virus math

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  • March 22, 2020 at 10:38 am #112801
    wv
    Participant

    I hate math. But i watched this after i read this post by Dan who is a doctor in Britain.

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    The exponential function – Just about the best youtube video

    Posted by dan on March 20, 2020, 11:23 pm

    Just watch the first ten minutes but the whole is great.

    The doubling time for Corona in UK is 5 days.
    In Italy it has been 2 days.

    I think there will probably be 50,000 cases in the community.

    Without control double that number every 5 days. 1% (conservative) mortality going to be thousands or tens of thousands of deaths in the 12 weeks Boris says it’s going to take to bring things under control.
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    March 22, 2020 at 10:43 am #112802
    wv
    Participant

    =======================
    Analysis of outcomes in 50k chinese people with covid-19

    Posted by dan on March 20, 2020, 9:03 pm

    Tweet from @Menon_Cambridge: Rigorous analysis of~50k Wuhan cases. Case fatality for COVID-19 =1.4% in symptomatic patients (below past estimates). OR for death 0.6 in those <30; and 5.1 in those >59 y. Risk of symptomatic infection increased ~4% per year between 30 & 60 years.

    link:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0822-7.epdf

    March 22, 2020 at 6:44 pm #112831
    Mackeyser
    Moderator

    Those Wuhan numbers come with a caveat: right as the curve was set to spike, the Chinese did massive interventions, not just instituting a rigid quarantine, but also literally removing symptomatic people from their homes.

    Such radical measures, limited both continued spread and mortality

    Had the Chinese been handling this like the US is, we’d already be seeing deaths in the 100k-1M range and growing rapidly.

    Thus, while the R naught value and the fatality rates are important to know, when that’s a function of number of infected, the scale gets out of hand really quickly.

    Sports is the crucible of human virtue. The distillate remains are human vice.

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