal of targets — Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Josh Reynolds can all beat you at receiver, as can Gurley at running back or Gerald Everett at tight end. That will be a big help against a Dallas defense that ranked sixth or better against No. 1 and No. 2 wide receivers, but 19th or worse against other wideouts, tight ends, and running backs.
The real stars, though, are on the offensive line, which is likely the best in the league. The quintet of Andrew Whitworth, Rodger Saffold, John Sullivan, Austin Blythe, and Rob Havenstein started every game for L.A., and the results were spectacular. The Rams were first in the league in adjusted line yards and second-level yards, and second in stuff rate; they deserve extra credit because the offense didn’t miss a beat when Anderson took over for Gurley. They were also stellar in pass protection, ranking sixth in both adjusted sack rate and pressure rate allowed. Per Sports Info Solutions charting, the Rams did not have a single player in the top 60 in blown blocks. As we covered last week, the Cowboys are stout in the front seven, but they’ll likely be outmatched here — Dallas ranked third in adjusted line yards and fifth in stuff rate, but was in the middle of the pack in our other run defense metrics. They could also have a problem with missed tackles — safety Jeff Heath was second in the NFL with 21 broken tackles, and linebacker Jaylon Smith was also in the top 10 with 18.
While L.A.’s rush offense was the best in the league, their pass offense was merely very good. They ranked fifth in team passing DVOA, and Goff was sixth in both DYAR and DVOA among quarterbacks. Considering the Cowboys were just 16th in pass defense DVOA, this looks like a total mismatch. If there’s a concern for the Rams offense, it came in a three-game slump against Detroit, Chicago, and Philadelphia. By pass offense DVOA, they were three of the Rams’ four worst games of the season. In that stretch, Goff completed just 55 percent of his passes for less than 6 yards per throw, with one touchdown, six interceptions, and seven sacks. In those three games, the Rams had a pass offense DVOA of -22.1%, 27th in the league for that timeframe.
Our old buddy Doug Farrar — who knows so much about offensive football that he wrote a book about it — said there were serious problems with the Rams offense when he wrote about them for USA Today in November:
When you have a quarterback making this many repetitive mistakes that basically amount to giving up, you have a major problem on your hands. Either Goff is playing scared, or McVay is telling him to throw the ball into the 300 section of the stadium whenever he doesn’t get a read he likes, but at this rate, he’ll have 20 throwaways a game. … And if it’s true that opposing defenses have figured out McVay’s machinations, it will be up to Goff to transcend that schematic battle with his own ability to improvise. Based on the evidence, there’s not a great chance of that happening.
Since that three-game slump, the Rams rebounded with dominant wins over Arizona and San Francisco to close out the year. Goff and the passing attack were much better in those games (68 percent completion rate, 8.3 yards per throw, five touchdowns, no interceptions, two sacks), but does that mean all the Rams problems have been solved, or that they had more to play for in the last two weeks than a pair of going-nowhere teams that had already packed it in for the season? That’s something to keep in mind as we go over some specific splits.
The biggest down-and-distance advantage belongs to L.A., which ranked second in second-down offense DVOA, while the Cowboys were 22nd in second-down defense. The difference is entirely due to passing — the Rams were fifth in second-down pass offense, the Cowboys were 28th in second-down pass defense. The Rams used two tactics on second-down passes. About 30 percent of the time, they tried a play-action bomb, completing barely half of their passes, but averaging 16.0 yards per catch. The rest of the time they threw short without play-action, completing more than two-thirds of their throws, but for only 10.9 yards per catch. Either way, they were effective, with 11 touchdowns, only three interceptions, and exactly 7.0 yards per play.
When it comes time to pass, Dallas should avoid man coverage. Goff averaged 9.3 yards per pass against man coverage, most among any full-time starter. But he was just 18th with 8.3 yards per pass against zone coverage. The good news for the Cowboys is that they only played man coverage 35 percent of the time, so they might match up better with the Rams than a lot of other teams would.
Splits get interesting on third downs. The Cowboys have a big edge on third-and-short, where they rank fifth while the Rams are 17th. Things look even on third-and-middle, but the Rams have a big edge with 7 yards or more to go, where they rank fourth and the Cowboys are 25th. This doesn’t necessarily mean the Rams should take a delay of game when third-and-1 comes up, but it does mean they will probably keep drives alive even if they fail on early downs.
Finally, don’t be surprised if this is a close game at halftime, and then the Rams pull away late. Both the Los Angeles offense and the Dallas defense were second in the league in first-half DVOA. The Rams, however, were second in the second half and first in late-and-close situations; the Dallas defense fell to 23rd in both categories.
SPECIAL TEAMS
The Rams had a bad year on field goals, but that’s largely because Greg Zuerlein missed five games early in the season with a groin injury. When he played, he was the same old Greg the Leg — he didn’t miss a field goal shorter than 40 yards, and his 87 percent conversion rate on field goals was higher than his career average. That edge should go to the Rams, as should the punting game, where Johnny Hekker and Jojo Natson outplayed the Dallas duo of Chris Jones and, uh, whoever was returning punts for them — Cole Beasley and Tavon Austin have split that job pretty evenly.
The Cowboys’ kickoff crew has struggled this year, but so has the Rams’ kickoff return team, so that’s a wash. It’s a wash the other way too, where the Rams’ kickers and Cowboys returners have both been middle-of-the-pack.
OUTLOOK
Sometimes, when a team slumps late in the year and appears to suffer from bad matchups against a specific opponent, it’s easy to overthink things in search for reasons to pick an upset. But consider that in their very worst game of the year, the 15-6 loss to the Bears, Los Angeles still had a total DVOA of -11.5%. The Cowboys had eight games worse than that, as recently as Weeks 15 and 16 against Indianapolis and Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Cowboys only had two games with a DVOA of 20.0% or higher (wins over the Saints and Giants), while the Rams had nine. The Rams at their worst could certainly lose a home playoff game for the second year in a row, but the Rams at their best will blow the Cowboys off the field. Likely, we’ll get something in the middle: a close game for a while that turns into a comfortable win for L.A. by the end of the night
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