Ramsey deal clears 2020 cap space… & other Rams n the cap issues

from https://theramswire.usatoday.com/2020/09/10/rams-contract-jalen-ramsey-details-cap-hit-2020/

By getting Ramsey’s deal done, the Rams actually freed up a significant chunk of cap space in 2020. According to Mike Garafolo’s breakdown of Ramsey’s contract, his base salary this season will only be $1.2 million – down from $13.7 million.

Because he got a $25 million signing bonus, which is prorated over five years, his cap hit will drop from that $13.7 million figure to about $6.2 million ($1.2 million base salary plus $5 million per year for the bonus). That gives the Rams an additional $7.5 million in cap space this year, potentially opening the door for a Cooper Kupp extension.

AlbaNY_Ram

This chart shows that from 2011 thru 2017 teams that spent between 56% and 59% of their cap in their top 10 players had the most success. From this article: https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/15/17114596/nfl-free-agency-2018-salary-cap-formula-winning-teams

The ‘rule’ suggested by the chart is to get as close to 60% as you can without going over (since going over 60% seems to correlate with wins dropping from 9.2 down to 5.5).

From the article, though: “The exception to the rule: The 2017 Los Angeles Rams In the sample of eight teams that went over 60 percent (they were at 63.1 percent), last year’s 11-5 Rams were one of just two that had a winning record* and were the only team with a scoring margin higher than plus-60 — at plus-149, they had the third-best margin of the year.” (They attribute the Rams’ success to getting a lot of production from guys on their rookie deals: Goff, Gurley, Kupp, Watkins, Cooper, Higbee, Donald, Joyner, and Johnson.)

Going on my failing memory I think the trend is more like 8 or 9 players in that 56% – 59% range rather than 10 in recent years. Looking for supporting documentation …

Peter King, from: https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/09/21/russell-wilson-seahawks-nfl-week-2-fmia-peter-king-let-russ-cook/

Numbers Game

Much has been made in the past week about the Rams’ salary cap, and the big contracts given to Jared Goff and Aaron Donald (last year) and to Jalen Ramsey, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods (this year). But this year isn’t the issue for the Rams. The next two years are.

In 2020, the combined cap numbers for the five big contracts will be $73.9 million, which is 37.3 percent of the NFL’s 2020 cap number, $198.2 million per team.

But look how the numbers inflate next year, with a cap that’s likely to be about a $175 million. The cap numbers of the Rams’ golden five:

Goff: $34.63 million
Donald: $27.9 million
Ramsey: $22.5 million
Kupp: $14.5 million
Woods: $12.4 million
Total of those five: $111.9 million.

On a $175-million cap, those five contracts would take up 63.9 percent of the Rams’ salary load, and leave $63.1 million for 48 other players on the active and the practice squad. Say it’s 10 on the practice squad. That creates an incredibly bottom-heavy roster.

But I do not expect the Rams to stay status quo on those five deals. In the NFL salary space, teams can convert base salary to signing bonus at any time, meaning, for instance, that Goff’s salary next year could be reduced from $25.33 million to $1 million. That would allow the Rams to spread $24.33 million equally over the cap numbers of the last four years of his contract. Upside: Goff’s cap number in 2021 would be reduced by $18.2 million. Downside: Each of the last three years of the deal would have the cap number jacked up by $6.1 million.

That’s why—and the Rams aren’t the only team thinking this—it’s vital that the NFL get back to some semblance of normalcy in 2021, so the 2022 and future caps are not continually hamstrung by the economic effects of this COVID-affected season.

Agamemnon wrote:

I think the Cap will be more than most are predicting.

Me too. 175 M is the 2021 cap floor, not the 2021 cap. Plus they are going to spread the revenue losses from 2020 across 4 years. I just don’t think they will end up with a CAP of 175 M.