some (near) mid-season assessments/re-assessments

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  • November 1, 2022 at 8:04 pm #141475
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    Jourdan Rodrigue@JourdanRodrigue
    The Rams entered the year knowing they would be aggressively exploring their options at pass-rusher post-Miller departure. And they did that – including with a couple of big-swing trade package suggestions – nobody bit. There was also a sense that perhaps a trade market (thread)

    that once was fairly inefficient (meaning: teams less likely to part with their own picks in picks-for-players trades) has become a lot more efficient which also means way bigger offers competing with way bigger offers than in the past. At the same time, multiple needs emerged

    for a team that last year was 1 or 2 players away. The Rams looked into options at WR, RB, iOL even as pass-rusher remained high on priority list, multiple sources said, but nothing popped. They also were unable to trade Cam Akers (who either comes back or gets cut).

    Could part of all of this also be that more teams are still “in it” in a weird year and less likely to part with players? Absolutely. Part of it what happened over the weekend/their poor start to this season? Yep, and still think they’ll be active on waivers etc down the stretch.

    There’s also a certain irony in the results of an efficient market that the Rams helped to move via picks-for-player trades on their journey to a Super Bowl, that are now hurting their trade chances if they can be out-bid. The McCaffrey scenario highlighted this in full view.

    I can understand big swings for very good pass-rushers and that’s probably what I’d do in this situation (not that anybody asked lol). The Rams believe this is one of four high-investment positions (QB, WR, CB, pass rush). When they traded for Ramsey in 2019, it was two 1s and

    a 4, with a long-term plan that re-shaped his extension and their defensive scheme. If you’re in on a young pass-rusher, you’re probably looking at similar terms because you know you can build around him in a post-Donald world at some point in the future.

    November 1, 2022 at 8:13 pm #141476
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    Cody Alexander@The_Coach_A
    A lot has been made about the #Rams “soft” zone coverage & how it has led to struggles in the 1st half of the season

    Let’s take a look…

    First, let’s put some context to this:

    The #Rams are a Cover 3 based defense

    They run a variation of Cover 3 on about 59% of their snaps

    Cover 3, played w/ ZN CBs can leave a defense susceptible to underneath throws, especially to the outside flats

    In reality, the #Rams’ D is not playing *that* poorly

    @fboutsiders has them w/ a DVOA that ranks 13th overall, 4th against the run, & 19th against the pass

    According to @espn, LAR is 3rd in Pass rush win rate

    ???? So, yes, coverage *is* the issue

    The #Rams have only given up 9 passing TDs so far

    That ties them for 10th in the league

    But, they also rank 23rd in completion %

    & the #Rams are first in the league when it comes to limiting explosive passes

    They aren’t allowing them…

    Why the concern?

    The issue is volume of yards & where they come from

    QB’s understand that when they play the #Rams, the underneath routes will be open

    LAR is a top 10 team in blitz rate, but they give up a lot underneath

    Let’s take a look at the #49ers game…

    Here is a look at Jimmy G’s passing chart against the #Rams…

    An overwhelming majority are under 20yds

    This is because of how LAR plays their zone coverages

    8 of Jimmy’s 25 passes went over 10 yds

    Looking at the yards after receptions,

    & you see a bigger picture

    Both TEs & the RB (McCaffery) had 142 yards after they caught the ball (CM had 60!)

    That is ~62% of the yardage!

    Here is how the #49ers attacked the #Rams:

    >RB option routes on Safeties from depth or ILBs
    >Push routes to the flats
    >Slants away from the 3 WR side (5-Out), attacking the soft area behind the 3-Dropper
    >”Gift” flat pass under coverage
    >Early-down PA suck-up

    All of these are by design & attack the #Rams’ bend-don’t-break coverage mentality

    Though it may be concerning for fans, LAR’s DC (Morris) has made a concerted effort to play ZN

    It’s part of the system

    ???? LA only runs C1 ~7% of their snaps

    Why?

    Personnel

    Playing man would make sense for the #Rams

    They have an elite pass rush & one of the better CBs in the #NFL

    So why not play man?

    The design of the defense is for the Safeties to play ZN coverage & occupy space, not a man

    Plus, hey give up 16+ YPR in C1 ??

    In order to play man, you need a Ni & a DS that can play man coverage

    ???? The DS on the TE & the Ni as a slot

    The issue is offenses feast on this

    Even the #Cowboys, who ran C1 ~67% of their snaps in ’21 are playing it much less (~22%)

    No team is over 36%

    What’s the real issue?

    It is a combination of the offense struggling, giving opposing teams more snaps

    …& the changing tides in the NFL

    Teams are now used to seeing top-down coverages & are taking advantage of a defense that gives them space underneath

    A 5yd run is 5 yds, but a 5yd pass can turn into 10, 15, 20+

    Should the #Rams play more man coverage, or at least tighter ZNs?

    Maybe…

    But it changes the overall philosophy of the defense, & wholesale change in the middle of the season is never a good thing

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