Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Public House › The moonshot to cure cancer is doomed to failure
- This topic has 16 replies, 7 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 10 months ago by waterfield.
-
AuthorPosts
-
January 18, 2016 at 6:34 am #37589nittany ramModerator
Why a “moonshot to cure cancer” is doomed to failure
A few days ago, David Bowie died of cancer. This morning I learned that the actor Alan Rickman has died of cancer. You all know the rule of threes, right? It has been satisfied, because in his state of the union address Barack Obama announced that he was going to kill American biological research, with cancer. OK, maybe that’s a little strong: he was more devious about it. He announced a “moonshot” to cure cancer. It’s the same thing.
US President Barack Obama isn’t going quietly. He began his final year in office by announcing a “moonshot” to cure cancer in his State of the Union address to Congress on 12 January.
The effort will be led by vice-president Joe Biden, whose son Beau died of brain cancer last year.
“For the loved ones we’ve all lost, for the family we can still save, let’s make America the country that cures cancer once and for all,” Obama said in a soaring speech that otherwise offered few new proposals. Instead, the president spent most of the address looking back at his accomplishments over roughly seven years in office.
It’s not the “cancer” part of the proposal that is bad; it’s a terrible disease, and we should more to combat it. It’s two other words: “moonshot” and “cure”.Everyone admires John F. Kennedy’s ambition in setting a specific goal for the space program, way back in the 1960s. It was smart to focus. But here’s the difference: we knew where the moon was. There it is, 380,000km away, in a predictable orbit around the planet, and we had these technologies to fire off rockets that already contained the basic principles we needed to get to the moon. It was a nontrivial effort, but getting from here to there was an already specified problem.
Where is “cancer”? Can you even define the problem? Do you see a solution that you can reach by just throwing a lot of money at it and telling a team of doctors to fix it?
No, you can’t. Scientists who study cancer will even tell you flat out that cancer isn’t one disease, it’s a multitude of diseases. It’s more like a pattern of collapse of a complex structure, and there’s a million different ways it can happen. A “moonshot” is a terrible metaphor for how to approach the treatment of cancer.
We don’t know where we’re going, so what we need is more support of basic research — mapping the cell and genome, puzzling out the details of signaling, looking for unexpected new technologies for manipulating cells. When I hear “moonshot”, what I hear is “earmark”: we’re not going to see an expansion of basic research, we’re going to see a bigger share of the money going to translational research. We’ll build even more hidebound institutions that demand their share of the budget and then allocate it conservatively to more fully explore the same old dead ends.
So “moonshot” gives me the heebie-jeebies. What about “cure”?
I will make a bold prediction. There is no such thing as a cure for cancer. We are embarking on a quest for Hy Brasil, or Shangri-La, or the Lost City of Atlantis. It misunderstands the nature of cancer to claim there might be a “cure” out there.
You might as well launch a moonshot to end entropy. Or to defeat aging. Or to cure the plague of multicellularity that causes us so many problems. You are made up of populations of cells that are dividing — and it is the nature of your existence that cells can’t be static, passive blocks — and with each division, they accumulate errors. Inevitably. Unless you plan to cure thermodynamics, too, you can’t avoid the gradual generation of tiny errors. And eventually, one or a few of those errors will cross a critical tipping point and turn a cell cancerous.
Well, actually, there is a cure that will prevent that otherwise inevitable fate: you could die of heart failure or infectious disease first, or get hit by a bus. That’s what history tells us. As we fight back other causes of death, as we live longer and longer, the probability of cancer increases, because it is basically the default failure mode for the cell.
Now I know that sounds cynical and defeatist, but I’m not. I think there is a lot of hope in improving cancer treatment — we can get better and better at stopping the progression of the disease, and repairing the damage it causes, and developing cheaper treatments with fewer side effects. These are broader and more achievable goals than finding the magic “cure” that doesn’t exist. They also require broader scientific approaches than just giving lots of money to people — intelligent, qualified people — who are working specifically and narrowly on treating human diseases (although I also think we need to continue working on that kind of translational research, since that will give us progress in small steps).
But that’s why a “moonshot” to a “cure” bothers me: it’s the proposal of people with tunnel vision, who even so can’t see the target they’re aiming at, let alone find even the general direction they should point at.
I’m not the only one! Ars Technica objects for a different reason: sudden influxes of money into a field are indigestible. Slow steady growth is what you need to nurture scientific progress.
- This topic was modified 8 years, 11 months ago by nittany ram.
January 19, 2016 at 9:49 am #37653bnwBlockedI read this soon after you posted it and have thought about it a lot. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that a virus is the cause of most if not all cancer. Doubt the non empowered among us will ever see a cure since treatments are more profitable. Seems as though the cure business has dropped off a cliff the last 30 years.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
January 19, 2016 at 10:14 am #37654PA RamParticipantMaybe when you can get to the level of cellular repair with some sort of nanotechnology–maybe then you can talk about a “cure” but we seem far away from any of that. If we ever get there.
The book, “The Emperor of all Maladies” goes in to great detail on the history of cancer and where it has gone. And yes–if you live long enough–you will likely get cancer. It will happen. You may have a fantastic heart–great lungs–a lot of other positives—but cancer will get you if you outlive all that other stuff.
It’s very very complex and like the article says–not one thing.
I admire the effort and certainly more money for research is not a bad thing–connecting researchers together is a very good thing. But this will not be solved in any of our lifetimes–if ever. Still–it can get better. And there is nothing wrong with that.
"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick
January 19, 2016 at 2:48 pm #37659OzonerangerParticipantUnfortunately, I know a little about this subject. I lost my wife to breast cancer in September of 2014 and my sister in law is terminal.
The article and PA have a few things right. We are making advances. Some cancers can be cured, even metastatic- testicular, for example. The problem is, it’s not going to be a one-size-fits-all cure. That’s impossible. Seven billion unique examples of the species is another obstacle. Cancer presents and kills in so many different ways. And each patient is unique. Some can fight stage 4 for years. Others last weeks or even days. My wife died 28 days after her metastases was diagnosed.
I was happy to hear this news- I hope a “moonshot” approach is carried through to cures. Or at least bring it to the chronic level, just as we have accomplished with HIV\AIDS. I have visceral hatred this disease. For what it has robbed me and my family, as well as just about everyone one else.
January 19, 2016 at 2:54 pm #37660OzonerangerParticipant
I read this soon after you posted it and have thought about it a lot. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that a virus is the cause of most if not all cancer. Doubt the non empowered among us will ever see a cure since treatments are more profitable. Seems as though the cure business has dropped off a cliff the last 30 years.
This is so over the top wrong, I don’t know where to start. Treatments are unbelievably costly and do not present the profits for those companies that statins and dick pills do. It’s not even close. It’s an argument that’s used by charlatans pushing so-called “natural” cures.
January 19, 2016 at 5:17 pm #37663wvParticipantUnfortunately, I know a little about this subject. I lost my wife to breast cancer in September of 2014 and my sister in law is terminal.
The article and PA have a few things right. We are making advances. Some cancers can be cured, even metastatic- testicular, for example. The problem is, it’s not going to be a one-size-fits-all cure. That’s impossible. Seven billion unique examples of the species is another obstacle. Cancer presents and kills in so many different ways. And each patient is unique. Some can fight stage 4 for years. Others last weeks or even days. My wife died 28 days after her metastases was diagnosed.
I was happy to hear this news- I hope a “moonshot” approach is carried through to cures. Or at least bring it to the chronic level, just as we have accomplished with HIV\AIDS. I have visceral hatred this disease. For what it has robbed me and my family, as well as just about everyone one else.
I’m sorry about your wife,
and the situation with your sister-in-law, Ozone.Seems like all the middle-aged folks
on these boards have been touched
by death or disease.w
v
“The reality is that you will grieve forever. You will not ‘get over’ the loss of a loved one; you will learn to live with it. You will heal and you will rebuild yourself around the loss you have suffered. You will be whole again but you will never be the same. Nor should you be the same nor would you want to.”
― Elizabeth Kubler-Ross and John KesslerJanuary 20, 2016 at 1:11 pm #37733bnwBlockedI read this soon after you posted it and have thought about it a lot. It wouldn’t surprise me to learn that a virus is the cause of most if not all cancer. Doubt the non empowered among us will ever see a cure since treatments are more profitable. Seems as though the cure business has dropped off a cliff the last 30 years.
This is so over the top wrong, I don’t know where to start. Treatments are unbelievably costly and do not present the profits for those companies that statins and dick pills do. It’s not even close. It’s an argument that’s used by charlatans pushing so-called “natural” cures.
This topic is unfortunately more personal and immediate with you so I won’t press the issue other than to say my comment was directed towards treatments in some cancers that are now being found to be unnecessary in many cases since the disease is not the straight line progression we have been led to believe. Cancers can become benign and even vanish without treatment, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/27/health/27canc.html?_r=0
I apologize if my comment upset you.
The upside to being a Rams fan is heartbreak.
Sprinkles are for winners.
January 20, 2016 at 1:50 pm #37738znModeratorUnfortunately, I know a little about this subject. I lost my wife to breast cancer in September of 2014 and my sister in law is terminal.
The article and PA have a few things right. We are making advances. Some cancers can be cured, even metastatic- testicular, for example. The problem is, it’s not going to be a one-size-fits-all cure. That’s impossible. Seven billion unique examples of the species is another obstacle. Cancer presents and kills in so many different ways. And each patient is unique. Some can fight stage 4 for years. Others last weeks or even days. My wife died 28 days after her metastases was diagnosed.
I was happy to hear this news- I hope a “moonshot” approach is carried through to cures. Or at least bring it to the chronic level, just as we have accomplished with HIV\AIDS. I have visceral hatred this disease. For what it has robbed me and my family, as well as just about everyone one else.
My condolences on your loss, Ozone. I lost my sister to cancer last summer, so I have some sense of what this is like. Not much I can say but I genuinely am sorry for your family’s suffering and your losses.
January 20, 2016 at 4:47 pm #37753wvParticipantThis topic is unfortunately more personal and immediate with you so I won’t press the issue other than to say my comment was directed towards treatments in some cancers that are now being found to be unnecessary in many cases since the disease is not the straight line progression we have been led to believe. Cancers can become benign and even vanish without treatment, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/27/health/27canc.html?_r=0
I apologize if my comment upset you.
Well, I think its a pretty complicated subject when you
get to the “politics” of Disease and Western Medicine and Big Pharma
and that cluster of subjects. There are a lot of questions and issues
surrounding disease treatment in America.But then like you noted there is also the tragic
human, personal threads. A separate thing, indeed.w
vJanuary 20, 2016 at 7:14 pm #37763OzonerangerParticipantBNW, you didn’t upset me. I apologize for not being clear. I just get frustrated when I hear stuff like, for example, Big Pharma is suppressing a cure for profit. If that were the case, then the industry would not have made the strides we have seen with HIV. Now that disease was a cash cow if there ever was one, due to myriad associated diseases it spawns, including various cancers. Cancer is a tough, mean bastard. Just getting new drugs through Phase 1-3 clinical trials can cost a billion and of course may not prove efficacy or have legs to allow a patient to live just a few more months.
The other thing you mentioned, that cancer can go away by itself, untreated. That’s what’s known as spontaneous remission. This lucky group accounts for two percent of patients and doctors\researchers can’t explain it. If I were to get cancer, and most of us will if we live long enough, I wouldn’t leave it untreated. That’s just suicide. I followed two individuals on FB who decided to forgo SBM for quackery and woo. Like diet, Gerson therapy (juicing fruit and vegetable all day combined with coffee enemas) and holistic\naturopathic “medicine.” One died within the time frame for untreated BC, about 18-24 months is the median. The other is about to have a fungulating (sp) tumor burst from her skin. She’s treating it with black salve, which is like acid.
The charlatans I mentioned take advantage of patients like these to make a profit themselves (see Natural News for one) and there’s a special place in hell for those fuckers. As my wife’s caregiver and advocate, I did my D&D and was shocked at what is shilled out there (cannabis oil, essential oils, mistletoe, vitamin c IVs, veganism and laetrile, which has been re-branded as Vitamin B-17. To name just a few) to vulnerable, scared people. SBM cancer treatment -conventional- is not easy to endure. My wife did pretty well in her first go round. But she also thought juicing and a vegan diet would prevent recurrence. She read that somewhere. It didn’t.
Anyway, sorry for the rant. This -is- personal for me. And now, too, for my brother.
Thanks for the kind words, by the way, gentlemen.
January 20, 2016 at 10:02 pm #37773OzonerangerParticipantMy condolences on your loss, Ozone. I lost my sister to cancer last summer, so I have some sense of what this is like. Not much I can say but I genuinely am sorry for your family’s suffering and your losses.
[/quote]
And I yours, Zack. Like I said, cancer touches everyone. Prayers for your family.
Jeff
January 21, 2016 at 8:30 am #37789wvParticipantBNW, you didn’t upset me. I apologize for not being clear. I just get frustrated when I hear stuff like, for example, Big Pharma is suppressing a cure for profit. If that were the case, then the industry would not have made the strides we have seen with HIV. Now that disease was a cash cow if there ever was one, due to myriad associated diseases it spawns, including various cancers. Cancer is a tough, mean bastard. Just getting new drugs through Phase 1-3 clinical trials can cost a billion and of course may not prove efficacy or have legs to allow a patient to live just a few more months.
The other thing you mentioned, that cancer can go away by itself, untreated. That’s what’s known as spontaneous remission. This lucky group accounts for two percent of patients and doctors\researchers can’t explain it. If I were to get cancer, and most of us will if we live long enough, I wouldn’t leave it untreated. That’s just suicide. I followed two individuals on FB who decided to forgo SBM for quackery and woo. Like diet, Gerson therapy (juicing fruit and vegetable all day combined with coffee enemas) and holistic\naturopathic “medicine.” One died within the time frame for untreated BC, about 18-24 months is the median. The other is about to have a fungulating (sp) tumor burst from her skin. She’s treating it with black salve, which is like acid.
The charlatans I mentioned take advantage of patients like these to make a profit themselves (see Natural News for one) and there’s a special place in hell for those fuckers. As my wife’s caregiver and advocate, I did my D&D and was shocked at what is shilled out there (cannabis oil, essential oils, mistletoe, vitamin c IVs, veganism and laetrile, which has been re-branded as Vitamin B-17. To name just a few) to vulnerable, scared people. SBM cancer treatment -conventional- is not easy to endure. My wife did pretty well in her first go round. But she also thought juicing and a vegan diet would prevent recurrence. She read that somewhere. It didn’t.
Anyway, sorry for the rant. This -is- personal for me. And now, too, for my brother.
Thanks for the kind words, by the way, gentlemen.
I tend to agree on the ‘new-age cures,’ Ozone.
But then I don’t really know much about what the actual
research shows.I read a little book called “snake oil science” a while back
and it helped me understand that a LOT of alternative med-stuff
has never really demonstrated that its better than a placebo.Anyway, I’m glad you are posting here. I wish we could all go
back and have a ‘do-over’ on a lot of that ugliness that
tore the old board apart. Ah well.w
vJanuary 21, 2016 at 11:02 am #37805nittany ramModeratorBNW, you didn’t upset me. I apologize for not being clear. I just get frustrated when I hear stuff like, for example, Big Pharma is suppressing a cure for profit. If that were the case, then the industry would not have made the strides we have seen with HIV. Now that disease was a cash cow if there ever was one, due to myriad associated diseases it spawns, including various cancers. Cancer is a tough, mean bastard. Just getting new drugs through Phase 1-3 clinical trials can cost a billion and of course may not prove efficacy or have legs to allow a patient to live just a few more months.
The other thing you mentioned, that cancer can go away by itself, untreated. That’s what’s known as spontaneous remission. This lucky group accounts for two percent of patients and doctors\researchers can’t explain it. If I were to get cancer, and most of us will if we live long enough, I wouldn’t leave it untreated. That’s just suicide. I followed two individuals on FB who decided to forgo SBM for quackery and woo. Like diet, Gerson therapy (juicing fruit and vegetable all day combined with coffee enemas) and holistic\naturopathic “medicine.” One died within the time frame for untreated BC, about 18-24 months is the median. The other is about to have a fungulating (sp) tumor burst from her skin. She’s treating it with black salve, which is like acid.
The charlatans I mentioned take advantage of patients like these to make a profit themselves (see Natural News for one) and there’s a special place in hell for those fuckers. As my wife’s caregiver and advocate, I did my D&D and was shocked at what is shilled out there (cannabis oil, essential oils, mistletoe, vitamin c IVs, veganism and laetrile, which has been re-branded as Vitamin B-17. To name just a few) to vulnerable, scared people. SBM cancer treatment -conventional- is not easy to endure. My wife did pretty well in her first go round. But she also thought juicing and a vegan diet would prevent recurrence. She read that somewhere. It didn’t.
Anyway, sorry for the rant. This -is- personal for me. And now, too, for my brother.
Thanks for the kind words, by the way, gentlemen.
Very well said, Ozone, and I am very sorry for your loss.
A lot of woo surrounds the legalization of marijuana right now. Proponents are pointing to its curative powers over diseases including cancer. It’s total BS. Of course, it’s been established that marijuana can make you feel better and can lessen the uncomfortable side effects of chemo, but it will not cure your cancer.
I’m in favor of the legalization of marijuana (and maybe all drugs FWIW) but making false claims about its healing properties won’t help the cause and can harm a great number of patients who require real evidenced based treatments.
January 21, 2016 at 12:58 pm #37812PA RamParticipantI offer my sincere condolences, Ozone.
It’s a horrible disease and I feel for anyone who has been touched by it.
I also feel for anyone taken in my these quack cures. People are in a vulnerable state and reaching out for anything and these con artists take advantage of that. There are some truly miserable human beings out there.
"Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away. " Philip K. Dick
January 21, 2016 at 2:07 pm #37817OzonerangerParticipantThanks, WV…Seems like this board is sailing in calm seas. Obviously, I wasn’t in a posting mood for a long time. Long time. Loss changes you- pretty much narrows one’s perspective on things. So I pretty much missed the better part of two seasons. Had to deal with the business side of death, too, which is unpleasant to say the least.
I’ll be here more often. Lots to talk about.
Oh, and I became a grandfather of twins last year! Little Rams fans coming down the chute!
January 21, 2016 at 2:16 pm #37818OzonerangerParticipantBNW, you didn’t upset me. I apologize for not being clear. I just get frustrated when I hear stuff like, for example, Big Pharma is suppressing a cure for profit. If that were the case, then the industry would not have made the strides we have seen with HIV. Now that disease was a cash cow if there ever was one, due to myriad associated diseases it spawns, including various cancers. Cancer is a tough, mean bastard. Just getting new drugs through Phase 1-3 clinical trials can cost a billion and of course may not prove efficacy or have legs to allow a patient to live just a few more months.
The other thing you mentioned, that cancer can go away by itself, untreated. That’s what’s known as spontaneous remission. This lucky group accounts for two percent of patients and doctors\researchers can’t explain it. If I were to get cancer, and most of us will if we live long enough, I wouldn’t leave it untreated. That’s just suicide. I followed two individuals on FB who decided to forgo SBM for quackery and woo. Like diet, Gerson therapy (juicing fruit and vegetable all day combined with coffee enemas) and holistic\naturopathic “medicine.” One died within the time frame for untreated BC, about 18-24 months is the median. The other is about to have a fungulating (sp) tumor burst from her skin. She’s treating it with black salve, which is like acid.
The charlatans I mentioned take advantage of patients like these to make a profit themselves (see Natural News for one) and there’s a special place in hell for those fuckers. As my wife’s caregiver and advocate, I did my D&D and was shocked at what is shilled out there (cannabis oil, essential oils, mistletoe, vitamin c IVs, veganism and laetrile, which has been re-branded as Vitamin B-17. To name just a few) to vulnerable, scared people. SBM cancer treatment -conventional- is not easy to endure. My wife did pretty well in her first go round. But she also thought juicing and a vegan diet would prevent recurrence. She read that somewhere. It didn’t.
Anyway, sorry for the rant. This -is- personal for me. And now, too, for my brother.
Thanks for the kind words, by the way, gentlemen.
Very well said, Ozone, and I am very sorry for your loss.
A lot of woo surrounds the legalization of marijuana right now. Proponents are pointing to its curative powers over diseases including cancer. It’s total BS. Of course, it’s been established that marijuana can make you feel better and can lessen the uncomfortable side effects of chemo, but it will not cure your cancer.
I’m in favor of the legalization of marijuana (and maybe all drugs FWIW) but making false claims about its healing properties won’t help the cause and can harm a great number of patients who require real evidenced based treatments.
You’re exactly right. My wife had a medical marijuana card but rarely used it. The drugs medics provide for chemo relief worked well enough for her (the second round hit her like a truck, however-she had oxy for that). As for the medical uses, advocates are using false claims about cannabis as a vehicle for legalization. This is an atrocity and can be lethal when chosen as an alternative to SBM. I say just legalize the shit and tax the hell out of it.
February 10, 2016 at 4:29 pm #38821waterfieldParticipantThat Ross-Kessler quote is very special -to me. Thx for posting it.
-
AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.