9ers and the Cap

2024 Super Bowl Takeaways: After LVIII Loss, the 49ers Face More Roster Questions

After the shock of Sunday night wears off, San Francisco needs to take a hard look at its all-star cast thanks to a huge cap hit hovering down the line.
ALBERT BREER

UPDATED:FEB 12, 2024ORIGINAL:FEB 11, 2024

When the devastation of Sunday night’s result wears off, the San Francisco 49ers will have some decisions to make. And that’s largely because—to hold their all-star cast together—they’ve had to kick the can down the road on a bunch of contracts.

The best way to illustrate the looming issue they’ll have to address: Despite having eight players on contracts worth $15 million per year or more, the highest cap number on the team in 2023 was $12.58 million, and there were only three players with cap hits in eight figures. That means money is getting pushed into the future, and eventually that bill comes due.

The question will be how and when San Francisco wants to pay it.

The eight aforementioned players combine for about $198 million in cap charges next year. Add on Brandon Aiyuk’s fully guaranteed fifth-year option and that jumps to about $212 million. The cap next year is expected to land between $240 million and $245 million, which means the 49ers would have to fill the other 44 spots on their roster for between $28 million and $33 million, which would be impossible.

Of course, they could do a bunch of restructures and kick the can down the road again. The problem with that is nine of their cap figures for 2025 add up to more than $194 million, and two of those are dummy years to bury cap charges on high-end contracts.

So, eventually, even if it happens gradually, the Band-Aid will have to be somewhat torn off, particularly if the 49ers wind up paying Brock Purdy (in 2025, when he’s first eligible for a new deal or ’26 when his rookie deal expires), or young guys such as Aiyuk who have played their way into consideration for big second contracts.

The thing is, all of the players we’re talking about are still really good. Trent Williams is 35 but borderline irreplaceable. Arik Armstead is 30 and still a big-time leader on the team. George Kittle is 30, but he remains one the best in the league at his position. Christian McCaffrey’s not done, even with a lot of mileage at 27. The rest (Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel, Fred Warner, Charvarius Ward) are 28 or younger and still in the heart of their primes.

A month after the 49ers last went to the Super Bowl, in 2020, they were faced with similar issues, and GM John Lynch wound up making the tough decision to trade DeForest Buckner to the Colts. He didn’t like to have to do it, but he knew he had to. And it’s not wild to think he, Kyle Shanahan and EVP of football operations Paraag Marathe will soon find themselves reckoning with another decision or two just like that next month.

Now, as long as that group is in charge, I’d say the 49ers are in good shape and should have more chances to get the one thing that’s eluded Shanahan, Lynch and Marathe.

It’s just that it might look a little different the next time around.