off-season grades, projections, & power rankings

from Barnwell’s offseason report cards on Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwell2017GradesNFCWest/bill-barnwell-2017-nfl-offseason-report-card-free-agency-draft-nfc-west-arizona-cardinals-los-angeles-rams-san-francisco-49ers-seattle-seahawks

Los Angeles Rams

What Went Right

They made drastic changes to their coaching staff. Jeff Fisher was technically fired before the season ended, but I’m going to lump him in as part of the wholesale changes the Rams made. Teams often (at least anecdotally) try to hire the polar opposite of the head coach they’ve just fired, so it’s no surprise the Rams followed Fisher, a defensive-minded retread with a long history of middling teams, with Sean McVay, a 31-year-old offensive whiz kid taking his first head-coaching job at any level. McVay would be only the third-oldest player on this team, and he’s the youngest head coach in NFL history.

Hiring McVay is a high-risk, high-reward move. Think about the Broncos hiring Josh McDaniels, then 32, and how that revitalized the organization before things fell apart. It’s a welcome risk, given the franchise’s mind-numbing mediocrity over the past half-decade. It’s also worth noting that McVay (and not Kyle Shanahan) was the one who actually presided over Kirk Cousins’ sudden leap from turnover-prone problem to franchise quarterback in Washington, which could come in handy, given the organization’s investment in 2016 first overall pick Jared Goff.

The Rams also deserve credit for bringing in a veteran to work with McVay, hiring former Broncos defensive coordinator Wade Phillips. Phillips leaves Denver having led the Broncos to the league’s best DVOA each of the past two seasons. Phillips’ defenses have finished in the top six in DVOA four out of his past five seasons in the league and in the top 10 seven out of the past nine tries. The Rams fell from seventh to 15th in DVOA last year during Gregg Williams’ final year with the team. Phillips should be able to take a defense that often seemed to underachieve and quickly mold it into a dominant unit.

They signed Andrew Whitworth. The Rams kept Goff on the bench during the first half of his rookie season, but when they unleashed him for seven starts, the results were … awful. Pro-Football-Reference.com adjusts quarterback statistics for the era in which they played. Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, 53 first-round picks have thrown 200 passes or more during their rookie seasons. Here’s how Goff ranks out of those 53 players in several era-adjusted statistics:

No quarterback since the merger has posted a worse adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A+) in a 200-attempt season than Goff’s mark of 47 last year. Much of it can be blamed on Goff being sacked on an unreal 11.3 percent of his dropbacks last year. Only Russell Wilson, who was playing behind a Swiss cheese line, was pressured more frequently. Getting to play Goff and sack him three times probably tipped the sack title Vic Beasley Jr.’s way.

Part of this is unquestionably Goff’s fault, given that Case Keenum was sacked on only 6.7 percent of his dropbacks over nine starts. It’s also true that the Rams have had a porous offensive line for a while now, having struck out on both high draft picks (Jason Smith, Greg Robinson) and free agents (Jason Brown, Scott Wells, Jake Long). Goff might end up as a failure, but he’s guaranteed to disappoint if the Rams don’t build any infrastructure to support their second-year quarterback. You can’t evaluate a quarterback who expects to run for his life before every snap.

Andrew Whitworth is a bit of an incongruous signing for a team far from contention, given that he’s 35 years old. He also has been one of the best left tackles in football over the past few years, and the only exceptions during that stretch came when he kicked inside to play guard. Whitworth’s three-year, $33.8 million deal can realistically be a one-year, $12.5 million pact, and while there are no guarantees the Rams will somehow manage to get the most out of this offensive lineman, Whitworth is the best chance they have at protecting Goff’s blind side.

What Went Wrong

They didn’t do anything else with the offensive line. The only other addition the Rams made up front was center John Sullivan, who missed all of the 2015 season and took only 98 offensive snaps with McVay in Washington last year. They’re going to shift everyone else around and hope the line sticks, with Rodger Saffold in at left guard, Rob Havenstein moving inside from right tackle to right guard, and the wildly frustrating Robinson shifting from left tackle to right tackle.

Adding Whitworth might not have been enough. The Rams did make a useful buy-low move in signing Connor Barwin after the Eagles released him, but they chose to spend big in adding Bills wideout Robert Woods on a five-year, $34 million deal with $15 million in guarantees. Woods is regarded as one of the best blocking receivers in football, but blocking receivers don’t get paid premiums in free agency, and Woods simply hasn’t been very productive as a wideout. Woods could still improve, given that he’s just 25, but this is money that would have been better served going to offensive line help.

They didn’t lock up Trumaine Johnson. The Rams took some flak last offseason for choosing to retain Johnson, their former third-round pick, as opposed to Janoris Jenkins, who had the best year of his career in New York. While there was nothing wrong with choosing Johnson, the Rams’ plan went sideways when they were unable to re-sign him and were stuck franchising him for a second consecutive season. Johnson will have the second-largest cap hit of any cornerback in the league behind Josh Norman, and his $16.7 million salary only serves to increase the pressure on the Rams.

It’s hard to imagine the Rams justifying a $24 million franchise tag for Johnson next year, so they need to make their move. Johnson reportedly refused to sign a long-term contract with the Saints this offseason, which prevented the Rams from seriously considering a trade that would have sent him to New Orleans for a second-round pick. Adam Schefter’s report suggested Johnson wanted to stick around in Los Angeles for the long term, so it should be possible to make a deal, but the contract hasn’t come together yet. Johnson’s leverage and inflation will allow him to top the $40 million Jenkins got over the first three years of his deal with the Giants.

What’s Next?

Sign Johnson. The Rams are already talking with All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald, who will probably become the highest-paid defensive player in football the moment he signs an extension to stay in Los Angeles, but there’s no rush in locking him up. Donald is still two years away from free agency, and even if the Rams need to franchise him in 2019, they would owe him something in the range of $24.3 million over the next three seasons. Contrast that with Kawann Short’s new deal, which will pay him $52 million over the next three years. Unless the Rams get a stratospheric discount, it behooves them to wait at least one year before re-signing Donald.

Grade: B-

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2017/5/30/15713914/2017-nfl-playoffs-la-rams-no-seriously

ESPN is starting to put out some 2017 preview material. Today, they’re covering which team they think will make the playoffs after missing out last season (insider subscription required). Of the six experts they polled, two chose the Los Angeles Rams:

Dan Graziano, NFL Insider: I like the Los Angeles Rams. Coordinator Wade Phillips’ impact on the defense and head coach Sean McVay’s intelligence and energy will be enough to vault them to their first winning season since 2003. Also helping their case: The Cardinals are due for a downturn and Seattle’s ship looked a little leaky last year. Obviously, there’s some concern about how Jared Goff meshes with the new coaching staff and learns a whole new system. But I’ll give that staff and running back Todd Gurley the benefit of the doubt. Don’t underestimate the impact of veteran left tackle Andrew Whitworth on the offensive line, either.

Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: I’m driving the Rams bandwagon this year. OK, I guess it’s more of a minivan, but more folks should be hopping aboard once they realize Phillips’ phenomenal record of improving defenses in his first year as coordinator. (I wrote about that in detail here.) The offense isn’t going to be good, but there’s no way it will be as bad as last year. The 2016 Rams had the fourth-worst offense in the history of our DVOA stats, which stretches all the way back to 1987. The other teams in the bottom dozen improved by an average of three wins the next year, and three of those teams had winning records.

Schatz’s support isn’t all that surprising given that FO recently updated their mean projections that have the Rams at 8.2 mean wins this year. The sheer fact that 1⁄3 of the experts have the Rams making the playoffs though is what’s striking.

And perhaps the real takeaway is just how volatile projecting this season is.

You’ve got experts, quantitative and analytical and…well others, offering legitimate reasons to buy into an immediate revival of the franchise under new Head Coach Sean McVay. And then you have oddsmakers who have the Rams as underdogs in EVERY…SINGLE…GAME measured up against the odds that have the Rams as the second-longest shot to win the conference.

Really what this comes down to is a referendum on coaching. It partly depends on how much you think former Head Coach Jeff Fisher held the talent on the roster back and how quickly you think McVay can resuscitate the careers of some that talent that Fisher suppressed.

From QB Jared Goff to RB Todd Gurley to WR Tavon Austin to OL Greg Robinson, the offensive depth chart under Fisher featured a bunch of failed first-round picks. If McVay can capture a shred of improved production from that group while making good on the additions through free agency and the 2017 NFL Draft while facilitating a defensive improvement under Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips, you’re looking at a scenario in which the Rams could have the chance to end a 13-season run without a winning record.

It’s asking a lot of ducks to line up in a row, but hey. Crazier things have happened.