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How Chiefs, 49ers, Lions and Ravens exorcised demons to reach conference title games
By Ted Nguyen
https://theathletic.com/5218460/2024/01/23/chiefs-49ers-lions-ravens-playoffs-film-breakdown/
The 2023 NFL playoffs have been about exorcising demons that have plagued each team playing in the conference championship round. Heading into the postseason, the narrative was Lamar Jackson struggles against the blitz, Kyle Shanahan’s teams can’t come from behind to win a game in the fourth quarter, Andy Reid is unwilling to run the ball, Jared Goff can’t make big-time throws in the clutch.
It took a half, but Jackson figured out the Texans defense and the Ravens put up 24 second-half points to seal the win.
Shanahan can get notoriously conservative and he cost the 49ers points near the end of the first half, but he kept putting the ball in Brock Purdy’s hands and the quarterback found a way to complete the comeback on the final drive.
Patrick Mahomes was magnificent against the Bills but it was the Chiefs’ heavy personnel groupings and run game that made the difference.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers made the game interesting in the fourth quarter, but Goff answered every time he was called upon.
Lamar figures out the Texans’ blitz
One of the most infamous games of Jackson’s career was when he was blitzed into oblivion by then-Dolphins head coach Brian Flores on Thursday Night Football. It was shocking watching one of the most electric players in the league struggle so mightily. Jackson was sacked four times in that game and the Ravens only managed to score 10 points.
“It was cover 0 a majority of the whole game,” Jackson said after the game. “They just got hot each and every time I’m dropping back … just couldn’t do anything about that.”
What Jackson likely was saying he was “hot,” meaning the defense sent one or more rushers than the offense could block so he had to throw the ball hot. When he did throw hot, the Dolphins were right on top of his receivers and tackled them for short gains — he averaged only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. Professing that he couldn’t do anything about it shows how desperate he was for answers.
In his career, the blitz has reduced Jackson to a below-average quarterback. Among qualifying passers (played in at least 40 games), from 2018-2023, Jackson ranks 20th in EPA per dropback against the blitz. It’s a way for defenses to get the ball out of his hands and keep him in the pocket. Theoretically, there are fewer running lanes when there are more pass rushers.
In the divisional round, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans took this approach to the next level. He blitzed Jackson at the highest rate he’s ever been blitzed in his career. According to Next Gen Stats, Jackson was blitzed on 75 percent of dropbacks. He struggled with it in the first half but he rose to the occasion in the second half. Jackson finished with 120 yards passing, two touchdowns and completed 13 of 18 passes against the blitz.
Jackson held the ball for an average of 3.51 seconds against the blitz in the first half. He adjusted in the second half and got rid of the ball more than a second faster (2.25 seconds). Throwing the ball faster isn’t simply a decision to do so, you must have quick answers and know where to throw against the different types of blitzes. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken gave Jackson answers that he didn’t have against Miami in 2021.
In that 2021 game, the offense was too static and Jackson kept throwing bubble screens and rub routes that didn’t have enough time to develop. Against the Texans, Monken effectively used motion to force the defense to adjust pre-snap and to create space for Jackson to quickly throw into.
7:53 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-7
On third-and-7, the Texans had two linebackers mugged up in the A-gaps. After Jackson motioned running back Justice Hill to the other side, he saw the nickel move inside, which was a tell that he was going to blitz. The offense had a snag concept called with Hill running to the flats. This meant that, despite the frequent blitzing, Monken trusted Jackson enough to call a five-man pass pro.
The edge defender, Jonathan Greenard, to Jackson’s right dropped but the defense still rushed six, meaning they had one more than the offense could block. Jackson had to throw hot but he remained calm and let the route concept develop.
Greenard ran with Hill, which left Zay Flowers wide open on the spot route.
Though there is never a great answer against a quarterback of Jackson’s quality, but blitzing at a high rate was usually the best strategy against him. But based on his play lately, that may not be relevant anymore. It’s not simply a scheme that is helping Jackson. This season, he just has a better understanding of defenses and a noticeable calm about him no matter what the defense tries.
49ers end fourth-quarter funk
I knew the 49ers were going to struggle when I saw how hard the rain started to come down in Santa Clara. Brock Purdy has struggled to throw in the rain and against the Packers, he was off target on 25.6 percent of his passes, the worst rate of his career. The second-worst was when the 49ers played Cleveland in Week 6 in which he also struggled to control the ball in the rain.
Everyone has seen the stat by now, before the divisional round, Shanahan was 0-30 when his teams trailed by five or more points when entering the fourth quarter. It’s hard to come back from those kinds of deficits in general, but it’s still jarring to see that one of the best offensive coaches of all time has never come back from a five-plus-point lead in the fourth quarter.
How did he finally get over the hump? By continually trusting Purdy to throw the ball despite his struggles.
The Packers defense took the correct approach and dared the 49ers to throw. The 49ers have dominated teams that play base defense (some combination of seven defensive linemen and linebackers with four defensive backs) through the air. In the regular season, they led the league in net yards per pass attempt (10.7) and overall yards per game (129.1) against base personnel. But with Purdy struggling, Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who seems to have a newfound respect for the run in recent weeks, was more concerned with stopping Christian McCaffrey. The 49ers struggled to run against the Packers’ base and instead of bashing their heads against the wall, Shanahan kept putting the ball in Purdy’s hands — the QB dropped back a season-high 41 times.
It wasn’t always pretty. His inability to control the ball seemed to be getting into his head. He was missing reads and looked erratic throughout the game. After Packers kicker Anders Carlson missed a 41-yard field goal, the 49ers found themselves down by four points with the ball and 6:41 remaining in the game. On that drive, Purdy was 6 of 7 (George Kittle dropped a pass) for 47 yards and had a nine-yard scramble to set up McCaffrey for the game-winning touchdown run.
3:07 remaining in the fourth quarter, first-and-10
After crossing the midfield line, the 49ers had a mirrored concept with two deep out-breaking routes. Brandon Aiyuk was lined up to the left and backup receiver Chris Conley was lined up to the right. The Packers seemed to be daring the 49ers to throw outside all game. Their corners were cheating inside for most of the game. Why would they think Purdy could throw an out-breaking route with how much he was struggling throughout the game?
As he got to the top of his drop, Purdy kept his front shoulder pointed to the middle of the field and didn’t telegraph the pass. Packers defensive back Jonathan Owens was the flat defender. He was responsible for getting underneath Conley but he seemed to be influenced by Purdy’s body position, as he angled his hips inside and never dropped with any width.
Still, this was a difficult throw. Purdy had to layer the ball over Owens to Conley and he did it perfectly for a 17-yard gain. The clock wasn’t a problem at this point, so they didn’t necessarily have to throw the ball to the sideline but the opportunity was there because of how the Packers were playing the 49ers receivers. Shanahan trusted his young quarterback to make a hard throw and he executed.
Purdy eventually found a way to control the ball and regain his poise when the game was on the line. Shanahan made a terrible game-management error before halftime, playing for a long field goal in the rain instead of trying to get into the red zone or set up for a closer field goal. But he deserves credit for letting Purdy figure things out. The 49ers never trailed by double-digits, so he didn’t have to keep letting Purdy drop back, but he did and Purdy rewarded his trust.
Chiefs’ offensive evolution in the playoffs
Reid has been criticized throughout his career for his clock management and his unwillingness to run the ball. He’s figured out clock management in the last few years but he’s still not a big fan of letting all-world quarterback Patrick Mahomes hand the ball off too many times. And why would he? Most times, taking the ball out of Mahomes’ hands is a win for the defense, but this has been a different kind of season. The Chiefs’ receivers have let them down frequently throughout the season and Kansas City has one of the league’s best defenses. Running the ball more and trusting the defense just makes sense.
The Chiefs also have one of the NFL’s best interiors with Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. Also, the Bills were inordinately banged up at linebacker. According to Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs lined up in 13 personnel (one back, three tight ends, one receiver) on 23.4 percent of plays. On those plays, the Chiefs gained 95 rushing yards with a success rate of 63.6 percent. Against the Bills, they had their fifth-lowest Cook rate game of the season. The “Cook Index” is measured by “how frequently teams pass the ball on first and second downs in the first 28 minutes of regulation, before time remaining and score differential influence run-pass tendencies.”
The Chiefs also created passing opportunities for Mahomes out of their multiple-tight end sets. In multiple-tight end personnel groupings, Mahomes was 8 of 12 for 112 yards (9.2 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns. This multiple-tight ends, physical approach is the latest iteration of Reid’s offense with Mahomes. They’ve evolved from a spread-it-out, deep-passing team to a quick, short-passing attack to this version. This latest iteration may hurt Reid’s pass-happy core the most but it might win him another Super Bowl. He now just has to stop giving the ball to receivers behind the line of scrimmage.
Goff’s fourth-quarter dimes
Dan Campbell isn’t afraid of anything, especially criticism. He will call fake punts in his own territory, he’ll keep taking fourth-down chances, and he’s going to let his often-slandered quarterback throw the ball to ice games. Last week, up by one point, the Lions passed the ball twice in a four-minute drill to ensure they could end the game on kneel-downs with Goff throwing two 11-yard passes for first downs.
Lions are winning playoff games and changing perceptions of what they can accomplish
Against the Buccaneers, the Lions had a seven-point lead and faced third-and-15 with the ball on their 44-yard line. Most teams would call a draw or screen to set themselves up for a punt rather than risk a negative play. Only the teams with mutant quarterbacks like Mahomes or Josh Allen routinely try to throw the ball past the sticks in these situations. Goff doesn’t have the physical traits of those guys, but Campbell and offensive coordinator Ben Johnson trusted him like he’s of that ilk.
9:32 remaining in the fourth quarter, third-and-15
This image gives you an idea about the depth that the receivers have to get to on third-and-very-long. They have to run past the first-down marker, especially on a curl route like Amon-Ra St. Brown ran.
Starting corner Jamel Dean was hurt so the Lions went after his replacement, Zyon McCollum. McCollum’s coverage wasn’t bad. He was breaking right as St. Brown was breaking.
However, Goff led St. Brown back toward him, away from the coverage. The pass needed to be right on the money and it was. The offensive line also deserves a ton of credit for giving Goff a clean pocket on the shotgun equivalent of a seven-step drop.
A few plays later, he threw another dime to St. Brown for the game-sealing touchdown.
Belief and trust in Goff were scarce when he was traded to the Lions. He probably even doubted himself. But if it’s one superpower that Campbell has, it’s making people believe. And it’s not just through cheap words and rah-rah speeches. He makes you believe through his actions. He’s proven that he has absolute trust in Goff by putting the ball in his hands in critical situations — ones in which most coaches would get conservative — and Goff has delivered time after time. This season, Goff has blossomed under the pressure of Campbell’s “gambles” and now, Campbell has the entire city of Detroit believing in Goff and this team.
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