and now the Goff July thread

from: Ranking divisions by quarterback: NFC North, NFC West top list

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000939509/article/ranking-divisions-by-quarterback-nfc-north-nfc-west-top-list

1) NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins

This is a significant jump up from last year’s rankings, but I am very comfortable with it. Rodgers is the most talented quarterback in NFL history. I love Green Bay bringing in Jimmy Graham to help in the red zone. Stafford has been fantastic the last few seasons, a true maestro in the clutch. And Detroit improved the offensive line and run game this offseason — that will provide the 30-year-old quarterback with some needed protection and balance. I think Trubisky will be this year’s Jared Goff, taking a major leap forward in Year 2 with a new head coach and more talent around him. Lastly, Cousins swings the pendulum in favor of this division. He’s the answer to the franchise-quarterback question for the Vikings.

2) NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals: Josh Rosen
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff
San Francisco 49ers: Jimmy Garoppolo
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson

From the bottom to the top: This is what happens when Sean McVay enters the picture for Goff — the QB goes from rookie disaster to sophomore Pro Bowler. And Year 3 will be even better than Goff’s terrific second season. Similarly, it’s going to be a special ride for the 49ers faithful, with a full season of Jimmy G and Kyle Shanahan. Garoppolo can carry San Fran to the playoffs. Josh Rosen is my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year. He’s a sensational talent and quick study, with solid weapons and defense flanking him in the desert. And of course, Russ is carving out a Hall of Fame-caliber career out in the Pacific Northwest. This guy’s magical, with or without an offensive line.

…

From weeks 1-8, Goff ranked 24th in Adjusted Completion percentage (excludes drops, throw aways, spikes, batted passes) from a clean pocket at 73.0 and a 100.5 passer rating. From weeks 9-17 he was first in both with an 84.8 Adj. comp. % and 122.5 passer rating https://t.co/Ha2Qk7skuG

— PFF LA Rams (@PFF_Rams) July 2, 2018

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Goff’s YIA w/ drops of 198 ranked 12th fewest, while his 3.8 percentage of dropped passes ranked fourth lowest. https://t.co/ptXJsQUgmN

— PFF LA Rams (@PFF_Rams) July 2, 2018

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For completions of 20+ yards, Goff ranked sixth among 23 QBs in adjusted completion percentage with a 42.1 https://t.co/kDZ8AvvIMm

— PFF LA Rams (@PFF_Rams) July 2, 2018

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Goff’s highest passer rating by route came on Post routes, which made up five percent of his throws. His 152.8 was well above the 96.6 #NFL average.

Find more information like this in our QB Annual:https://t.co/QUaSEqN4Gt https://t.co/pPQko9LF0c

— PFF LA Rams (@PFF_Rams) June 27, 2018

Rams QB Jared Goff was the fifth-most accurate quarterback in the league last season inside the 10-yard line pic.twitter.com/ZI32IASoUl

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) May 31, 2018

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Sticking with the inside of 10 yards them, Goff threw 13 of his TDs on passes of 0-9 yards. He also had a 5.8 TD % on such throws, compared to the 2.9 league average #Rams

See more information just this this in our QB Annual:https://t.co/883YNTkxho https://t.co/7rDO7Hd7gW

— PFF LA Rams (@PFF_Rams) June 1, 2018

In Jared Goff's one playoff game he had four Big Time Throws. Of the 11 QBs to play in last year's playoffs, only three of them had more than Goff (Brady, Foles, Brees). They had 28, 61, and 94 more attempts than he did, respectively. He also had zero Turnover-Worthy Throws #Rams

— Mike Cahill (@PFF_Cahill) July 22, 2018

Mike Cahill@PFF_Cahill
In Jared Goff’s one playoff game he had four Big Time Throws. Of the 11 QBs to play in last year’s playoffs, only three of them had more than Goff (Brady, Foles, Brees). They had 28, 61, and 94 more attempts than he did, respectively. He also had zero Turnover-Worthy Throws

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The terms “Big Time Throws” and “Turnover-Worthy Throws” are right out of the PFF glossary. This is them on all that:

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https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pff-qb-grading-most-effective-tool-there-is

What is a big-time throw?

In its simplest terms, a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value. While the value is easy to see statistically, the difficulty has more to do with passes that have a lower completion percentage the further the ball is thrown down the field. Therefore, the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.

The idea of the tight window can often bog people down as they ask, “Why do you want your quarterback to make riskier throws?” But it’s less about taking a risk and more about executing a pass that perhaps makes up for a deficiency on the offense. If a receiver can only create a tiny window of separation and the quarterback can put the ball in an optimum spot, he’s now created a big-play opportunity despite the receiver, not because of him. “Throwing receivers open” is a necessary skill at the NFL level, and big-time throws are just one way to capture it statistically. Sometimes difficult throws are necessary, because every offense will end up in unfavorable down-and-distance situations at times, and completing a regulation 3-yard out doesn’t help on 3rd-and-15.

Furthermore, we may see big-time throws under heavy pressure, turning a negative play into a positive, making a tight-window throw in the red zone where all passing windows are compressed, or perhaps throwing the beautiful 50-yard bomb down the field with good ball location. Hitting receivers #InStride is also important and more difficult to achieve the further the ball is thrown down the field. Well-thrown downfield passes that allow for further catch-and-run opportunities fall into the big-time throw category.

The levels of grading in the PFF system also allows for us to separate simple “catch opportunities” and “optimum throws.” Consider a 30-yard ‘go’ route where the receiver has one step of separation. A quarterback can complete that pass with varying degrees of ball location, either hitting him perfectly in stride, hitting him on his frame for an easy catch, or underthrowing it just enough that the defender can get back in the play, but with the receiver still having the advantage. Allowing the receiver to catch and run is the important part of this scenario to achieve the big-time throw, while simply throwing a “catchable” pass may earn a positive, but it’s a step below optimum ball location.

Tom Brady with #BigTimeThrows all over the place vs. the Steelers. Played better than the stat line showed pic.twitter.com/P00SW27PQQ

— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) December 19, 2017

[Side note: notice who Brady throws it to in that play. ]

What is a turnover-worthy play?

For quarterbacks, there are two ways to achieve a turnover-worthy play: throw a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or do a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.

Let’s start with the coulda/woulda/shoulda interceptions. Remember, we’re isolating the quarterback’s play in the PFF system and his grade on a given play will encapsulate his decision, timing and accuracy for the throw. With that in mind, there will be many times in which a similar throw will net a different result. Misreading coverage and firing a pass to a linebacker will result in the same grade whether he catches it for an interception or not.

There are a couple more key points to remember with turnover-worthy plays:

There are different levels of turnover-worthy plays

Not all turnover-worthy plays are created equally, and much like with big-time throws, the PFF system is able to capture the various levels of these poor throws. There’s a difference between a pass that is late and allows a defender a clean break on the ball versus the clear misread that is thrown right to a defender to the even more egregious pass right to a defender that is the easiest of catchable interceptions. All of those examples are “turnover-worthy” but not only are they at different levels when evaluating the quarterback’s play, but they also vary in how often they occur.

Not all INT-opportunities or fumbles are turnover-worthy

We all know that not every interception is the quarterback’s fault, but even in the case of turnover-worthy plays, there may be interceptions that are considered downgrades for the quarterback, yet not turnover-worthy. Examples of plays in which the quarterback assumes some fault, yet they are still considered “unlucky” to have been intercepted, include passes with poor ball location that get deflected up in the air or overthrows that end up as interceptions on plays where they’d normally fall incomplete. We can rely on our 2017 quarterback data to know that downgradable throws from the quarterback that are not considered turnover-worthy were intercepted 2.4 percent of the time, so while the quarterback gets his proper deduction, it’s not in that turnover-worthy category if it happens to be picked. Of course, there are even clearer pictures that can be painted, whether it’s a dropped pass or even a positively graded throw that is tipped up and intercepted, the quarterback will receive proper credit for his part in the play.

As for fumbles, there are many degrees of blame when it comes to the quarterback. The first thing to note is the quirkiness of NFL rules where quarterbacks will receive the “fumble” stat on poor snaps by the center, missed handoffs, dropped pitch plays and other situations where there’s simply no clear-cut evidence that they are to blame for the play. All of those situations are graded properly for context in the PFF system, despite the fumble stat.

There are also strip-sacks that are unavoidable and mostly due to something in the pass protection and those are plays where the quarterback may be absolved of the turnover-worthy label. However, fumbles in which the quarterback has a clear chance to avoid the ball coming free will result in a heavy downgrade and it will go into the turnover-worthy play category, even if the ball is recovered by the offense. Recovering fumbles is more luck than skill, and the quarterback will receive the turnover-worthy downgrade for putting the ball in harm’s way.

Not all turnover-worthy plays become turnovers

As the previous chart shows us, not all turnover-worthy plays will become turnovers. Using 2017 data, throws graded -1.0 were intercepted 34.7 percent of time, throws graded -1.5 were intercepted 58.3 percent of the time, and throws graded -2.0 were intercepted 83.3 percent of the time. They all fit into the turnover-worthy category despite different levels of interception probability, but there is a clear difference between the turnover-worthy throws and the throws graded -0.5 that result in an interception only 2.4 percent of the time. Therefore, it’s fair to put turnover-worthy throws in their own category, despite 48.2 percent of all turnover-worthy throws resulting in interceptions.

But you’re grading “what-ifs”

No, we’re grading what happened, not what that resulted in. There’s no “what if” when a quarterback makes a clear misread, there’s simply a varied result on the other side of the play: interception or no interception. Staying consistent with the grading regardless of the result is the most important thing when isolating players for evaluation, and that will always be our goal at PFF.