Wagoner: Stats point to Rams' improvement

Recent Forum Topics › Forums › The Rams Huddle › Wagoner: Stats point to Rams' improvement

Viewing 3 posts - 1 through 3 (of 3 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • May 25, 2015 at 1:21 pm #25260
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    Stats point to Rams’ improvement

    By Nick Wagoner

    http://espn.go.com/blog/st-louis-rams/post/_/id/18698/morning-ram-blings-stats-point-to-rams-improvement

    EARTH CITY, Mo. — Over at Grantland.com, Bill Barnwell has an annual tradition of diving into some of the previous season’s numbers to search for teams poised to improve or decline the following season.

    Statistics from a previous season aren’t always an indicator of what will happen the next year, but Barnwell aims to find some statistical anomalies that could be corrected and, in turn, yield better results for some teams and a decline for others.

    This year, Barnwell’s deep dive offers some hope for fans of the St. Louis Rams.

    In one section, Barnwell points to point differential as a function of pythagorean expectation of records. The Rams had a pythagorean differential of -1.2 last year, ranking only behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans as teams that didn’t reach their expected wins based on their point differential. Theoretically, that should normalize, but the Rams’ point differential was a little skewed by the blowout win against the Oakland Raiders.

    The more likely-to-change stat that sticks out like a sore thumb is, of course, points allowed by the offense. It’s no secret the Rams had a bad habit of giving up defensive touchdowns last season. It’s also no secret they were 0-8 in games in which they allowed a defensive touchdown (plus a kick return for a score by the Kansas City Chiefs).

    For the Rams, the hope is that a new quarterback in Nick Foles will offer better ball security and those types of costly errors can be mostly eliminated. There’s no way to project these things from year to year, but it’s probably a safe bet the Rams won’t allow 48 points while playing offense again. That should be at least a starting point for improvement in 2015.

    May 26, 2015 at 8:48 am #25282
    Avatar photozn
    Moderator

    from The NFL Statistical Crystal Ball: What 2014’s Numbers Can Tell Us About 2015

    http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nfl-statistical-crystal-ball-what-2014s-numbers-can-tell-us-about-2015/

    Defensive Touchdowns Allowed

    Let’s run one more stat out there. There’s no year-to-year relationship when examining the number of points a team allows on safeties and fumble and interception returns. Even teams that throw a lot of picks or fumble away a lot of footballs manage to stumble into a tackle or have defenders fall over to even things out.

    Take last year’s leader in points allowed, the Bears, who started Jay Cutler for 15 games and lived to tell the tale. Even as the combination of Cutler and Josh McCown enjoyed a dynamite season in 2013, Marc Trestman’s bunch allowed a staggering 44 points directly on turnovers. The Bears actually turned the ball over more frequently in 2014 (29 giveaways to 23), but even with Cutler sacrificing footballs to the opposition on a team that had given up on its coach by December, Chicago only allowed two defensive scores for a total of 12 points in 2014.

    Yes, 44 points is a lot, but somehow, there’s one team that managed to go even higher in 2014. Who propped fantasy football defenses up last year?

    s

    Oh my. That’s eight defensive touchdowns allowed by the Rams, which doesn’t even include the 99-yard kick return they allowed to Knile Davis. Want to give your team a frustrating, unfair stat with no possible route to improvement besides variance, Jeff Fisher? The Rams were 0-8 in the games where they gave up a return touchdown last year (including that Chiefs game) and 6-2 in the ones where they didn’t cough up a TD. That stat isn’t super meaningful — any record is going to look worse when you put a team down by at least one touchdown as part of the split — but it’s instructive in thinking about just how self-destructive St. Louis was last season.

    Elsewhere, three teams managed to make it through the entire season without allowing any points on offense!2 Nary a single team managed to do that in 2013. The Chiefs win the consistency award, with their hyper-conservative offense having allowed only a single safety to opposing defenses in both 2013 and 2014. They technically allowed a fumble return for a touchdown during the 2013 playoffs, but of course, that was by Andrew Luck.

    May 26, 2015 at 9:24 am #25285
    Avatar photowv
    Participant

    The Rams were the most self-destructive team
    in the NFL. Maybe they need to learn
    to love themselves. Maybe they need
    to find inner peace.

    It goes without saying that
    that must have factored into Fisher’s
    notion to ‘simplify’ things a bit on offense,
    as well as beef up the OLine.

    w
    v

  • Author
    Posts
Viewing 3 posts - 1 through 3 (of 3 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.

Comments are closed.