Rodrigue: “9 things I think,” 11/4

Nine things I think in Week 9 as the Rams find footing post-trade deadline

By Jourdan Rodrigue

https://theathletic.com/3749772/2022/11/04/rams-week-9-analysis-cam-akers/?source=emp_shared_article

THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. — It’s safe to say that the Rams’ Week 8 did not go as planned. Or hoped. And it’s also fair to say that their trade deadline didn’t go according to their “plan A”, either.

Ahead of the Rams’ Week 9 game in Tampa Bay, here are nine things I think — and some key tidbits, reporting and factoids relevant to this week and beyond (all statistics courtesy of TruMedia).

1. The Rams didn’t make any trades at the deadline, but they were active. They put together a few aggressive packages for a pass rusher (they had a couple of targets here including Carolina’s Brian Burns). They were also looking into other positions such as running back, interior offensive line and receiver, multiple people with knowledge of the Rams’ trade plans who weren’t authorized to speak publicly said. Outside linebacker/edge defender remained their top priority, but no teams bit.

2. There was a prevailing sense of irony, during a record-setting trade deadline in which 10 trades were executed in one day, that the Rams are now competing in a market that they helped make more efficient. They weren’t the first team to execute picks-for-players trades, but they did so in such high frequency (and won a Super Bowl) that it’s clear their path is at least one reason why so many trades among contending/competitive teams are happening. If the Rams are competing in a more efficient market, because they already pushed in certain capital to motivate that market’s efficiency in the first place, they can be out-bid by others.

3. Cam Akers is back. He was a full participant on Thursday (he and teammates were in visibly great spirits throughout the practice and locker room) and he could play Sunday against Tampa Bay.

Akers had been away from the team since Oct. 14. The Rams tried to trade him (including within packages for other players), but could not. They also received no realistic trade offers for Akers, a person with knowledge of the trade talks said. Wednesday, Akers and head coach Sean McVay had a conversation in which Akers affirmed he’d like to remain a part of the team — and Thursday, Akers reiterated that at no point did he ask to be traded.

I don’t think, I know this situation has some layers to it. It also has been simmering quietly since training camp. For those still curious about how it unfolded, I’d advise checking out a piece I published earlier this week that digs into it behind the scenes.

4. The Rams were interested in Houston receiver Brandin Cooks, and that feeling was mutual, two people with knowledge of his situation (who weren’t authorized to speak publicly) said. But several days before the deadline, they were of the understanding that Houston had no plans to alter Cooks’ contract, which was a huge barrier for the Rams and other interested teams. Cooks is guaranteed $18 million in 2023 on the latter end of an extension he previously signed with the Texans. For this reason, the Rams were not among late-pursuing teams in trade talks with Cooks.

5. They were not legitimately in on trade talks regarding Cleveland running back Kareem Hunt, despite circulated reports in the days leading up to the deadline, a person with direct knowledge of the Rams’ trade plans who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly said.

6. OK, so, the run game. Currently, the run game is the worst version of itself it has been in six seasons under McVay. Seriously. They’re No. 27 in the NFL in EPA per rush, but their 0.97 yards before contact per carry and 31.2 percent success rate both represent lows through seven games under McVay.

Their offensive line injury catastrophe and uneven play from their running backs have contributed to this, but I wouldn’t rule out McVay making more changes in the future.

7. Tampa Bay has historically been pretty solid against the run. But over the last two weeks, teams have run for 6.41 and 7 yards per carry and two touchdowns against them, with respective 66.7 and 51.7 percent success rates on run plays.

8. I think there are better ways to play the 49ers/quarterbacks who get the ball out quickly underneath. But if the Rams can’t get any type of pass rush from non-blitzing rushes, and if they don’t completely trust their non-Jalen Ramsey coverage players, they’re going to have a really hard time clamping their zone tighter and matching closer.

Trust me — I get it, and though I believe in the general ethos of a defense built to limit explosive plays, I also agree that allowing especially Jimmy Garoppolo and his catch-and-run players to chip away underneath is hard to watch and frankly its repetitive success is the definition of insanity if you’re the Rams. I also think that any argument that focuses solely on the idea of simply moving defensive backs closer to receivers, and not also on the other factors at play, is an illogical argument.

Three major keys are at work here (and even still, it’s not as simple as just three things).

1a. The pass rush.

The Rams are No. 2 in pass-rush win-rate, according to ESPN’s advanced metrics. But they’re No. 31 in actual pressure rate. This means that many of the Rams’ pass rushers (and I’d say skewed toward the positive thanks to Aaron Donald) are winning their matchups — but they are not actually affecting the quarterback — which pairs with the fact that quarterbacks are getting the ball out each week under league-average “time to throw” (TTT). And because of how their defense is structured, TTT is extra effective because of how the Rams cover. The Rams are not pressuring effectively with four rushers, and so are manufacturing their pressure at a league-high rate (blitzes and “sims”, simulated pressure). This removes extra help from the intermediate layers of the field, where quarterbacks are attacking with quick throws on underneath routes.

The average “time to throw” in the NFL is 2.74 seconds. Against the Rams, quarterbacks are getting the ball out, on average, in 2.38 seconds — fastest in the NFL.

“(It’s because of) Aaron Donald,” said defensive coordinator Raheem Morris. “He’s the bogeyman, right? So you’re gonna come in with the ability to get the ball out fast.”

By the way, Burns recorded a sack this season at 2.34 seconds. Just saying.

1b. Coverage.

We’ve been over this before. The Rams play a shell defense that rotates often out of its pre-snap look and is designed to cap explosive downfield plays and prevent touchdowns in the red zone. They first installed it in 2020, and now it’s the predominant defense in a high-volume passing league. They are No. 1 in the NFL in preventing explosive passes, and in correlation, they are in the top 10 in the league in preventing touchdowns. Over the last five seasons, the Rams have ranked in the top three in off-coverage, per Next Gen Stats, and in 2022 they’ve played about 100 more snaps of zone than the next-closest team. As we know, a single explosive passing play triples the touchdown rate on a drive.

But, is there a way to press down a little bit more to mitigate the quick game, within that zone outline, while still keeping a cap over the explosives — especially when quarterbacks are getting the ball out at record speed? I asked Morris that exact question this week.

“I don’t think you can do that without protecting the whole team,” he said. “We live and die off not giving up explosives. And I think how we’re living and dying right now is, if we’re able to not give up an explosive, we’ve got a chance to win that game.”

Players in the second and third levels have to tackle more consistently to stop drives in which quarterbacks pick away at the underneath stuff.

“That’s huge,” Donald said. “You never want to give YAC (yards after the catch) yards.”

Inside linebacker Bobby Wagner also brought up playing the percentages, meaning correlating certain coverages to certain tendencies (every team does this; it’s just a matter of how effective they are between plan and execution).

To that point, the Rams did exactly this Sunday against San Francisco, and it went in the exact opposite way it was intended. Because their zone is supposed to be a “match-zone”, especially on predicted passing downs, defensive backs can crank down from their cushion to jump over routes in an effort to make a play on the ball. But they have to jump the correct route; Sunday, rookie cornerback Derion Kendrick chose the wrong route and the result was the 56-yard pass explosive.

1c. Type of lead.

If an offense builds a real lead for its defense, the defense plays less “safely” and gets more aggressive because it has a points cushion, and opponents are having to change their own game plan. The Rams have struggled to get multi-score or even seven-point leads against several of the teams they’ve played (including among them some of the NFL’s top defenses).

“When you’re able to get those guys to go and absolutely not worry about the run (and) they’re able to get off the ball, that’s when the pass rush comes to life. That also allows the coverage to come to life because that allows them to trigger faster, that allows them to sit on things and play a little bit more aggressive,” Morris said. “Some of those things happen when you have leads and it’s not an excuse, it’s just the way football is played.”

I obviously think the Rams offense is a much, much bigger problem at the moment than its defense, which ranks No. 13 in DVOA and usually gets better in the latter half of each season (of course, they’d love to have gotten a better pass rusher opposite Leonard Floyd ahead of the deadline). But this defense (and some of the misconceptions about it) has been the hot topic of conversation, particularly because of the two losses to San Francisco so early in the season and because other teams’ usage of it is affecting the rest of the league.

I also really, really recommend checking out this thread from analyst Cody Alexander, who quite literally wrote the book(s) on this type of defense:

9. I think the Rams, and McVay, got perhaps their first lucky bounce of the season when testing on Sunday night and Monday revealed no structural damage in Cooper Kupp’s ankle. Injuries are often freak occurrences, especially in a violent sport, but many of the variables around them can still be controlled. In this case, it was within McVay’s power to pull Kupp — who also had gotten his knee banged up before the Rams’ bye week — in the garbage minutes of an unwinnable game. It was also within his power not to call a pass play to Kupp.

Kupp expressed no hard feelings about the situation. Monday, after he undoubtedly breathed a sigh of relief that the test results came back clean, McVay said he’d make a different call if he had the opportunity to do it over again. But he also said he made the call because he “didn’t want to have to punt”, meaning he didn’t want to give the 49ers the ball back to close out the game. It’s fine to not want to give up until the clock is all zeros. But in 49ers players’ perspectives, McVay actually did make a give-up call, a run for Darrell Henderson on third-and-16 with 5:35 left to play. He also elected to run the clock down with about a minute left in the first half, ahead 14-10 with a timeout left after a pretty important defensive stand at the goal line.

None of this — McVay’s reasoning for Kupp being out there, that fourth-quarter run call and the conservative decision before the half — squares up with itself.

Kupp was held out of practice as a precaution Wednesday, but his status elevated to “limited” on Thursday and McVay said at the start of the week that he expects Kupp to be available against Tampa Bay. Lucky, indeed.