the economics of outside free agents in roster building

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3 articles. Just an interesting topic. If you just want to see the simple version, skip to the 2nd post in this thread.

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Report: Less than 10 percent of free agents play out long-term contracts

By Jay Busbee March 13, 2014

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/shutdown-corner/report–less-than-10-percent-of-free-agents-play-out-long-term-contracts-183953347.html

Everybody loves big-number free-agent contracts with multiple years and multiple zeroes — players can put a price on their worth, agents can demonstrate their own value, teams can show how much they’re willing to shell out to field a winner.

Of course, the truth is that in the NFL, few of those monster contracts ever pay out completely. Most players get cut long before they cash every allotted paycheck. The actual number, though, is pretty surprising.

The Big Lead http://thebiglead.com/2013/04/12/nfl-free-agency-analysis-only-8-of-free-agents-who-sign-deals-of-five-or-more-years-actually-make-it-that-long-with-team/ has crunched the numbers, and found that over a period from 2005 to 2010, only eight percent of the top 50 free agents across that time who signed deals of five-plus years ended up playing out their contract. Those players: Drew Brees, Reggie Hayward, Derrick Mason, Charles Woodson, and Adam Vinatieri, with Justin Smith, presumably on San Francisco’s roster at the start of next season, rounding out the list.

So how long did players usually last? Players with five-year deals lasted an average of 2.9 years, six-year deals lasted 3.1 years, and seven-year deals averaged 3.7 years. (Albert Haynesworth, pictured above, was released outright less than three years after the Redskins signed him to a seven-year deal, and by then three teams had given up on him.) The message, then, is clear: take your big contract and cut it roughly in half.

TBL breaks down the contract length by position, and this is one case where kickers and punters actually come out on top: they average more than 80 percent of their contract length. At the other end of the spectrum: wide receivers, safeties and offensive tackles, who each average less than half their signed contract length.

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Report: 72 percent of conference championship teams since 2009 acquired via draft or UDFA

By Neal Coolong on Mar 24 2014

http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2014-steelers-free-agency/2014/3/24/5541758/nfl-free-agency-2014-draft-success-steelers

OverTheCap.com writer Andrew Cohen had an interesting piece for RotoWorld Monday, stressing the value of organic growth on an NFL roster; or at least it’s perceived correllation between it and success over a sustained period of time. http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46602/59/salary-cap-notes-team-updates?pg=1

Using a team’s appearance in its respective conference championship game as a baseline, he reports that 72.3 percent of the 440 players on the 20 conference championship teams since 2009 – which includes the 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers – were acquired either through the draft or in undrafted free agency.

On the flip side, just 7.3 percent (32 out of 440) were acquired by those teams via a “substantial free agent contract,” which is defined as a deal of three years or longer, and $15 million or more in total money.

While that probably doesn’t concurrently prove both the higher likelihood of success of a team built via the draft as well as the lower probability of success of a team that spends a lot in free agency, it’s pretty hard to see it any other way.

The Steelers haven’t spent much in free agency in that time, and this year is no exception. According to Cohen, they’ve spent $25 million to “substantial” free agents – really just safety Mike Mitchell – which is the 15th highest mark in the league.

Denver is the highest with $124.5 million.

Cohen notes what is going largely unreported – Mitchell’s deal only contains $5.25 million of guaranteed money – a $4.75 million signing bonus, and a first-year roster bonus of $500,000. That only makes up 20 percent of the total contract, and his roster salary doesn’t escalate significantly until Year 3 of the deal. He’s scheduled to make $5 million a year from 2016-18.

The Steelers have kept a few free agents, and are less than $2 million from the salary cap as of Monday morning. With two free agents scheduled to visit this week – Arthur Moats today and LaGarrette Blount Friday – there’s either a few moves still pending, or they aren’t particularly interested in signing both players right now. Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert said Sunday from the league meetings in Orlando they’re open to an extension of the contract of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but it isn’t an immediate priority.

An extension could shave a few million off their salary cap this season.

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From Salary Cap Notes: Team Updates

Monday, March 24, 2014

http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/46602/59/salary-cap-notes-team-updates?pg=1

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Only four teams make a conference championship game each season, so let’s define those who make the NFL’s final four as successes. That means over the past five years, there’ve been twenty different “successful” teams (and yes, the 2011 49ers are classified as a different team than the 2012 and 2013 49ers). Looking at the 22 starters (offense and defense only) on each of the twenty “final four” teams from 2009-2013 leaves us with a sample size of 440 players

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How were these successful teams constructed? How often was a free agent acquisition a true difference-maker on one of these squads?

318 of the 440 players (72.3%) were either initially drafted or signed as an undrafted free agent by their respective team.

60 of the 440 players (14.3%) were either initially acquired through a trade or via free agent contract’s worth less than $2 million annually. Note the usage of the term “initially acquired.” Excluded are players who ultimately sign big deals after being acquired via trade or originally signing a short-term deal. The reason is that teams gain much greater intelligence on guys after they’ve played for already played for the franchise.

32 of the 440 players (7.3%) were initially acquired via “substantial” free agent contracts—deals that were a minimum of 3 years in length and worth at least $15 million in total money. I used 3 years and $15 million as an arbitrary baseline, as that that usually signals a legitimate investment (in terms of both time and dollar value) made in a player.

Just 8 of the 32 players who signed “substantial contracts” played out the entirety of the contract: Visanthe Shiancoe and Ben Leber of the 2009 Vikings; Drew Brees of the 2009 Saints; Kareem McKenzie and Antrel Rolle – who will play out the final year of his deal in this coming season – of the 2011 Giants; Justin Smith of the 2011, 2012 and 2013 49ers; Wes Welker of the 2011 Patriots; and John Abraham of the 2012 Falcons. Danny Amendola of the 2013 Patriots and Peyton Manning & Louis Vasquez of the 2013 Broncos are still playing under their current “substantial contracts.”[/quote]