Running the football still works

Running the football still works

Bucky Brooks

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000996948/article/running-the-football-still-works-plus-the-amari-cooper-effect

If you’re a devoted sportstalk radio listener, you’ve become quite familiar with the following proclamation in recent years:

The NFL is a passing league.

I certainly can’t squash that notion — the aerial evolution of this league is undeniable — but I’m here to tell you that making a concerted effort to run the football is still the best way to consistently win games.

Now, I know that opinion is an unpopular one in many circles, particularly with the analytics crowd, but the numbers continue to back up my old-school belief that routinely pounding the rock is what matters most down the stretch.

Don’t believe me? Just look at the following data …

From Weeks 11-13, teams that ranked in the top half of the NFL in terms of run-play percentage posted a combined record of 32-13 (71.1 winning percentage). On the flip side, teams that ranked in the bottom half of the league in this category logged a combined mark of 12-31 (27.9). Digging a little deeper with the help of my editorial staff, I discovered that 11 teams ran the ball on at least 45 percent of their snaps during Weeks 11-13. Those teams’ combined record? 23-7. That’s a robust 76.7 winning percentage. And six of those teams — the Ravens (who ran the ball a whopping 67.4 percent of the time during this span), Patriots (54.5), Texans (53.6), Seahawks (51.4), Cowboys (47.5) and Broncos (46.9) — didn’t lose a single game over the past three weeks. Considering that the teams that kept it on the ground on less than 40 percent of their snaps in Weeks 11-13 went a combined 11-29 (27.5 winning percentage), it is fairly obvious that consistently running the ball still equates to success in this league.

Now, I know the analytics crowd will immediately @ me suggesting that some of those numbers are inflated by the fourth quarter, when a team is ahead and intent on running out the clock. However, we crunched the numbers on the first three quarters, taking the final period completely out of the equation. Teams that ran on at least 45 percent of their snaps in Quarters 1-3 went 19-9 (67.9 winning percentage) in Weeks 11-13. Those that pounded it on 40 percent or less of their offensive plays? 12-22 (35.3).

It’s this kind of analysis that explains why we’ve recently seen Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer openly pleading with his offensive coordinator to run the ball more in games. The ex-defensive coordinator understands the impact of the ground attack on a defense, and he simply can’t understand why John DeFilippo abandons the run at times.

“The running game allows the offense to control the game and dictate the terms,” a former NFL defensive coordinator told me. “Stopping the run is the No. 1 priority of every defensive coordinator in the game. They will drop additional defenders in the box to make sure teams can’t run the ball. If an offense consistently hands the ball to the back, they can force defensive coordinators to call certain coverages, particularly eight-man fronts with single-high coverage, to take advantage of matchups on the outside.

“The threat of the run also makes play-action more effective because linebackers overreact to the sight of the ball being handed to the back and that creates big windows in coverage. The mere threat of the running game creates chaos. … That’s why good offensive coordinators focus more on rushing attempts than yards, because it is all about setting up bigger plays in the passing game with play-action and using a persistent running game to wear down the defense.”

Think of the running game like a boxer’s jab. You’re not throwing the jab to knock the opponent out; you’re using it to set up the big right-hand shots that lead to knockdowns. When you run the ball early and often, defenses have to respect any and all play fakes, thus spawning bigger plays in the passing game off play-action passes. The running game sets the table for devastating vertical strikes.

There’s even more benefit to running the ball in today’s game, with more teams gearing up their defenses to get after the quarterback. As defensive coordinators put more pass rushers, undersized linebackers and extra defensive backs on the field, they are leaving their units more vulnerable to the ground attack, particularly with offenses using more “12” (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) and “13” (1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR) personnel packages these days. The addition of more “bigs” on offense challenges undersized defenders to get off blocks and make tackles in space — quite difficult, as most defenders in today’s NFL have rarely been trained to take on old-school runs (power, counter and isolations) at the lower levels (high school and college), due to the proliferation of spread offense. With linebackers and defensive backs lacking the size, strength and knowledge to handle the physicality of the running game, teams committed to playing smash-mouth football enjoy a significant advantage in today’s game (SEE: Baltimore, which has posted a 3-0 record since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback).

“Guys don’t know how to get off blocks,” the former NFL defensive coordinator said. “Defenders aren’t taught how to take on blockers in the hole in college because there aren’t many teams using a fullback or playing old-school ball on that level. Not to mention, there aren’t many teams playing that way in the pros.

“When defenses face a team that runs it right at you with a lead blocker or jumbo personnel on the field, it can be problematic, because guys don’t know how to deal with it.”

That’s why defensive-minded head coaches like Pete Carroll and Bill Belichick have increasingly relied on the running game this season, despite most of the league skewing toward a pass-heavy approach. With a few offensive gurus like Sean Payton also reaping the benefits of running the ball early and often, it is only a matter of time before observers realize “ground and pound” is far from dead. In fact, it remains a highly effective way to stack up Ws.