playoff teams, offense and defense

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  • #36969
    Avatar photozn
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    I see the idea around the net that Fisher’s desired offense—a play action offense that runs the ball and sets up big plays—is “dated.” I don’t agree with that. To me, you can win with that but you need the OL and the qb, as you point out. I have always believed that if you have the personnel and execute for your approach, several approaches can win.

    Look at the 2015 playoff teams. They are not all the same in approach. To make the point I list 2 things–the percentage of total offensive plays that are passes, and the team;s defensive ranking.

    Patz: 63.5% passes, defense 9th
    Steelers: 61.6% passes, defense 21st
    Broncos 61% passes, defense 1st
    Packers 58.7% passes, defense 15th
    Texans: 58.2% passes, defense 3rd
    Washington: 57.6% passes, defense 28th
    Cardinals: 56.5% passes, defense 5th
    Bengals: 54.5% passes, defense 11th
    Chiefs: 54.4% passes, defense 7th
    Seahawks: 51.7% passes, defense 2nd
    Vikings: 51.3% passes, defense 13th
    Panthers: 50.9% passes, defense 6th

    I see 3 teams with passing attempts over 60%, which I count as pass heavy. I see 4 teams with between 55% and 60% passes, which I count as balanced (“balanced” does not mean 50/50). I see 5 teams with between 50% and 55% passes, which I count as run-heavy.

    I also count 7 top 10 defenses. Plus an 11th and a 13th.

    In fact, if you look at another stat—top 10 defenses, top 10 offenses (in terms of yards)–how many teams from each list made the playoffs? (To be top 10 in yards offensively you have to pass a lot.)

    Top 10 defenses — 7 made the playoffs.

    Top 10 offenses — 4 made the playoffs.

    How many of the 4 top 10 offenses that made the playoffs are also top 10 on defense? 3 of the 4. Only the Steelers are top 10 on offense but not on defense.

    #42429
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from off the net

    ==

    -X-

    For those who believe the Rams’ offense is archaic and Fisher is out of touch with today’s “modern” NFL offenses, do me a favor and suspend disbelief in his vision for a minute and take a look at something real quick. These are the splits for the Rams last year in terms of running and passing in the first and second halves.

    And this last graphic represents the games that were arguably decided by QB play.

    IF* (and I understand it’s a big IF) these games were quarterbacked a little better, the record last year, conceivably could have been 13-3 instead of 7-9. And that’s a very fair estimate in my opinion. So I ask you. What’s wrong with the way this offense runs other than the fact that it didn’t have a top QB?

    In my opinion, this team (including this offense) is built for late January/early February football. The offense is all about ball control, clock management, running the ball, and play-action. If they get this qb pick right, and get a little luck in the injury department, we’re already on the track to success. We just need to quit having it derailed by injury and only average QB play. We’re a balanced offense that simply missed a few opportunities to put games away due to lackluster quarterbacking.

    Everything unraveled when Foles unraveled, and it was too late once Keenum was installed. If I can find fault in anything about Fisher last year, i can say that he was a little late to pull the plug on Foles.

    Fisher’s philosophy is balanced offense with an emphasis on clock control. But we’ve seen first-hand that he’s not opposed to throwing the ball (2012), or using tons of different offensive formations and motion to open up the passing game (2014 & 2015). And I saw tremendous potential for the scheme when Boras took over. It can work as it is with just a bit more production out of the QB position and maybe one or two upgrades at the playmaker positions. If those things change, and nothing else, there’s no reason that this offense can’t get the Rams into the playoffs and beyond.

    I reject the notion that this offense has no unique elements. There was a feature video illustrating exactly what made it unique – and that’s being able to run multiple plays out of the same exact formation with disguised looks. While that’s not ground-breaking or anything, it is something that eliminates the possibility of defenses knowing what you’re gonna do. Half of their passing routes featured a smoke route or quick screen to Tavon that gets set up by blocking (disguised as run blocking) and he gets sprung for huge gains. That didn’t surprise me. It happened a lot. There were also some decent routes that were drawn up for Kenny Britt that Keenum took advantage of once he finally got the start.

    Everyone knows that the Rams ranked dead last in 3rd down conversion percentage last year. But what they may not know, is that they jumped up 7 spots in the last 3 games – ahead of teams like Denver and Pitt. And that’s because of Keenum and a half-year of new scheme. Imagine how much it can jump with a full year under Boras and a more proficient passer.

    All of the late season improvements with Keenum and Boras bode well for the future.

    They drafted a ton of linemen, picked up the best RB in the league, and are finally in a position to improve on the QB position. The last part being all you need to succeed if you’re a balanced team with a stellar defense. 7 of the top 10 teams in terms of passing yards didn’t even make the playoffs last year. I’d be willing to bet fans of those teams would GLADLY trade in some of those passing yards for a stout run game and good defense. The recipe for success, however, lies square in the middle.

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