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footballcommentary.com
http://www.footballcommentary.com/twomindrillprobs.htm
A model-based approach to football strategy.
May 2, 2005[Back to Article] [Home]
Win Probabilities for the Two-Minute DrillBelow we present a Table of win probabilities for the two-minute drill. The probabilities are computed using the model described in our article A Model for the Two-Minute Drill. By interpolating within the Table, one can estimate the offense’s probability of winning the game when they trail by one score in the last 2:00. The Table assumes that it’s first down and ten yards to go for a first down.
There are three sections in the Table, corresponding to whether the offense trails by more than three points, exactly three points, or fewer than three points. In the first section the listed probabilities are the offense’s probability of scoring a touchdown. In the other two sections the listed probabilities are their probability of winning the game.
Within each section there are four subsections, corresponding to the time remaining when the ball is snapped. Each subsection has four rows, corresponding to different lines of scrimmage. In each such row, the first entry is the line of scrimmage (70 means the defense’s 30-yard line); and entries two through five are the offense’s probability of winning (or of scoring a touchdown) if they have zero, one, two, or three timeouts remaining.
As an example, suppose the offense has 1st and 10, trails by 1 point with 1:00 left, is at their own 30-yard line, and has 2 timeouts. Then according to the model, the offense’s probability of winning the game is 0.3042.
For another example, suppose the offense has 1st and 10, trails by 8 points with 1:30 left, is at their own 10-yard line, and has 3 timeouts. Then according to the model, the offense’s probability of scoring a touchdown is 0.1268. Of course, to get their probability of winning the game we have to factor in the probability of making a two-point conversion, and the probability of winning in overtime. If these are 0.4 and 0.5 respectively, then the offense’s probability of winning the game is 0.1268 × 0.4 × 0.5 = 0.025.
Trailing by > 3 points. Probability of Scoring a Touchdown.
2:00 left
10 0.1174 0.1308 0.1419 0.1503
30 0.2091 0.2218 0.2311 0.2372
50 0.3345 0.3414 0.3453 0.3472
70 0.4916 0.4929 0.4934 0.49351:30 left
10 0.0824 0.0989 0.1139 0.1268
30 0.1659 0.1881 0.2059 0.2189
50 0.2991 0.3192 0.3327 0.3404
70 0.4813 0.4881 0.4914 0.49291:00 left
10 0.0424 0.0562 0.0697 0.0778
30 0.1040 0.1293 0.1510 0.1631
50 0.2270 0.2612 0.2869 0.2985
70 0.4252 0.4592 0.4770 0.48210:30 left
10 0.0095 0.0148 0.0171 0.0174
30 0.0314 0.0474 0.0533 0.0537
50 0.1199 0.1450 0.1520 0.1526
70 0.2712 0.3201 0.3283 0.3293Trailing by 3 points. Probability of Winning the Game.
2:00 left
10 0.1411 0.1527 0.1618 0.1684
30 0.2388 0.2484 0.2549 0.2590
50 0.3662 0.3705 0.3728 0.3741
70 0.5350 0.5355 0.5357 0.53571:30 left
10 0.1077 0.1244 0.1388 0.1501
30 0.2035 0.2227 0.2370 0.2468
50 0.3423 0.3565 0.3653 0.3702
70 0.5290 0.5330 0.5349 0.53551:00 left
10 0.0647 0.0815 0.0966 0.1068
30 0.1461 0.1723 0.1933 0.2059
50 0.2870 0.3147 0.3353 0.3457
70 0.4972 0.5175 0.5281 0.53180:30 left
10 0.0102 0.0209 0.0296 0.0308
30 0.0634 0.0853 0.0957 0.0975
50 0.1732 0.2115 0.2252 0.2273
70 0.3936 0.4341 0.4490 0.4514Trailing by < 3 points. Probability of Winning the Game.
2:00 left
10 0.2130 0.2240 0.2314 0.2359
30 0.3418 0.3475 0.3505 0.3521
50 0.4992 0.5006 0.5012 0.5014
70 0.7261 0.7261 0.7261 0.72611:30 left
10 0.1748 0.1956 0.2113 0.2219
30 0.3131 0.3306 0.3411 0.3469
50 0.4898 0.4961 0.4992 0.5006
70 0.7255 0.7260 0.7261 0.72611:00 left
10 0.1144 0.1405 0.1613 0.1754
30 0.2465 0.2803 0.3042 0.3172
50 0.4507 0.4745 0.4884 0.4944
70 0.7203 0.7242 0.7255 0.72600:30 left
10 0.0130 0.0356 0.0543 0.0564
30 0.1228 0.1595 0.1752 0.1781
50 0.3013 0.3663 0.3844 0.3893
70 0.6839 0.7049 0.7161 0.7185
AgamemnonWin Probability Calculator
Enter a game situation (and optional vegas line) to determine a team’s win probability at that point. For instance, if you are favored by 2 and trailing by 7 in the 4th quarter with 5 minutes left and the ball on your own 20, we calculate your Win Probability to be 4.7%.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/win_prob.cgi
Agamemnonhttp://www.footballcommentary.com/twoptchart.htm
Two-Point Conversion Chart
The chart shown below, computed using the footballcommentary.com Dynamic Programming Model, is intended to provide guidance on when to attempt a two-point conversion.
The rows are labeled by the lead after scoring a touchdown, but prior to the attempt at an extra point or points. The columns are labeled by the amount of time remaining in the game.
As an example of how to use the chart, suppose that after scoring a touchdown you trail by 5 points, with 21:00 remaining in the game (i.e. 6:00 left in the 3rd quarter). In the row corresponding to minus 5, and the column corresponding to 21:00, the entry is 0.31. This means you should attempt a two-point conversion if your probability of making it exceeds 0.31. NFL teams make about 40% of their two-point conversions, or perhaps a bit more. So when trailing by 5 with 21:00 to play, going for two is the correct play.
For another example, suppose that after scoring a touchdown you lead by 4 points, with 5:00 remaining in the game. In the row corresponding to 4, we interpolate between the columns corresponding to 3:00 and 6:00, and find that the interpolated Chart entry is 0.47. This means you should attempt a two-point conversion if your probability of making it exceeds 0.47. For most if not all NFL teams, the correct choice is to kick.
Agamemnon4th Down: When to Go for It and Why
http://theramshuddle.com/topic/4th-down-when-to-go-for-it-and-why/
Every Rams 4th Down
http://nyt4thdownbot.com/team/rams
AgamemnonPresent roster = 38 plus 17 FAs = 55 players. I count the 5 RFAs at minimun tender. That equals 7.5 million.
..
Estimated draft for 2016 = ~6 million for our 8 draftees.
For each player we draft, we can subtract 0.5 million, cause we are replacing a player with a draftee. 8 x 0.5 = 4 million.
We add 8 players, we can subtract 4.0 million. We can figure the draft expense to be 6.0 million – 4.0 million = 2.0 million.
..
Say we spend no more for IR and we carry all our excess cap over to next year. The Cap we have left now is ~5 million.
..
Cutting 2 minimum players, (Dunbar and Bryant) to get the roster to 53 gains a 1.0 million credit.)
..
Estimated cap for next year is 155 million.
Cap Space 2016 = 37.5 million
..
FAs to sign = 11
(All the RFAs are already figured, see notes above. I am not counting Dunbar, he is minimum wage.
Anyway, 17 FAs – Dunbar – 5 RFAs = 11FAs.
..Ok, I think that I corrected all my mistakes. 😉
Of course this will change everytime the Rams make a roster move. But, it should be close enough for anyone who is interested to to look and see something about our Cap Space. I assumed we sign all our RFAs to minimum tenders. I added all the credits and expenses I could think of. I made no cuts or extensions to players already under contract, ie Long, Saffold or anyone else. I did some of the math like I did, so that I can just add any player that is signed before next year and I know we are going to add 11 FAs. I just don’t know who they will be. If we cut somebody, or trade them, replacement cost might have to be figured. Agamemnon
http://overthecap.com/calculator/st-louis-rams/
You can go here and play with the Cap all you want. It seems to do a good job. Since they estimate the 2016 cap at 150M and they don’t count any of the yearly expenses or any carry over, you are probably going to be close to the actual cap space if you ust use their number and don’t worry about anything else. The expenses and credits should all even out. imo
When I used this, by cutting Cook and nothing else, I was able to keep all the FAs except Fairley. I just did one year to keep it simple. I did the year as if it was the average of a multiyear contract. Agamemnon
You can go here to compare salaries at each position. => http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback
Agamemnon
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