defense in the era of holding

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  • November 18, 2018 at 10:19 am #94031
    Avatar photozn
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    What this does is alter what a defense does, it doesn’t eliminate defense (not that anyone said it did). Now, you want to disrupt as many series as you can with sacks and pressures, which decreases scoring. This means that you are looking for a “big play” defensive series and aren’t necessarily counting on dominating every series. You do the “big play” D series enough and you have a chance to win.

    There is a direct correlation between sacks and subtracting points. Sacks tend to stall drives, stalled drives means fewer points.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2017/08/01/the-value-of-a-sack-and-why-pass-rusher-is-the-nfls-second-most-important-position/?utm_term=.0387febc8fc4

    …more than 70 percent of four-down series converted for a first down or a touchdown in 2016. However, just one out of every six offensive drives (16 percent) in which the quarterback was sacked eventually got another set of downs, making it easy to see how much of a momentum killer a quarterback sack can be.

    link: http://settingedge.com/sackskilldrives

    939 out of 1,118 sacks (83.99%) last year resulted in a drive being killed. Conversely, just 179 out of 1,118 sacks (16.01%) resulted in the offense being able to bounce back and sustain their drive, even if just for one more set of downs. The difference is staggering. Defenses are almost 70% more likely to kill a drive after getting a sack than they are to surrender another set of downs.

    Another article on this, related directly to the impact of an interior rush:

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000935117/article/aaron-donald-is-key-to-the-rams-grand-plans-so-pay-the-man

    … in a time when defenses are facing more short passing attempts, interior pressure is associated with a 27 percent decrease in offensive conversions.

    November 18, 2018 at 11:10 am #94034
    Avatar photoAgamemnon
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    zn wrote:

    … in a time when defenses are facing more short passing attempts, interior pressure is associated with a 27 percent decrease in offensive conversions.

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000935117/article/aaron-donald-is-key-to-the-rams-grand-plans-so-pay-the-man

    The bottom line: wins and losses

    Teams with two above-average (or better) pass rushers AND two above-average (or better) corners have significantly higher win percentages, and they can succeed even with less dominant offenses. If you were to create “the average” offense, having all four of these defensive chess pieces would be worth between two and four wins, depending on schedule. There is a much bigger conversation here around how pass rushers and corners influence each other (and we’ll get to more of this in future pieces), but the data nets out such that having both produce at above-average and/or elite levels reinforces the efficiency of each part. Factoring in Donald, Suh, Talib and Peters projects to give Wade Phillips the weapons he needs to create a decided scheme advantage, even with unproven perimeter rushers.

    But it doesn’t work without Donald.

    I applied current rosters to the model and forecasted the entire 2018 season based on the trends from the historical findings. Then I looked at what happens with rushing, first downs allowed through the air, total yards surrendered and points allowed for the Rams with and without Donald. (I used the historical average as my “replacement player.”) Then I did the same for Fletcher Cox and Von Miller. While all three had a big impact on their teams, Donald being replaced with an “average player” changed the Rams’ season win total projection between 1.6 and 2.1 games, a range that is about 10 percent more than both of the other two top rushers.

    Then I went back and did the same thing for Suh, Peters and Talib. In this case, the range grew to between 16-30 percent more for Donald.

    The Rams seemingly went all in this season. On defense, the moves to bring in Talib, Peters and Suh seem to suggest they have set their expectations sky-high. However, Donald is the straw that stirs the drink in this strategy, and his production in context of the market shows why $20 million (or more) per year isn’t overpaying.

    Follow Cynthia Frelund on Twitter @cfrelund.

    Agamemnon

    November 18, 2018 at 11:16 am #94035
    Avatar photoInvaderRam
    Moderator

    i think the league should make offenses go 15 yards for a first down.

    let’s bring defense back.

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