on & from Football Outsiders on 2013 injuries

FROM . ESPN

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10683857/2014-nfl-offseason-teams-best-worst-injury-luck

Football Outsiders has created an Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric to calculate how much teams were impacted by injuries [excerpted & linked by me below]. AGL is based on two principles: (1) injuries to starters, injury replacements and important situational reserves matter more than injuries to bench warmers; and (2) injured players who do take the field are usually playing with reduced ability, which is why Adjusted Games Lost is based not strictly on whether the player is active for the game or not, but instead is based on the player’s listed status that week (IR/PUP, out, doubtful, questionable or probable).

The Unlucky

New York Giants (7-9)
AGL: 144.6 (32nd)
Recent AGL rankings: 2008 (eighth), 2009 (19th), 2010 (22nd), 2011 (26th), 2012 (25th)
Key injury: RB David Wilson (neck)

The Giants’ 144.6 AGL is the highest in our database, which goes back to 2000. That’s more than twice the 2013 league average of 70.2, which for the third straight year represented a new high. So perhaps injuries keep increasing or teams are more honest in reporting them.

New York was hit hardest at running back, interior offensive line and the secondary. Between an injured offensive line and M.A.S.H. unit at running back, it’s no wonder the running game was so poor. David Wilson’s herniated disk in his neck was the most severe injury and it could keep him out of action in 2014, if not longer. He had surgery this offseason, but neck injuries are always delicate situations. The Giants added some insurance with Rashad Jennings (Raiders) after his career year. That should work better than having to sign Brandon Jacobs, Peyton Hillis or see if Andre Brown will break his leg for the third year in a row.

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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS

FROM . 2013 Adjusted Games Lost

by Scott Kacsmar

[to read the entire article go to:] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/2013-adjusted-games-lost

Wide receiver Michael Crabtree tore his Achilles tendon last May, but returned in time to help San Francisco peak. Denver left tackle Ryan Clady suffered a Lisfranc injury in Week 2 and missed the remainder of the season, including the run to the Super Bowl. New England tight end Rob Gronkowski started the season on the mend, played seven games, and ended 2013 on injured reserve after tearing his ACL. Percy Harvin played just 19 snaps on offense in the regular season for Seattle, but he was healthy enough to make his biggest contribution in the Super Bowl victory.

Injuries are an unfortunate part of the game, but those teams overcame some big ones to make it to the final four in 2013. There were of course many more injuries suffered along the way, and the severity and duration can vary greatly. Sometimes the player makes it back in time, while some teams have to prep a third starter after the backup gets injured as well.

With Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Games Lost (AGL) metric, we are able to quantify how much teams were affected by injuries based on two principles: (1) Injuries to starters, injury replacements and important situational reserves matter more than injuries to bench warmers; and (2) Injured players who do take the field are usually playing with reduced ability, which is why Adjusted Games Lost is based not strictly on whether the player is active for the game or not, but instead is based on the player’s listed status that week (IR/PUP, out, doubtful, questionable or probable).

As long as NFL teams are solely responsible for producing weekly injury reports, we cannot say that every single injury has been accounted for, but secrecy is an unavoidable aspect of this side of the game.
2013 Results

Obviously every team would prefer a low AGL, but some teams will inevitably have a tough year of injuries. The following table lists the AGL totals and rankings along with the results from 2012 for comparison. This data is only for the regular season.

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Perhaps this is the one argument for teams doing a better job of reporting injuries, because once again the average AGL increased. After a league average of 64.5 last season, the 2013 average is 70.2, making it three years in a row that we had a new high in our AGL database (complete for 2002-13).

The correlation for AGL between 2012 and 2013 was 0.10, which is more in line with results from 2002 to 2008 than the higher correlations found in the previous four seasons (2009-12). The correlation between 2013 AGL and 2013 team DVOA was -0.03, which is the smallest since 2002 based on the table Danny Tuccitto prepared in last season’s analysis.

Similarly, the correlation between 2013 wins and 2013 AGL was 0.10, which is the second-weakest correlation since 2002 and the first time the relationship was actually positive. Yes, as AGL went up, so did wins, in a bizarre 2013 where seemingly every AFC contender had several crippling injuries to some of its best players. Recall some of the names who finished the season on injured reserve from the AFC playoff teams alone: Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Allen, Geno Atkins, Leon Hall, Vince Wilfork, Rob Gronkowski, Jerod Mayo, Sebastian Vollmer, Dwight Freeney, Von Miller and Ryan Clady.

One AFC contender avoiding the big injuries was Kansas City, which had a league-low 27.6 AGL in 2013 after ranking 22nd a season ago. The Chiefs had big changes at coach and quarterback, but better health is another plus. The irony is that many will just remember the injuries the Chiefs experienced in the AFC Wild Card Game in Indianapolis, such as losing star running back Jamaal Charles on the opening drive. The Colts erased a 38-10 deficit for the win to join the 2012 Packers as the only teams to win a playoff game despite having an AGL above 100.

The Colts ranked 31st (110.3) in AGL for the third time in five years and have ranked 24th or worse in eight straight seasons. Jon Torine was the strength and conditioning coach from 1998-11, but he was replaced in 2012 by Roger Marandino. Despite three head coaches since 2002, GM Ryan Grigson’s annual roster purge and new philosophies on both sides of the ball, the Colts continue to be one of the NFL’s most injured teams each season.

Seven of the bottom 10 teams in 2013 AGL made the postseason compared to only three of the 10 healthiest teams. In fact, none of the teams ranked 4-10 even had a winning record. It was just an unusual season in how the injuries impacted teams. While a team like the Falcons fell apart, veteran teams used to overcoming injuries like the Packers and Patriots were able to do so again. By some stroke of luck, Aaron Rodgers and Randall Cobb returned just in time for Week 17 to down the Bears and win the NFC North.

After five straight seasons of ranking in the top 10 in AGL, the 49ers suffered 2013’s biggest gain of injuries, going from a league-leading 16.2 AGL in 2012 to a 23rd-ranked 84.2. The 68.0 AGL increase is the third highest on record. Crabtree’s injury was the big one, but Mario Manningham’s struggle to return from his own serious injury was another problem for the wide receivers. The defensive line was also banged up, with nose tackle Ian Williams going down early and standout Justin Smith playing despite a questionable label several times. Despite the increase in injuries and a drop of 12.1 percentage points in DVOA, the 49ers did win 12 games and reached their third-straight NFC Championship. Had the Crabtree injury occurred in July instead of May, he likely would have missed all of 2013.

One team I focused on after Week 1 was Philadelphia, as I asked if the Eagles’ fast pace would have any impact on offensive injuries. The Eagles did lead the league by averaging a play every 23.38 seconds. However, despite losing Jeremy Maclin in the summer and another Michael Vick injury early in the year, the Eagles actually ranked eighth in offensive AGL (21.4) after being dead last in 2012. Chip Kelly’s team ranked second overall in AGL (33.6), so perhaps his hiring of a sports science coordinator is having a desired impact.

This ESPN Insider piece [quoted by me above in this post] has more on the top and bottom teams in AGL and what their ratings may mean for 2014.

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