Rams success is built around 1st downs

from https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/09/27/week-3-preview-josh-allen-jared-goff-contrasts-lamar-better-equipped-for-chiefs

Rams-Bills is a fascinating contrast of styles, with both offenses thriving right now. While the Bills are doing it with the big play, for the Rams it’s all about sustained offense and what they do on football’s most important down: first down.

In part because they have trailed for only a little less than 10 minutes on the season so far, the Rams have the most run-heavy offense in the NFL through two games (56.8% run percentage). Their 2020 offense has been defined by that run game and a passing game heavy on play-action and misdirection, with an emphasis on attacking horizontally and getting yards after the catch (they also lead the NFL with a 7.9 YAC average).

It all works because they’ve been successful on first downs. The Rams have been sustaining long drives because they’ve faced the most palatable second downs in football so far—6.29 yards is their average second-down distance (no team has been sub-7 in that stat over a full season since the 2005 Colts). When you’re staying ahead of the sticks, every offensive option stays on the table. That means the defense needs to respect the run threat on play-action (while “establishing the run” doesn’t factor into play-action effectiveness, down-and-distance does since no one’s getting sucked up on third-and-8 … except for maybe the Jets) and jet motion (Rams receivers had six rushing attempts in Philly last week). And Sean McVay’s offense is as good as any in football when it comes to making all their plays look the same. That’s how a team that doesn’t stretch the field vertically puts constant stress on a defense.

If that first-down success continues, the Rams will be in business. If it doesn’t, they’ll be in trouble. L.A. has converted third-and-6-or-less at a 77.3% rate through two games, third-best in the NFL. They’re 1-for-13 (7.7%) on third-and-7+, second-worst in the NFL. Those third-and-long struggles will be exacerbated against the Bills: Goff has always had issues against Cover-4 looks, and no one plays quarters coverage better than Sean McDermott’s group.