Rams’ defense is officially better than its offense

Mike Sando, from https://theathletic.com/1368131/

Continuing a massive shift, the Rams’ defense is officially better than its offense.

The Rams entered Week 10 as 4.5-point favorites at Pittsburgh, perhaps on reputation. The Steelers’ defense figured to be a difficult matchup coming off a bye, particularly if you’re among those who think defenses have increasingly figured out the Rams’ offense.

The Rams barely cracked double figures on the scoreboard during their 17-12 defeat. They scored nine of their 12 points on defense, continuing a pattern that has seen the Rams’ D overtake their offense as the stronger unit of the two. Aaron Donald’s presence along the defensive line and the Rams’ recent acquisition of cornerback Jalen Ramsey could make this trend hold for the future unless coach Sean McVay can find answers on offense.

What happened Sunday in Pittsburgh was simply an exaggeration of a trend that has been in the works since last season. From an EPA standpoint, this game against the Steelers marked the Rams’ second-worst offensive showing and fourth-best on defense since McVay became head coach in 2017.

Why use EPA? Expected-points models track how the expectation for scoring changes on each play. Possessing the ball on first-and-goal from the 1-yard line carries a high expectation for scoring a touchdown on the drive. If the offense fumbles in that situation and the defense returns the ball for a touchdown, the announcers covering the game might naturally refer to a 14-point swing. EPA accounts for that swing and all the other smaller fluctuations during a game. Tracking these EPA changes on a play level helps assign credit to specific units with greater accuracy than yards or even points.

The Rams’ defensive performance Sunday, led by Dante Fowler’s fumble return for a touchdown and a third-quarter safety, produced more than 23 EPA. The Rams’ defense during the McVay era outperformed that total in only three games: against Indianapolis and Seattle in 2017, and at San Francisco last season. The Rams won those games in blowouts because their offense was also playing well. But against the Steelers, the offense cost the Rams nearly 28 EPA. That included a roughly seven-point EPA loss on a single play when Minkah Fitzpatrick returned a Jared Goff interception for a touchdown. That was the largest one-play negative swing of the game for the Rams, helping to offset their defensive dominance, and then some.

The chart above tracks the Rams’ offensive and defensive EPA averages over eight-game stretches of the past three regular seasons. That covers the beginning of McVay’s tenure through the eighth game this season. Notice how the offense peaked in 2018 before plummeting. The defense has spiked upward more recently, overtaking the offense through the first half of this season. The chart includes only the first eight games this season. The unusually extreme results from the Rams’ ninth game, played Sunday, would exaggerate the effect further.

There are theories but no air-tight answers for what is causing the Rams’ sharp offensive downturn. The line is obviously weaker. Todd Gurley could be diminished. Defenses have succeeded in duplicating aspects of the plans Detroit, Chicago and New England developed last season. A coach who has studied the 49ers and monitored the Rams thought San Francisco was doing more to stay ahead of its opponents.

“Kyle Shanahan has done a really good job at adapting and evolving that system, whereas I think the Rams’ system has remained more similar,” this coach said.