the OL (November thread)

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  • November 4, 2019 at 4:36 pm #107754
    Avatar photozn
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    LMU93

    Football Outsiders on Rams OL

    I emailed Football Outsiders asking if they could explain why they have the Rams OL 9th in run blocking and 3rd in pass protection while most of us view the OL (currently) as a bottom tier unit, other sites like PFF have them 31st, etc. For whet it’s worth, they responded:

    “First of all, the offensive line rankings are not based on DVOA. That’s a different stat, adjusted line yards. Adjusted line yards takes runs and cuts them off at different lengths to get a better idea of the run blocking vs. what the running backs do on their own. Then it adjusts those numbers for down, distance, and opponent. What’s going on in part with the Rams is that a high percentage of their runs are coming in the red zone, so we’re adjusting those numbers upwards because the average run in the red zone naturally gains fewer yards. When you adjust based on that, our numbers suggest that the run blocking has been better than the standard stats would otherwise indicate. The biggest problem with the Rams’ running game has been the lack of breakaway long runs.”

    November 4, 2019 at 5:23 pm #107761
    Hram
    Participant

    Good to know and that gives me hope

    November 5, 2019 at 9:06 am #107778
    Avatar photozn
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    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: What’s going on in part with the Rams is that a high percentage of their runs are coming in the red zone, so we’re adjusting those numbers upwards because the average run in the red zone naturally gains fewer yards. When you adjust based on that, our numbers suggest that the run blocking has been better than the standard stats would otherwise indicate. The biggest problem with the Rams’ running game has been the lack of breakaway long runs

    Not sure I find that convincing.

    Anyway, to add a little to the discussion I looked at 4 of their stats. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol/2019

    1. Runs Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).

    Rams are ranked 22nd. Not tooooo bad but not that good.

    2. Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.

    Rams are ranked 25th.

    3. Second Level Yards: Yards which this team’s running backs earn between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.

    Rams are ranked 8th.

    4. Open Field Yards: Yards which this team’s running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.

    Rams are ranked 22nd. Which echoes what they said to you about a lack of long runs.

    In terms of where they run the ball, it’s predominantly to the inside, which they count as G-C-G. The Rams run inside 51% of the time. They rank 3rd in terms of avg. yards per carry running inside.

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