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I found a site that does some end game calculations. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi
If TBay had called a TO with 41 sec. left.
TBay lost 14 sec. because they didn’t use a TO. It costs them about 7% of their chance to win. As we shall see later, it could have cost them as much as 22%, because they didn’t use their 2 TOs.
If TBay would have had an extra play or 2 by using their TOs, the Probabitiy is 30.6 + 09.3 + 12.2 = 39.9 or 52.1%.I guessed that when TBay got the ball, they would have about a 25% chance to win. It was slightly higher than that, about 30%. The way the game when, each instance is a bit different, plus or minus, If TBay had use their TOs to the best advantage, their chances to win would have benn 50% or about a coin toss.
Agamemnon
I made a mistake in my last 2 images in the above post. I should reflected that it was the last play of the game or second last play. The decreases TBay’s winning percentage.
TBay could have been saving one TO, in case they got an offensive penalty. It would have saved the automatic 10 sec. run off. I think that came into play the last time we beat them.
What all this shows, is that you should bet on the team with the lead.
Agamemnon
This is even better. Go here and scroll down => http://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201609250tam.htm
You can scroll your mouse over the win probability graph and see the the exact % for any time during the game. 😉
This is better than Gamebook.
Agamemnonbad game management by tampa bay. they should have been able to squeeze out a couple more plays.
They should have used one at 41 secs. After that it is a bit problematic. It depends on how the game goes. Whether you want to call a run play or if you complete a pass in bounds or whether you commit an offensive penalty. But, normally, yes, you figure they would have gotten 2 more plays.
Agamemnon
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